The Spring Festival has always been a "small peak" of pork consumption, and the situation of pork has also attracted much attention from the market. According to the monitoring data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on February 5, as of 14 o'clock on the 5th, the average pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 2245 yuan kg, up 13%, about 12% compared with the **month-on-month** on January 5, and 22 on the eve of the Spring Festival in 202353 yuan kilogram in the same period of history** compared with the basic flat.
Pig prices have been hovering at a low level for a long time, and it is more difficult for consumers to eat the most affordable pork, but it is more difficult for farmers. At the press conference on the 2023 agricultural and rural economic movement held by the Information Office on January 23, Lei Liugong, director of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said in response to reporters' questions that according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national pork output in 2023 will be 57.94 million tons, an increase of 4 over the previous year6%, the highest level since 2015. "From the perspective of breeding income, the average loss of pig breeding heads throughout the year is 76 yuan, which is also the first year since 2014 to calculate the annual loss of the general ledger. β
Pig prices are sluggish and the industry is relatively overcapacity, and almost all major pig listed companies have handed over their "answer sheets" for losses. Flush data shows that among the 10 companies in the Shenwan pig breeding sector, except for *ST Zhengbang and New Hope are expected to be profitable due to restructuring and equity of ** subsidiaries, the remaining 8 pig companies are all in the red. Even Muyuan shares, which have maintained a profit record since its listing, have also reported a performance loss, and the two pig giants of Muyuan and Wen's shares are expected to lose at least nearly 10 billion yuan. Specifically, Wen's shares have a pre-loss of 6 billion yuan to 6.5 billion yuan; Muyuan shares pre-loss of 3.9 billion yuan to 4.7 billion yuan; Tianbang Food has a pre-loss of 2.6 billion yuan to 2.9 billion yuan. The losses of the remaining companies ranged from 300 million yuan to 1.4 billion yuan.
*Under pressure, many companies have the embarrassing situation of "incremental but not profitable", and "the more you sell, the more you lose" has become a common problem faced by the industry in 2023. Taking Wen's shares, which are among the top in terms of losses, as an example, the company analyzed that in 2023, the company will sell 2,626 pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products).220,000 heads, a year-on-year increase of 4665%, but the average sales price of hairy pigs is 1481 yuan kg, down 2226%γAt the end of 2023, the asset-liability ratio of Wen's shares reached 613%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared with the third quarter of 2023.
Hog production capacity adjustments are underway. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of December 2023, the national breeding sow herd was 41.42 million, a decrease of about 2.5 million from the stage high at the end of December 2022. On this basis, a number of pig companies are also adjusting their business focus. Wen's shares in the institutional investor meeting introduced that taking into account the pig market and the current situation of the industry, the company has adjusted the focus of work from the improvement of the number of breeding pigs to the improvement of the quality of breeding pigs, and through efforts to improve the production indicators of the existing sow group, to achieve an increase in slaughter, and continue to enhance competitiveness.
For the later trend of the market, Lei Liugong said that after organizing special meetings with all parties, it is expected that the pig market will still be relatively loose in the short term, and pig breeding is likely to continue to lose money after the Spring Festival. At the same time, it should also be noted that with the increase in the number of sows that can reproduce, the number of newborn piglets has also decreased accordingly. As the pig production capacity gradually reaches a reasonable level, the pig market situation in the second quarter of 2024 is expected to be better than the same period last year.
Some listed companies are more cautious. For example, Wen's shares believe that the recent pig price has been **, but whether it is sustainable is still uncertain: "The current industry pig inventory is still at a high level, consumption has not seen obvious benefits, and the company generally maintains a cautious and optimistic attitude towards pig prices." β
Muyuan shares expect the overall ** performance in 2024 to be more optimistic than in 2023. "On the supply side, the current breeding sows are still at a high level, but the overall trend is downward, and the number of live pigs in 2024 is expected to be lower than last year; On the demand side, as the economy gradually stabilizes, demand is expected to rise to a certain extent in 2024. Muyuan shares said. (Reporter Pang Xinyi reports from Beijing).
Editor-in-charge: Li Jing.