A new season of sports
It turns out that if you don't have enough money in your pocket, you can't buy anything. There were a few trades on this tedious trade deadline, but few of them had a real follow-up impact, as asset-starved teams were largely left with scraps this week. Not a single All-Star-caliber player has changed teams in the past 48 hours, with only two players making more than $20 million a year (Hayward and Lowry). (Dinwiddie was once on the 20 million annual salary list, but the Raptors cut him after he played 48 games, ending his 1.5 million bonus for 50 games in his contract.) Even more sad: he missed two games at the start of the season. ）
You can blame this megatrend on the following two points.
First, super big deals need to involve assets, and the kind of team that should make big trades has not many assets left.
Teams that expect to be competitive, such as the Nuggets, Heat, Bucks, Timberwolves, Celtics, Mavericks, Suns, Clippers, Cavaliers, and Lakers who can broaden the definition of "competitiveness," are limited in their ability to make such big trades because they used up most or all of their draft pick assets in previous trades. It's a legacy of the big trades of recent years, when many teams gave away control of draft picks for five consecutive years just to get a star.
Even the few deals that these asset pools have dried up for the team are a reflection of the operational pressures they face after a series of big moves. The Mavericks gave away a future first-round pick swap just to get a backup center, while the Suns had to continue to trade their draft pick swap rights back and forth. So it's no wonder that Murray can't trade Dejounte Murray for anything good; Competitive teams used to want to pay the highest price for him, but now they can only find a few coins in the gap of the couch to spend.
Second, many teams will start operating sooner, rather than waiting until the last minute to start the action without worry.
You didn't see any star changes this week because these trades had already happened: Harden, Siakam, Rozier and Anunoby all changed teams earlier in the season. The Rockets traded for the injured Adams a week ago. The Pistons and Wizards even made a Muscala trade before February.
The lack of available draft pick assets can lead to some "falling short of expectations" where teams with expiring contracts with qualifying players to trade will either choose to accept a lower return than they expected, or they will turn around and wait for a better deal in the summer**. The Pacers could only accept Hield for three second-round picks, and the Nets accepted the Suns for O'Neal for the same** (and the draft picks were not of high quality). Monte Morris traded the Pistons for only one second-round pick. Other expiring contracts, such as Burks, Olynyk and Hayward, exist only as part of the team's more holistic trade plan.
These are deals that are really sent out; There are many more that can't be sent out at all. With Bruce Brown and Trent staying with the Raptors, Tyus Jones and Wright staying with the Wizards, Fultz staying with the Magic and Marshall staying with the Pelicans, all of these players will go to free agency, even if you know they most likely won't return to their parent team. (Brown theoretically has a 23 million team option for next season; But you might be more willing to believe in the presence of Bigfoot than to believe that the team is exercising its team options. ）
So, the frenzy of buying and selling players in the market is over, and you'll feel like the trade deadline has turned into a flea market rather than a shopping mall for luxury hotels. The main theme of the trade deadline is basically for teams to throw away players they don't want, or to trade for players who want a little bit more.
Unofficially, in the 36 hours before the trade deadline, there were 17 trades involving 46 active players (the Nuggets and Clippers also made a trade that didn't involve any NBA players, which is not counted here).
Of those 46 players, only 18 can be described as having the presence that he wants to have next. Many of the 46ers were laid off immediately, and others are sure to join them soon.
In some ways, this is an inevitable follow-up to the trade: a contract with a matching salary, and the buying team will not be willing to send their best or favorite player as a gesture of friendship. In addition, the trading of dumping contracts has always been part of the game of league operations, and this year continues to reflect this, with four transactions made purely to avoid taxes and throw away wages.
Still, this year's level of quietness is somewhat unusual. Maybe we're used to the Hawks' annual play, where they've been caught up in trade rumors of a key starter all year long, but ended up doing nothing, and we're used to the Bulls management not dialing the numbers of the remaining 29 managers.
But the Hawks and Bulls are definitely not the only teams that have stood still this year; With the exception of a small payroll operation, the Nuggets, Heat, Clippers, Bucks, Kings, Pelicans, Warriors, Lakers, Cavaliers and Magic all remained the same. Heading into Thursday's game, they have nine spots out of the league's 17 winning percentages, plus one Warriors. (The Warriors went 24-25 at the deadline, but have clearly looked stronger than that lately, including beating the Pacers on Thursday night.) ）
The Mavericks and Knicks made the most important moves, with the Knicks continuing their step-by-step progress, steadily climbing up the Eastern Conference standings and acquiring Burks and Bojan Bogdanovic without sacrificing any significant assets; They need another point guard and another center, but there are still 3 roster slots open that can be used in the buyout market.
As for the Mavericks, they continue to throw aside all the warnings and build a winning team around Doncic and Irving. I'm not so sure they sent away the only good asset left (a 2027 first-round pick) to trade Grant Williams for P.Sj.Washington, is not a correct operation; A more patient approach would be to wait until draft night in 2024 so they have three first-round picks available in 2031 and can go after bigger names. The Mavericks aren't in the ranks of championship contenders right now, and Washington and Gafford aren't going to take them to that level.
I've written before that Washington's performance with the Hornets has been mixed, but the Gafford trade was interesting because the Mavericks gave up an unprotected 2028 first-round pick swap to get the Thunder's 2024 first-round pick, and then traded that pick (and the garbage contract Holmes they didn't want) for Gafford for. Gafford is a tough rim protector who has quietly played a solid year with the Wizards, with two seasons left on his contract at the end of this season, and although the amount is a little higher than you might expect ($28 million in total), this is a deal that is undoubtedly the right thing for the rebuilding Wizards to do.
The real story of the deal, though, is that the Thunder made a glamorous gamble and they got a real casino coin. There's a good chance they'll save a game and get nothing back with a first-rounder. But on the flip side, they could be very strong in 2028 and the Mavericks probably not so much so that they would move up a lot of first-round picks and might be worth giving up a 26th pick in 2024. Even if the Mavericks are average, like 18 picks, and if the Thunder are 28 picks, their returns are substantial. Of course, the Thunder's broader thinking is that they have too many draft picks, and it's more worthwhile to risk a higher-ceiling result than to secure a late 20-pick pick. As long as there is a chance to get a top-5 pick, even if the odds are low, it is worth the gamble.
Speaking of adventures, the Thunder also made another interesting trade, sending two second-round picks in exchange for long-term injury Hayward who wanted to use him in the sprint for the second half of the season. The Thunder definitely need a second-team connector like this, and the 3-for-1 trade with the Hornets also allows them to clean up roster congestion and useless residue on next year's payroll. The Thunder are close to having cap salary space this summer, and you'll be curious how the Thunder can use that much space.
In addition, we have seen a general trend in which teams will try to lock in contracts with low wages in advance of the summer when salary space becomes available. The Raptors threw away some wages but got Abaji's cheap contract; The same goes for the Pistons, who got Grimes and Von Tycchio (regardless of the Pistons' eventual new contract to Von Tycchio, his salary is $3.9 million, but it is assumed that the Pistons don't want him to start more than six times or play more than 839 minutes in the rest of the season.) ）
And the huge restrictions on luxury tax teams in the collective bargaining agreement have left the Suns and Celtics in opposite directions. The Celtics are willing to pay a premium for Tillman because he's a cheap helper right now and the team can afford to re-sign him with his bird rights in the summer. The same goes for the Suns, who are getting O'Neal, who is about to become a free agent, and Roddy, who is coming from the Grizzlies, who has a cheap contract until 2026.
The Suns' trade would require a complex first-round pick swap, which would make a wider range of lottery gambling than the Thunder Mavericks trade just mentioned; Unless the Grizzlies have a better record than the Wizards, Magic and Suns in 2026, this pick swap will not be given, but for giving up a fringe player who is already squeezed into a full roster, the Grizzlies get a good chip.
The new collective bargaining agreement has also had an impact on other levels, including the last time the Warriors and Clippers used cash creatively in a trade before the new post-2024 rules prohibit teams beyond the local league from doing so.
Overall, though, it was a really uneventful trading deadline. Even though the rules for wage matching have been loosened under the new collective bargaining agreement, too many strong teams have been cheated, either because of the luxury tax, the lack of tradable draft picks, or both. As you look to the future, you wonder if this is just an unexpected moment of the year or whether it marks the dawn of a new trade deadline.