On January 30, BYD released its 2023 performance forecast, and the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 29 billion yuan to 31 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7446% to 8649%；The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profits was 27.4 billion yuan to 29.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7522% to 8992%。
Financial Investment News reporter Liu Min
According to the data of the Passenger Association, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars in China in 2023 will be 216990,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 56%。In 2023, the cumulative production of new energy passenger vehicles will be 8.92 million units, a year-on-year increase of 337%。The Financial Investment News reporter noticed that BYD will achieve sales of 3.02 million new energy vehicles in 2023, becoming the leader of China's auto market and the global new energy vehicle market, but the company's share price will be more than 20% in 2023. In addition, in the context of the growth of new energy vehicle production and sales, the net profit of many new energy vehicle industry chain companies in 2023 will also increase significantly.
BYD's net profit hit a record high
BYD's performance forecast shows that the new energy vehicle industry will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend in 2023, and the company's new energy vehicle sales will hit a record high, further consolidating its leading position as the world's No. 1 new energy vehicle sales. Despite the fiercer competition in the industry, the company has achieved significant improvement in profitability and demonstrated strong resilience by virtue of the continuous improvement of brand power, the rapid growth of overseas sales, the continuous expansion of scale advantages and the strong ability to control the cost of the industrial chain.
BYD said that in terms of mobile phone parts and assembly business, benefiting from the increase in the business share of overseas major customers and the recovery of Android customer demand, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and new smart products, the capacity utilization rate has been significantly improved, the business structure has been further optimized, the profitability has been significantly improved, and the profit has achieved substantial growth.
Judging from the single-quarter performance, BYD's performance in the fourth quarter of 2023 decreased quarter-on-quarter. The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the fourth quarter of 2023 to be approximately 76$3.3 billion to $963.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44% to 318%, down 75% to 267%；The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was about 80$5.1 billion to $1035.1 billion yuan.
Excluding BYD Electronics, BYD's net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2023 will be 79900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 158%, corresponding to a net profit of 8,459 yuan per vehicle, and 1. in the third quarter of 202310,000 yuan, down month-on-month, but still maintained a relatively high level. Industry insiders believe that the month-on-month decline in net profit of bicycles is mainly due to the impact of the amplification of discounts in the peak season in the fourth quarter of last year.
BYD's Dream Day was held on January 16 this year, and the company focused on the release of a new strategy for the intelligent development of new energy vehicles, vehicle intelligence, Xuanji architecture, a new DILink intelligent cockpit platform and DIPILOT intelligent driving platform. Industry insiders believe that BYD's dream day fully demonstrates BYD's own hardware advantages and software in the future in the direction of intelligent and electric integration, and in 2024, the company's Xuanji intelligent architecture will realize the efficient integration of electrification and intelligence.
BYD's share price is not moving well
It is worth noting that despite BYD's record sales and performance, the company's stock price is clearly under pressure. In the secondary market, BYD's A-share share price will accumulate **2261%。On January 30, BYD's A-shares continued to fall, falling more than 4% intraday, and BYD's Hong Kong shares also fell more than 6%. As of **, BYD A shares closed down 363% to 17197 yuan shares, a new low in the stage, with a cumulative decline of 13 since the beginning of 202420%。
Morgan Stanley pointed out in its report that BYD's sales peaked in the fourth quarter of last year and its high-end product mix performed well, but its profit peaked compared with the third quarter**, and the expansion of car sales discounts and rebates to ** merchants may be the main reasons. Fourth-quarter results may weigh on stock prices, but they will not trigger significant volatility. BYD's sales in the first quarter of this year will become the focus of market attention. Morgan Stanley believes that the quarter-on-quarter contraction of bicycle earnings should be related to a number of factors, including increased promotion, and the relatively high proportion of sales of low-priced champion models.
Judging from the sales data in 2023, the BYD Denza brand has annual sales of 12780,000 units; Yangwang Auto and Formula Leopard Auto officially started delivery in November 2023, and the Yangwang brand sold 1,593 vehicles in December 2023, an increase of 290% month-on-month; The Formula Leopard brand sold 5,086 vehicles, an increase of 712% month-on-month. In terms of overseas sales, BYD will sell a total of 24 new energy passenger vehicles overseas in 2023270,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3342%。
CICC pointed out that BYD's technology cycle and product cycle are strong, and exports and high-end have consolidated its profit base, and it is expected to update to DM5 in 20240 and e-platform 40。Among them, DM5The fuel economy of 0 is expected to be further improved, and the main model will be iterated. At the same time, the BYD brand will also launch a number of new models such as the L series, the Hiace series, and the Yuan UP, and the product cycle will be significantly stronger than in 2023. CICC believes that the completion of BYD's high-end brand product matrix and the development of the export market are expected to drive the improvement of product structure.
Huaan** believes that in the range of less than 100,000 yuan**, BYD's sales volume in 2023 will reach 2250,000 units, accounting for 19% of the new energy market share and 9% of the terminal market share; The range of 100,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan is the basic price of the company's sales volume, and the scale effect gives the company the advantage of pricing power; The range of 200,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan is the second largest sales volume of BYD, and it is also the largest belt with large incremental space. In the context of the industry's leading war, the company can rely on the advantage of pricing power to steadily increase the market share of the basic market, and maximize the company's profits while reducing prices.
18 companies have doubled their net profits
In the context of the continuous increase in the penetration of domestic auto brands and the strong demand in overseas markets, A-share listed companies of automobile vehicles and related parts will show strong profitability in 2023. Wind data shows that in the new energy vehicle sector, 18 companies have disclosed their 2023 annual performance forecasts, of which 14 companies are "promising". Judging from the upper limit of the year-on-year increase in net profit, there are 7 companies whose net profit may have doubled.
On January 30, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which is engaged in the independent research and development, production and sales of power lithium-ion batteries (packs) for new energy vehicles, disclosed its 2023 performance forecast. Gotion Hi-Tech expects to achieve operating income of 31 billion yuan to 33 billion yuan in 2023, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is expected to be 800 million yuan to 1.1 billion yuan, an increase of 157% to 253% year-on-year.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech said that the company will benefit from the rapid development of the new energy industry in 2023, the market demand for power and energy storage lithium batteries is strong, and the company's lithium battery business will develop rapidly. At the same time, the company's overseas business has shown initial results, with further improvement of market development capabilities and further improvement of energy storage business delivery capabilities. The company's first-class chain layout has begun to take shape, and the cost of raw materials has further decreased.
It is worth mentioning that Founder Motor will turn losses into profits in 2023. The company expects to achieve annual revenue of 2.5 billion yuan to 2.6 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 100 million yuan to 13.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14277% to 15774%；Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 20 million yuan to 30 million yuan. Founder Motor said that during the reporting period, the company's new energy vehicle drive motor business overcame the adverse effects of fluctuations in the downstream market of customers and orders less than expected, and the overall revenue increased slightly year-on-year. At the same time, due to the improvement of the company's sales of drive motor products, the increase in shipments of flat wire motors and high-voltage motors, and the increase in the proportion of sales of intelligent controller products, the company's comprehensive operating gross profit margin increased by 4% year-on-year, and the company achieved a turnaround from non-operating net profit.
In addition, Yutong Bus, China Dynamics, and FAW Jiefang are all expected to achieve growth in 2023, and their forecast net profit year-on-year growth ceilings are respectively54%。