China***, which celebrates its 70th anniversary, has delivered a very impressive report card in the past 2023 - the annual automobile export volume ranked first in the world for the first time. Among them, there is another highlight that is worth paying attention to: the export volume of new energy vehicles is full of momentum, approaching one million units from January to October this year. It can be seen that independent new energy vehicles have become an "important engine" to promote the construction of China's "automobile power". It is no exaggeration to say that China has become a major manufacturer and seller of automobiles. So, has new energy gone overseas, and how far is China from becoming an automobile power?
According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the "China Automobile Association"), from January to November this year, China's total automobile exports reached 44120,000 units, up 58% y/y. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's automobile exports will reach 522 in 202310,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 574%。In the first 11 months of this year, Japan's total vehicle exports totaled only 3.99 million units, up 15% year-on-year, but the final result for the whole of 2023 is expected to be only 4.3 million units. That is to say, since the first half of the year's automobile exports surpassed Japan's, China's automobile exports this year will officially rank first in the world. It is worth mentioning that this is also the first time that China's automobile exports have ranked first, which is of great historical significance to China's automobile industry.
Picture from NHK News.
At the same time, the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also show that the number of people in 2022 is 6790,000 units, and the total annual export volume of China's new energy vehicles will increase significantly in 2023. At the 2023 ** Economic Work Conference, boosting new energy vehicles has become a priority. As an important pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry is regarded as the "ballast stone" for the steady growth of the industrial economy. New energy vehicles are the main direction of the transformation and upgrading of the global automobile industry, and it is also a strategic choice for the high-quality development of China's automobile industry.
In recent years, China's new energy vehicle industry has developed strongly and is growing into a new economic engine. In 2023, China's new energy vehicle production and sales, retail penetration, and market share have all seen considerable growth. However, at the same time, China's own brand new energy vehicles are not "far ahead", and there is still a lot of room for improvement in exports. Despite this, the field of new energy vehicles has gradually become the main pillar to help the high-quality development of China's automobile industry and the construction of an "automobile power".
"Steady progress" is the main feature of the development of new energy vehicles in China in 2023. In terms of sales, the data released by the China Automobile Association showed that in November this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles broke the million mark for the first time, reaching 10740,000 and 10260,000 units, up 392% and 30%. As of November, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles were 84260,000 and 83040,000 units, up 34% y/y5% and 367%, with a market share of 308%。
Specifically, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles in November were 9290,000 units, up 117%, a year-on-year increase of 339%；Exports slowed down to 970,000 units, down 218%, a year-on-year increase of 16%。From January to November 2023, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles will be 72120,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 317%；Exit 10910,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 835%。In general, China's new energy vehicles still maintain a high speed of development.
Looking back on 2023, China's new energy passenger vehicle market will show a trend of gradual recovery at a low start, but it will still show a good upward trend overall, which belongs to the benign development of "steady progress". In the first two quarters of this year, affected by factors such as monthly sales overdraft and the withdrawal of subsidy policies, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles declined significantly compared with the monthly sales in the second half of last year. At the same time, with the sharp price reduction of Tesla and fuel vehicles, many domestic new energy vehicle companies have followed up the price reduction strategy, forming an "involution" of the industry to a certain extent. Despite this, China's new energy vehicle sales still withstood market pressure and maintained a good growth momentum. It is worth affirming that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have always remained within a reasonable range, and there has been no relatively large difference between supply and demand, and the overall safety and stability have been maintained.
To sum up, China's new energy vehicle industry has a considerable scale, and is resilient and resilient, with a certain ability to resist risks and bear pressure.
In terms of market segmentation, according to the China Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the "China Passenger Car Association"), 9 of the top 10 NEV retail sales from January to November 2023 are domestic brands. Among them, BYD won with 35An absolute advantage of 3% tops the list. Entering the new energy era, China's automobile industry has gradually changed from a "follower" to a "leader".
This year, the market share of domestic brands has also increased in line with the sales of new energy vehicles. According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2023, a total of 1,297 Chinese brand passenger cars were sold80,000 units, accounting for 55% of total passenger car sales8%, with a share increase of 6 over the same period last year6%。It should be noted that this is also the highest value since 2006.
According to the data on the sales ratio of the passenger association, independent brands have become the first choice of Chinese car owners, and they have a large lead over the popular factions in the era of fuel vehicles such as Germany and Japan. In 2023, Chinese brands will occupy 52% of the market share, surpassing many foreign brands to become the mainstream of the Chinese market. Among them, the rise of independent new energy vehicles has played an important role.
In addition, according to the statistics of the China Passenger Car Association, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in total vehicle sales) exceeded 40% for the first time in November 2023, reaching 404%。This means that for every 10 cars sold in China, 4 are new energy vehicles. According to the statistics of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe in 2022 will be 229%。Therefore, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has been in the forefront of the world, and the development scale of the new energy vehicle industry is still expanding.
In recent years, China's new energy passenger vehicle sales growth rate has been higher than the world average, and its share of the global market is also rising. Although there was a drop in 2020, from 52 in 20194% to 40 for the year8%, but it rebounded to 52% in 2021 and crossed the 60% mark the following year to reach 625%。From January to October 2023, China accounted for 62% of the world's share, and in the fourth quarter, it came to 676%。China has gradually become the world's largest market for new energy vehicles.
It should be noted that China's own brand new energy vehicles still have a lot of room for improvement in going overseas. First of all, fuel vehicles are still the main force of China's automobile exports. Although the export volume is large, it must be noted that the influence and product strength of fuel vehicles are still joint ventures or international brands. The data shows that in China's export of automobiles, joint venture brands account for a large proportion, and the export performance of China's completely independent brand fuel vehicles is not so strong. OEM of foreign car companies is still one of the main status quo of China's automobile exports.
Tesla, as the world's leading electric vehicle company, accounts for a considerable share of China's new energy passenger vehicle exports and total passenger car exports. In 2022, most of China's electric vehicles exported to the EU were American and European cars produced in China, while only 40% of Chinese local brand vehicles were produced. Among them, Tesla China exported 300,000 electric vehicles in 2022, equivalent to more than 40% of its annual production, and most of them are sold to the European market. In addition, BMW and Renault will produce the ix3 and Dacia Spring through their joint ventures in China for export to the European market.
However, it is worth affirming that independent brands are still taking a solid step on the road to sea. In 2023, more than 300,000 commercial vehicles will be cleared at Khorgos port. A large part of them are new energy vehicles of independent brands such as Hongqi, BYD, Geely, and Ideal. According to the General Administration of Customs, one out of every three cars exported by China is an electric passenger vehicle.
Last year, independent car companies such as BYD, Nezha Automobile, and Changan Automobile announced that they would build overseas factories in Thailand. Previously, SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motor had entered the Southeast Asian market through their plants in Thailand.
In addition to car companies, power battery companies such as CATL, as well as auto parts companies such as Joyson Electronics and Tuopu Group, are accelerating their overseas expansion. China's *** has officially changed from "input" to "output". Although the overall scale is still lacking, the momentum of development is strong.
This shows a current situation of China's automobile exports, that is, the OEM of foreign car companies still accounts for half of China's automobile exports, and China's independent brands are still in the catch-up stage. However, with the continuous breakthrough and development of new energy technology, the speed of independent brands going overseas will continue to increase. The most important thing at the moment is to be both positive and acknowledged and calm and patient.
Overall, China's auto exports in 2023 surpassed Japan to become the world's largest for the first time, which is a milestone to celebrate, but not to be complacent. On the one hand, whether the production and sales volume broke the 30 million mark last year, or the market share of independent brands has exceeded half, it can fully reflect the great progress of China's industry; On the other hand, the proportion of domestic exports is relatively small, and the dilemma of scattered exports of new energy vehicles still exists. However, this reflects that China's automobile industry, especially in the new energy vehicle industry, is undergoing a development transformation from "quantity" to "quality". It is not far from the automobile power, and before being proud, please calm down and make steady progress.