South Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol visited the frontline units of the South Korean Marine Corps on the first day of the Year of the Dragon, issuing a tough warning to North Korea, saying that if provoked, the South Korean army could "cut first and then play", that is, act first and report later, and crush the enemy's will with a decisive and overwhelming response. This is another military pressure after South Korea's defense minister recently said that if North Korea starts a war, South Korea will end his regime, making the already increasingly tense situation on the peninsula more dangerous.
The background of the ROK's remarks is that two days ago, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter Kim Joo-ae inspected the Ministry of National Defense to celebrate the arrival of the DPRK's Army Day, and delivered a speech at the Ministry of National Defense, reiterating that the ROK is the DPRK's biggest "number one enemy country" and that the DPRK and the ROK are no longer "the same nation."
Kim Jong-un also stressed that the North Korean army must always maintain a posture of readiness for war, and that in the event of an attack on Pyongyang, the North Korean side will make a decision to "change history" and will not hesitate to use all its forces to "finish" South Korea, because peace cannot be obtained through begging and negotiation.
South Korea is clearly reluctant to show weakness in front of the North Korean side, especially before April, when it feared that the North Korean side could launch a military and cyber provocation against Seoul, causing the situation on the inter-Korean border to heat up, and the South Korean side could also be subjected to drone attacks or cyber and disinformation interference. Therefore, the ROK wants to "show strength" to the DPRK in a stronger posture and threaten the latter not to act rashly.
However, military pressure from the ROK will not deter the DPRK and may escalate the situation. Since the beginning of this year, the DPRK has made a series of confrontational moves against the ROK, including designating the ROK as the "first enemy," suspending the DPRK-ROK bilateral communication and consultation mechanism, and issuing a nuclear deterrence warning to the ROK.
All these moves show that the DPRK no longer regards the ROK as a "common nation" but as an enemy that must be eliminated. At the same time, the DPRK is also ready to "go to war" at any time, and as the US-Japan-ROK alliance strengthens its military deployment near the peninsula, the DPRK has strengthened its nuclear program to deal with external pressure and threats.
The reason why the ROK has chosen to continue to exert pressure on the DPRK is likely to be based on the following considerations. First, as the U.S. military strengthens its military deployment in the Indo-Pacific region and the cooperation between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea alliances in the military field continues to heat up, Seoul thinks it has a "backer" and can face North Korea's nuclear deterrence.
Second, the escalating diplomatic exchanges between Russia and North Korea have exacerbated the concerns of the United States and its Asian allies, and Yoon Suk-yeol wants to warn North Korea in a stronger posture, and then warn Russia**Putin, who intends to visit North Korea, not to take any actions that may induce war; Third, Yoon Suk-yeol**'s public approval rating is not optimistic, and being tough on the outside world may become a "label" for his party to win more popular support.
However, military pressure from the ROK will not help, but may lead to the situation on the peninsula getting out of control and triggering war. The DPRK has made clear its position and determination not to easily succumb to external pressure and threats, but will respond with a stronger response. If the ROK continues to exert pressure on the DPRK, it will only aggravate tensions on the peninsula and make the situation spiral out of control, and only by remaining calm and restrained and refraining from taking any actions that may escalate the situation can the Korean Peninsula avoid falling into the quagmire of war.