Rumor has it that the auction of imported corn has started again, and the reserve price has been lowered by 350 yuan
Just after the end of the Chinese New Year, there is another bad news! Rumor has it that:
From February 21, Hunan and Hubei, which have grain reserves in China, have started a new round of bidding for imported grains, with a starting price of 2,300 yuan per ton, 350 yuan lower than the previous one.
In the absence of real supply and demand support, it is usually the "weather vane" that guides the market by policy! Therefore, once this news appears, it will be a heavy blow to the corn that has already started.
Do you remember the ** in late November and early December, the reason is because "the minimum purchase price per ton of imported corn is reduced by 50-100"!
Whether this news is true or not, one thing that can be determined is that the current corn market in China is indeed in internal and external troubles, which means that the future will be under great pressure.
On the global front, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the World Food Association and other three major organizations have made rough estimates of the trend of global food demand in 2024 and 2025. Overall, world output will hit a record high, while year-end inventories will increase every year.
On the supply and demand side, it is natural that they are also subject to a variety of tests, such as weather changes and geographical conflicts during production. But now, one thing is certain, and that is that the global food supply is abundant and cheap.
Since China is the world's largest importer of grain, in the past three years, a slight fluctuation in the world will have a certain impact on domestic grain **. Therefore, from the perspective of the international background, after more than three years of relatively large **, the current corn ** has undoubtedly entered a bear market.
In China, with the new crop of corn planting, with the arrival of a new round of corn, most of the ** is declining, so, ordinary farmers either actively or passively hoard food, or are selling relatively slowly before the New Year, coupled with the arrival of the New Year, with the arrival of the New Year, with the gradual warming of the Spring Festival, people have a certain psychological pressure on future food sales. Especially in the spot market, the ** of the No. 05 contract is converted to the purchase price of 077 yuan kg, which is also to alleviate the sales pressure after the Spring Festival.
In terms of channels, enterprises did not establish or reduce inventory during the Spring Festival, but relied on their own marketing channels to pick and go, which is a helpless move taken by enterprises in the current market situation. There are two important factors that contribute to this situation:
First, whether it is a direct acquisition or a direct acquisition, it is difficult to achieve a smooth ***, especially after the sharp rise in November, some traders have tried to stock up on a small extent, but the subsequent large ** has made businessmen dispel the idea of building a warehouse.
Second, due to the small scale of grain this year, it did not play a "leader" role. In the past, many small and medium-sized businesses would follow the pace of large enterprises, but large businesses paid more attention to their own profits, and the business model of "going with the market" made it difficult for small and medium-sized businesses to make decisions.
With the advent of the Chinese New Year, the situation is gradually clear, the first corn has fallen back to the edge of planting costs, major grain companies have entered the market, and some businessmen have been hoarding food, it is expected that after the end of the holiday, this situation will continue.
As far as the terminal grain enterprises are concerned, the current inventory days of feed enterprises are basically the same as that of the previous month, and there is no sign of significant decline. The stocking of the year before the year is dominated by deep processing companies, so there are signs of rising inventory days this month, which is not only because of the stocking during the New Year, but also because of the beginning of the school and the end of the New Year, which means that the stocking before the Spring Festival is not just the stocking before the New Year, there is another reason, that is, the school has to start classes. Therefore, the final market demand will have a neutral positive effect on the corn futures price.
In terms of meteorology, with the rapid heating of the Spring Festival holiday and the extension of the resumption of work, rain and snow have occurred in major producing areas such as Northeast China and North China, although the supply of grain has been limited to a certain extent, but this is also a "double-edged sword", on the one hand, it has delayed the time of grain sales, and on the other hand, it has also brought a negative impact on the storage of grain.
From the above aspects, Xin Nonming said that due to supply-side reasons, in the near future, due to climate reasons, the first corn is in a stable state in the near future, however, with the passage of time and the warming of the climate, it is expected that the upcoming sales peak will bring new pressure to the corn **, although after the Spring Festival, a large number of buyers and the accelerating sales speed, can offset the "stampede" effect brought about by the "more and more selling", however, the current corn ** in the first quarter The ** where the center of gravity continues to go down has not changed.