Typhoon No. 12 "Hongyan" in the northwest Pacific has stopped forming, while Typhoon No. 9 "Sula" and Typhoon No. 11 "Haikui" are still developing. There is a common saying, "One typhoon has just made landfall, and another typhoon has come", and this seems to be quite a reflection of this year's situation. Although Typhoon No. 9 "Sula" has made landfall in China, specifically on the southern coast of Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province, its impact has not ended.
This is because Super Typhoon Sula has been moving along the coastline and continues to move westward. According to trend analysis, Typhoon No. 9 "Sula" may make landfall in Guangdong, China again in the near future, and may even make a third landfall.
The first landfall had already occurred when Typhoon Sula made landfall on the southern coast of Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province, with maximum winds of 14 (45 m/s) near the centre and a minimum pressure of 950 hPa near the centre.
The second landfall is expected to occur in the early morning to the morning of September 3 on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula with winds of 20-23 meters per second, or 8-9, before entering the sea surface of the Beibu Gulf. It is worth noting that some institutions believe that the typhoon may make landfall in Hainan, China, again.
Therefore, it can be said that Typhoon No. 9 "Sula" is likely to make landfall twice, three or even more times in Guangdong, Hainan and other regions of China. Due to the relatively complex track of the typhoon, it is mainly affected by the instability of the steering airflow, and its variation space is large. Due to the influence of the typhoon's development, the typhoon may weaken rapidly as it moves in a westerly direction.
Interestingly, there is a large change in the path of the typhoon, the GFS (Global Forecasting System) **, which shows that Typhoon No. 9 "Sula" may re-enter the northwest Pacific region after bypassing China's Hainan Island. The peculiarities of this path have attracted attention. Judging from the simulated situation, Typhoon "Sula" will basically disappear near the Gulf of Tonkin in China, which may seem quite strange to many people.
In general, this year's No. 9 typhoon "Sula" has a greater impact on Guangdong. Judging from the radar data, although the typhoon may not be further strengthened, its central circulation has been affected to some extent and is constantly collapsing. One side is already largely bare, so the impact may not be too great, even during subsequent landings.
However, we must once again remain vigilant against the incoming Typhoon No. 11, Haikui, as its path has been dramatically adjusted and the winds are rapidly intensifying.
This change has come as a surprise to many, as the typhoon was initially expected to move northward from China's Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions, but it has adjusted westward again and again.
According to the latest data provided by our country, the typhoon is expected to continue to strengthen, and the eye of the typhoon has been formed, which is expected to reach its strongest on September 3, and the wind force will reach the level of a 16-level super typhoon. It is possible to make landfall on the southeastern coast of Taiwan Island around the evening of the 3rd (50-55 m s, 15-16 magnitude), and then pass through Taiwan Island and gradually weaken.
Subsequently, the typhoon may continue to approach the southern part of Fujian to the eastern coast of Guangdong, or linger in the Taiwan Strait.
However, based on long-term data from the EC and GFS, there is also a possibility of re-entry into the Pacific Northwest, with the GFS even considering a possible trip to Japan, but with less intensity.
Therefore, judging from the current situation, this may become another typhoon affecting our country, and it is indeed "a typhoon has just made landfall, and another typhoon is coming one after another", which is too frequent.
Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the development of Typhoon No. 11 "Haikui" this year, which is indeed very frequent and is constantly approaching our country.
In addition to these two typhoons that have already formed, there are also two typhoons that have formed in the early stages, and this year's Typhoon No. 13 "Mandarin Duck" may even usher in Typhoon No. 14 "Little Dog"?!
Judging from the two typhoons that formed in the early days, the wind speed is still maintained at 15kt, which is equivalent to 75m s, not yet powerful.
According to satellite imagery, one of the two typhoons looks relatively good in the initial formation state and has certain development potential. According to the simulation data, the initial formation of these two typhoons will move northwards and gradually approach Japan.
However, due to the complexity of the tropical disturbances in the Pacific Northwest, subsequent rescheduling is likely. According to the EC's simulations, one of the initial typhoons may intensify into a typhoon around September 7, while GFS gives two or even three in a row the embryos that form at the initial stage below 1000hpa, but the continuous strengthening time is shorter.
As a result, these initial typhoons may be unstable, and the Japan Meteorological Agency may even approach Japan around September 3 with an initial typhoon formation with a pressure of less than 1,000 hPa.
This year's Typhoon No. 13 "Mandarin Duck" is likely to form near Japan, and Typhoon No. 14 also needs to be closely watched. This has once again attracted the attention of the twin typhoons, and it is unclear whether they will develop into strong typhoons. China's meteorological department pointed out that a typhoon may form in the next 10 days, indicating a relatively high frequency of typhoon activity.
Although the embryos of Typhoon 95W and 96W are currently considered likely to move towards Japan, the subsequent path is still uncertain. The frequent typhoons this year have attracted the attention of some people, and everyone is observing the future development trend. This also begs the question: why are there so many typhoons this year?
In fact, it is normal for typhoon activity to be more intense in the short term. From the perspective of seasonal changes, it is currently the active period of typhoons, and typhoons are formed at this time of year. In addition, after the beginning of autumn, the subtropical high in the northwest Pacific receded, forming a wide range of low pressure conditions, which, together with the increase in sea temperature, provided favorable conditions for the development of typhoons or typhoon embryos.
However, this year's number of super typhoons is high, which may be an anomaly in climate change. Global warming has led to an abnormal rise in sea surface temperatures, which in turn has contributed to the intense development of tropical storms. This situation indicates that the Earth's climate is changing and should draw our attention to climate change. In the future, as climate change continues, more extreme weather phenomena are likely, including severe storms, high temperatures, droughts and extreme rainfall, which is already imminent.