The new energy vehicle segment continues to adjust.
Entering 2024, this decline has not stopped, as of January 29**, the CS New Energy Vehicle Index (399976) has fallen by 1413%。(Data**: wind).
What makes many "new energy people" puzzled is that the new energy vehicle sector is not good because of bad fundamentals? No, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2023 will hit a record high, and exports have also become a beautiful business card. Looking at the recent 2023 performance forecasts disclosed by new energy vehicle companies, the performance is quite impressive, and some companies have doubled.
For example, on the evening of January 29, a leading company announced its own results, and its sales hit a record high, and it is expected to achieve a net profit of about 30 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of more than 74%, and it is expected to earn about 79.45 million yuan per day.
This performance is explosive, right? But the next day, the car company's stock price was **3%. (Data**: wind).
What is the reason for this contradiction?
The Oriental ** Equity Research Department believes that in 2023, there will be no lot of good performance growth directions, but this reflects the past data. The stock price did not perform and did not **, mainly because everyone was worried about the future and worried that the current high growth rate would decline in 2024. The performance in 2023 will be good, the growth rate will be fast, and the valuation will be low, but what is even more terrifying is that if the performance growth rate declines in 2024, the valuation will become higher, that is, the more it falls, the more expensive the valuation.
Therefore, the new energy vehicle sector cannot get out
Indeed, "volume" became one of the keywords of the new energy vehicle industry last year, major manufacturers are releasing new cars, improving configuration, all kinds of fancy price reductions from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, the market is also cautiously observing, such an excessive "volume" will not cut corporate profits, and then damage the normal development of the industry?
This year, the overall decline of new energy, can it return in 2024? **How should I invest in the future? This has become a concern for many investors.
The Oriental ** Equity Research Department believes that the ** in 2024 is expected to be better than in 2023. Specifically, the overcapacity of the terminal of new energy vehicles is reflected in the continuous emergence of manufacturers and the improvement of competitiveness, so it will have some impact on vehicle companies, but in the midstream battery and material links, overcapacity will start from 2022-2023, and now it is basically about to reach the limit, and it will start early and end early, so the situation in the midstream may be better in 2024.
For the investment method, the Oriental ** Equity Research Department believes that the new energy industry is essentially a manufacturing industry, so there will be a problem with the production capacity cycle, but the length of this cycle is difficult to judge, and it also needs to be judged in combination with multiple factors such as fundamental trends, stock prices and valuation positions, and domestic and foreign macro policy environments.
The winter of new energy vehicles is a bit long, but the valuation has reached a historical low, and the performance of car companies is outstanding.