Trump (later we will call him Wang) mentioned many times in his campaign speech that if he succeeds in the election, he will impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goodsThe Muddy Waters report analyzed: From the logic of understanding the king, don't say that the 60% tariff is imposed, even if the tariff is 600%, it is reasonable.
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In an exclusive interview with Fox News, when asked by a reporter about China policyHe said that if he wins, he will not start a war with China, but he will continue to impose high tariffs, and at least 60% of the tariffs will be levied on all goods imported from China.
Many analysts believe that the imposition of 60% tariffs is pure nonsense, because it will cause the US goods to skyrocket, it will cause inflation, it will cause the Fed's efforts to raise interest rates in vain, and it will make the US economy more chaotic.
David, a well-known American economist. GoldmanIn the February 24 issue of the "Asia Times" published an article saidJust as the king will not jump from the Trump building, the United States will not impose 60% tariffs on the great powers of the East. Because the consequences of doing these two things are the same, both are death.
David. Goldman in the process of proving his pointA term called capital goods is quotedHe said that if the United States wanted to produce anything, it had to buy capital goods first, and that the United States relied on imports for capital goods, mainly from China. Regardless of whether the conclusion is right or wrong, the logic is often the same, but the difference in arguments leads to the difference in conclusion. The author thinks it's a very interesting noun and logic.
So what are capital goods? The goods used for reproduction are the capital goods。Bread, for example, is a consumer good, not a capital good. And the bread machine and flour are capital goods. By analogy, if the missiles and radars produced by Raytheon are consumer goods of the Pentagon, then what are the capital goods of Raytheon? David. Goldman analyzed Greg, the CEO of Raytheon. What Hayes said in June last year: We have thousands of ** companies in China, and decoupling is impossible.
However, the Muddy Waters reporter believes that it is not necessarily stupid to say that a 60% tariff will be imposed, even if the king imposes a 600% tariff.
He graduated from the Wharton School of Business, he is a proper American elite, and the logic of Wang's tariffs is particularly clear.
The tax measures are not only to crack down on China's exports, but more importantly, to divert China's industrial chain. His goal is to spin up and restructure global industrial chains, strengthen the position of countries like Mexico in U.S. merchandise imports, and further marginalize China.
We hope to diversify and de-risk the industrial chain by transferring the assembly part of the industrial chain to countries such as Mexico, Vietnam or India. This spin-off strategy may be further expanded to involve more links in the industrial chain.
Despite knowing that Wang has **, his Democratic opponents still maintain a policy of high tariffsBecause they believe that this is an effective means to destroy China's industrial chain. They would rather endure the short-term policy than stick to this policy.
Understand Wang's economic strategy shows his high courage, intelligence, and emotional intelligence. He believed that even if the United States faced a debt problem, other countries would not dare to easily challenge the status of the United States, and he advocated the stability of the American economy by printing money. This practice may lead to more debt, but is also seen by him as a necessary means to maintain economic advantage.
The United States is like a company that is too big to die, as long as it is not short of money, it will not die, so the United States will print more money in a domineering and rogue manner, and Japan seems to have learned this trick.
A characteristic of the U.S. strategy is the use of "gray zone tactics," that is, moving between war and peace, and responding flexibly to changing situations. This tactic may also be applied in economic warfare, where the United States may use the best people to carry out its economic strategy.
Therefore, it is better not to think that the king is crazy again, he does not necessarily impose such a high tax on all goods, but will follow his calculations step by step.
Netizens, this is not a playhouse, this is a ** war, this is a war. When confronted with the best people in the United States, we need to recognize their identity and purpose, and adopt effective strategies to deal with them. On strategic defense, strategic stalemate, and strategic ** in protracted warfare, and other strategies are equally applicable in economic warfare.