The following is part of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' February 14, 2024 research report, "Optimizing U.S. Export Controls on Critical and Emerging Technologies – Working with Partners."
At its most basic, quantum technology is designed to take advantage of the natural properties of matter and energy discovered by quantum physics researchers. The origins of quantum theory can be traced back to 1900, however, its application has been difficult to achieve. However, recent attention has pushed quantum to the forefront, and U.S. policymakers are looking for strategies to address risks and gain advantages associated with new potential capabilities. Traditional information science deals with:"bits", which can be a binary value of 0 or 1.
Traditional computers have become extremely complex, but their basic information carriers are still bits. In quantum information science, the basic carrier of information is the qubit. Qubits are"Probabilistic, it can exist in a superposition state, in which the qubits are in both 0 and 1 states"。Another important property of qubits is:"Entanglement", ie"The state of one qubit depends on the state of the other"interrelated capabilities.
Quantum technology includes three areas that have an impact on the world: quantum computing, quantum communication and cryptography, and quantum sensing. Opinions differ on the potential of quantum technology; Some say that quantum technology provides an opportunity to enhance current military capabilities, while others argue that quantum technology fully represents"A new dimension of warfare"。However, they have the potential to enhance military systems and pose a direct threat to digital security architectures such as public-key cryptography. Many security experts see AI as a threat to *** because of its great usefulness in military applications; Quantum computers have more computing power and can be applied to artificial intelligence algorithms to more efficiently analyze the huge data sets required for machine learning.
First, quantum key distribution has been introduced, which relies on quantum properties to encrypt data as it travels. This encryption method is achieved during transmission by utilizing quantum entanglement"Theoretical impenetrability"。However, this is still the case"A very active area of research", vulnerabilities have been found in the nascent system. According to the Congressional Research Service, quantum sensing can"Alternative positioning, navigation, and timing options are available to theoretically allow militaries to continue to operate at full capacity in an environment where GPS is degraded or denied by GPS"。It also has very useful applications in the field of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. The same report also states that quantum sensors can help military detection"Underground structures or nuclear materials"and electromagnetic radiation, thus greatly enhancing information-gathering operations. In addition, through advanced underwater detection and tracking capabilities, quantum sensing has the potential to disrupt nuclear-capable submarines"Barely visible"status.
The quantum computing chain is global; Companies that produce prototypes and products have several dependencies with foreign countries. First of all, because quantum technology is just getting started, the demand for its input is very low, resulting in a small number of quotients. Because quantum information is fundamentally different from traditional information, new software is needed to connect consumers and quantum technology applications. So far, this work has focused on quantum computing. Several companies offer cloud-based quantum computer access services and have developed software that converts classical computing inputs into quantum computer-interpretable inputs.
Firmware
The best description is the basic programming that writes a hardware device to control its basic functions. This is another challenge for quantum computing, where traditional firmware is not suitable. Firmware is essential for any computer, but it has a higher use in quantum computing: error correction. Qubits are prone to errors, an estimate from the American Physical Society"The qubit error rate in superconducting systems is currently around 05%"。You know, the error rate is more than 01%, and the quantum computer fails. Error correction is one of the great hurdles to quantum computing, and research work is mainly carried out in an academic setting. In 2021, U.S.-based Honeywell announced that it could"Real-time"Perform quantum error correction.
According to a report by the RAND Corporation, the ** chain of quantum error correction input mainly flows through Europe, with other components coming from Canada, Russia, Australia, Northeast Asia, and Southeast Asia. **Key nodes of the chain include: Toptica Photonics in Germany and Moglabs in Australia (which produces laser diodes); Low Noise Factory in Sweden (production of high electron mobility transistor amplifiers); and several companies in Finland, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands (producing powerful dilution chillers needed to run quantum computers).
The Dutch company ASML is also part of the quantum chain, and its advanced lithography system is essential for quantum inputs. China's participation in the quantum chain is high, however, mainly through off-the-shelf commercial components (COTS) such as electronics, optics, raw materials, and converters. A report by the U.S. Accountability Office on quantum computing states that China dominates rare earth components in quantum computing and communications technology, China"It accounted for 80% of U.S. rare earth element imports between 2016 and 2019. "The RAND report analyzes evidence from patent applications, venture capital funding, and demonstrated capabilities, and finds that the U.S. and China are global leaders in quantum communications research in all three areas. These differences are related to R&D funding.
Research in the United States is driven by private companies, the vast majority of which are focused on computing. R&D in China is carried out almost entirely by **-funded laboratories that have made rapid progress with unmatched investment in quantum communication technology. When it comes to academic collaborative research in all three quantum fields, universities in the United States and Europe tend to dominate highly cited research publications. However, there are also a handful of Chinese institutions, most prominently scientists from Tsinghua University, who collaborated with teams from the United States and Europe to publish the papers**.
In general, the current field of quality technology is characterized by the leading positions of the United States and China, and the ** chain depends on enterprises within the European Union.
Countries are beginning to incorporate significant investment and economic protection measures into their quality and technical capacity development strategies. On May 4, 2022, Biden released the landmark Memorandum on Promoting U.S. Leadership in Quantum Computing While Deleveraging the Risk of Vulnerable Cryptosystems. The memorandum specifically calls for the United States to be active in quantum computing and quantum information science"Stay ahead of the competition"。A few months later, the CHIPS and Science Act was signed into law, containing several tools that would help make the vision a reality. These include a significant increase in the DOE's funding for new initiatives: the Quantum Network Infrastructure R&D Program, the Quantum Technology User Expansion Program, and the Computing Science Graduate Fellowship Program. The U.S. grant also aims to expand the scope of quantum research at the National Institute of Standards and Technology and reform the National Academy of Science's quantum activities to enhance its ability to train future quantum leaders. In addition to investment, the United States** is institutionalizing barriers against the countries involved.
In September 2023, the U.S. Department of Commerce published the final regulatory framework for the CHIPS Act, which clearly states that funds may not be used"Worrying countries"。Designed for quantum information systems"of semiconductors are also among the restricted technologies. The policy, while trivial, demonstrates the Commerce Department's desire to prevent quantum technology from entering China in the same way as semiconductor export controls.
China has implemented policies that make it clear that the development of quantum technology is also a top priority. ** Quantum technology has been integrated with space capabilities and capabilities"Al"Together, the technologies are listed as key strategic technologies. As mentioned above, China has invested the most money in the field of quantum technology. McKinsey points out that this investment"It has stimulated the development of more than a dozen Chinese quantum technology research institutions"。Aiden** proposed targeted foreign investment restrictions in the Executive Order on U.S. Investment in Certain Technologies and Products in Relevant Countries, but they should be used with caution so as not to stifle the quantum industry of the United States and its allies, because at least in some areas, the quantum industry of the United States and its allies may have lagged behind China.
Paradoxically, quantum technology is still in its infancy, and the choke points in this emerging field are easier to identify than in some other areas with more mature value chains and more geographically diverse locations. Projects such as laser diodes, dilution coolers, and optical lithography tools remain in the hands of a handful of companies located in countries with close ties to the United States. Therefore, the United States should maintain a regular dialogue with these countries and companies to build capacity and coordinate possible future export restrictions as the technology becomes more mature.
Given that the industry is just getting started, the U.S. should focus on improving quantum technology at home.
Ability. A key aspect of these efforts is to train and attract skilled workers in the industry.
*: "Optimizing U.S. Export Controls on Critical and Emerging Technologies – Working with Partners" February 14, 2024 Center for Strategic and International Studies by William Alan Reinsch, Thibault Denamiel, and Matthew Schleich