High-quality author list On Friday, A-shares unilaterally **, the market was obviously panicked after breaking through 2700 points. Fortunately, in the afternoon, GJD's strong attack, the deep "V" reversal of the time-sharing chart, and the day** recorded the bardo "hammerhead", and there were signs of stabilization.
The main contradiction in the current market is obviously the problem of local liquidity. The traditional cyclical large blue chips favored by GJD and in the direction of non-public and private equity heavy positions have risen steadily, while the small and medium-sized market capitalization with better elasticity has no bottom line.
To solve the local liquidity problem, either GJD "grasps both the big and the small, and grasps it at the same time", and changes market expectations with unreasonable strong and continuous pulling, after all, the three yang lines change beliefs. On Friday, it already has a little meaning.
Because, the CSI 300 ETF moved significantly on Friday, and the northbound funds were net for a week (rumored to be GJD), and some industry leaders were obviously designated by funds.
Either simply let the market fall into free fall, fall through the natural **, and then evolve from ** to a trend reversal with the blessing of the fundamental recovery logic confirmed over time.
Standing at the current point in time, the market has indeed overfallen, and it has indeed fallen through.
After all, year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has accumulated **823%, the Shenzhen Component Index has accumulated **1542%, GEM cumulative **1803%, comparable to "stock zai".
On the other hand, the trading volume on Friday was 805.7 billion, and the average daily turnover of the week was about 750 billion, and the liquidity center moved up significantly. As long as the market is still willing to trade, then there is a possibility of violence at any time.
In other words, for nowa**The liquidity of the total amount of the field is not bad, the phased decline is large enough, GJD spares no effort and continues to protect the disk, the market has the necessary conditions for the first time, and there is only one opportunity left to detonate.
There are only 4 trading days next week to usher in the Lunar New Year, and according to past experience, the long and short will converge at this point in time; And after the Spring Festival, there will be two important meetings on the news side (two important meetings in March every year).
That is, in terms of the general direction of judgment, the traceability subjectively believes that the probability of A-shares next week is to stabilize and weaken, strengthen after the holiday, and reach a climax before and after the meeting.
From a short-term technical point of view, the Shanghai Composite Index is a hammer on a daily basis, but the length of the lower shadow is not enough, and the bears are diverging downward in the background, and there is inertia to confirm the support appeal of the lower shadow. But personally, I don't think it will completely step back on the lower shadow.
120 minutes** on the standard hammer, the lower shadow line three times as the **entity, stabilize ** meaning; 60 minutes** will be broken and wait for the direction to be decided; 30 minutes** Upper and lower shadow rubbing, which also hints at direction selection; 5 minutes and 15 minutes are the retracements against the background of the uptrend, and the retracement is likely to be the end.
In terms of comprehensive technical characteristics, the traceability subjectively believes that the probability of continuing to ** next Monday is greater。In addition, the technical characteristics of the ChiNext and the Shanghai Stock Exchange converge and are expected to resonate.
1. Document No. 1 was officially released, focusing on food security and improving yields. The increase in yield is inseparable from biological breeding and agricultural science and technology support, which echoes the revitalization of the seed industry previously proposed, in other words, the modernization and intelligent direction of agricultural machinery in the seed industry sub-industry or usher in short-term trading opportunities.
2. On Monday, the previous central bank had pre-announced 0The 5-point RRR cut was officially implemented, which will provide long-term liquidity to the market by about 1 trillion yuan.
At the same time, today's YH open market net launch. According to the announcement, YH carried out a 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 43 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 195%, the same as before. That is, the market liquidity is worry-free.
3. Wind data statistics show that as of 2On the 2nd, the net inflow of all A** ETFs has exceeded 180 billion since the beginning of this year, and the valuation of A-shares is at the bottom of history, and the signal that the medium-term allocation value is quite obvious is stronger.
4. 4 trading days next week, only 2On the 8th, there was a new share subscription. The value of the restriction is 4369.7 billion, down 1504%, not much pressure.
Comprehensive analysis: Continuous**, the necessary conditions are met, considering the special time point, I personally think that the probability of A shares has come to the ** time cycle. As for Monday, the traceability guess continues to be weak**.
The article is a collation and reflection of traceable investment ideas, and does not constitute investment advice, for reference only).