First, the spot.
The rain and snow cooling weather in the main domestic producing areas and the reluctance of farmers to sell are superimposed, the purchase volume of the first merchant is limited, the feed enterprises mainly adopt a wait-and-see attitude, the recovery of corn market purchase and sales activities is slow, and the overall transaction volume is limited. The cooling weather has reduced the willingness of grassroots growers in the northeast to sell grain, and the morning collection volume of northern ports has remained at a low level, and some port merchants have slightly raised prices to promote income. The inventory of feed enterprises in southern ports has yet to be digested, and the attitude of signing orders is cautious, and the speed of delivery is not fast. The domestic corn spot ** is basically stable, and the local ** is small**. Many places in Northeast China ushered in the weather process of rain and snow cooling, the difficulty of new grain storage was reduced, the pace of grain sales by grassroots growers slowed down, the amount of corn decreased, most of the top merchants still held a wait-and-see attitude, and the arrival of deep processing enterprises was at a low level as a whole, and the inventory of most enterprises was relatively sufficient, and the fluctuations were limited. Affected by the weather and the strong festive atmosphere in the Huanghuai producing area in North China, the grassroots growers' intention to sell grain is not strong, the grassroots corn is less on the market, the first business festival is limited in stockpiling, the overall willingness to ship the grain is not strong, and the arrival of some processing enterprises continues to decline, and many enterprises tentatively raise the purchase price.
Second, the first aspect.
On February 19, 2024, the CBOT is closed for public holidays.
On February 20, 2024, the opening price of the main corn ** contract C2405 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) was 2,388 yuan, the ** price was 2,404 yuan, up 15 yuan, the highest price was 2,412 yuan, the lowest price was 2,388 yuan, and the settlement price was 2,401 yuan, with a total trading volume of 494195 lots and a position of 916,450 lots.
Third, focus on hot spots in the later stage.
Weather changes, procurement mentality, feed mill strategy, domestic policy, international and domestic corn market, purchase of production areas, imported corn to Hong Kong, disease flow, livestock and poultry products, changes in international freight, international economic situation, wheat changes, feed demand, weather impact on corn, etc.
Fourth, related news.
1. As of the 15th, the average corn distiller's grains (DDGS)** in 34 regions of the United States was $192 per ton, $2 from a week ago.
2. India's Minister Piyushi Goyal said on Sunday that India has provided support for beans, corn and cotton crops to break the impasse with farmers.
3. Indonesian buyers are increasing their feed wheat imports, as severe El Niño-related drought has led to a decline in corn production, leading to a tightening of feed.
4. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan, the total area sown with cereals in 2024 will be 23.9 million hectares, 115 fewer than last year6 hectares. Among them, the wheat planting area will decrease by 43 percent year-on-year920,000 hectares, barley planting area will decrease by 12 percent year-on-year950,000 hectares. In addition, the area under cotton acreage will be reduced by 160,000 hectares, the area of rice will be reduced by 640,000 hectares. The planting area of oilseeds will increase by 41 year-on-year470,000 hectares, the area of forage crops will increase by 9640,000 hectares.
5. The Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine said that as of February 15, the corn harvested area in Ukraine in 2023 was 36890,000 hectares, equivalent to 91% of the planned harvested area.
6. The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia issued a notice to reduce the export tariff on wheat (denominated in rubles) by 3%, corn by 52%, and barley by 13% for the period from February 21 to February 27, 2024.
7. According to a survey by the consulting agency Safras & Mercado, as of the 16th, Brazil's 2023 24 first season corn harvest area has reached the expected area of 39729% of 20,000 hectares.
8. Iran's state-owned feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soybean meal.
Fifth, the market outlook analysis.
In February, China's corn was still sufficient, and the enthusiasm of growers and merchants in the producing areas was still high, which was still negative for the overall situation. Stocking before the Spring Festival has ended, the actual impact on corn ** is obviously limited, predicting that most of the time in February, the production area of corn ** overall is still weak trend is more likely, after late February, there is a short-term ** tendency to exist because of the demand side before the Spring Festival stocking is limited, there is a relatively concentrated replenishment of the impact after the holiday. Due to the large increase in the import of substitute raw materials, the pressure on corn in 2024 is huge, and it is difficult to predict that the year will improve significantly.
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