Before the U.S. stock market on February 7, Uber, the "international version of Didi", announced its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2023, which is summarized: The growth of core indicators in this quarter is still strong, but under the full expectations and valuations, there is a lack of surprises to impress investors and the marketThe detailed points are as follows:
1.Demand remains solid, at least for nowThe core order volume performance is fundamentalThe amount of orders in the Mobility sectorNearly $19.3 billionThe year-on-year growth rate was 295%, which was largely unchanged from the previous quarter, validates that commuting demand remains strong (for now), but in line with full expectations. In the post-epidemic era, it is relatively headwindUber Eats delivery businessThe order value achieved in the quarter was 17 billion yuanThe growth rate increased by more than 1pct to 188%。Although there is the impact of last year's low base, it is also reflectedThe takeaway business has come out of the trough, and the growth trend is gradually rising, but it is also basically within expectations. In other words,The growth of orders in the two core segments was quite good this quarter, but there were no special surprises compared to the already full expectations.
2.The increase in order frequency has slowed down, dragging down the growth rate of order volumeFrom the point of view of price and volume driversThe growth rate of core orders (ride-hailing and takeaway) in the quarter fell from 25% to 24%, showing slight signs of decline, but the average average order value fell from 27% narrowed to 19%, compensating for a slight slowdown in volume growth.
Order growth was slightly lower, mainly due to a slowdown in the growth momentum of the average number of orders placed per user during the quarter. (Month-on-month only from 17.)2 times to 173 times). StillCorresponding to the still good user growth (145% yoy), it can be speculated that more new users have diluted the average number of times. Not a big deal.
3.The decline in the monetization rate of takeaway has dragged down revenue:At the revenue level,The revenue of the taxi business in the quarter was 55$400 million, slightly higher than the consensus of 53900 millionThe year-on-year growth rate was 39%, which was still higher than the growth rate of 29% of the order value. However, (after the pattern change).After the monetization rate suddenly jumped from 20% to over 21% in 1Q23, it has been flat for the next four quarters with no signs of further improvement. In other words,With the end of the base period of this quarter, the revenue growth rate will decline and converge significantly to the growth rate of order value.
The realized revenue of the food delivery business for the quarter was 31200 million, an increase of about 18% after excluding the impact of business model changes, in line with the growth rate of order value. Actually,The realisation rate of the takeaway business did not increase year-on-year, and it was even more significant month-on-month. Dolphin projection guesses from the point of view of business practiceThis is the choice for the company to take the initiative to reduce the realization rate and promote scale growth under the headwinds of industry demand.
4.Takeaway dragged down the gross profit slightly, but the control fee was larger:Probably due toThe quarter-on-quarter decline in the realisation rate of the food delivery business dragged down the gross profit margin slightly, and the proportion of gross profit in the order value increased from 104% dropped slightly to 103%。
StillTotal expenditure at the expense level 32300 million, while the order value continues to grow at a rate of 20%+, the absolute value of expenses continues to decrease sequentially, visibleThe company's efforts to control fees are still very strong. Only operating support expenses maintained double-digit growth in line with business growth, while all other expenses decreased sequentially or increased by a low single digit.
5.Profit margins continue to improve, with takeaways taking the most :Although the gross profit margin decreased slightly, due to the reduction of the expense level, the company mainly focused on the profit indicator -The adjusted EBITDA indicator as a whole was not 12800 million, slightly higher than the market expectation of 12300 million,However, the extent of exceeding expectations is also relatively limited.
In terms of sub-sectors, the profit margins of the three major sectors continued to improve steadily. Among them, the takeaway business realizes ADJebitda 4.800 million, up from 4 percent in the previous quarter100 million and the market expected 4300 million, which is the most significant increase in profits among the three major sectors. Considering that the monetization rate of the food delivery business has decreased slightly, but the profitability is improving, it also verifies that the company has significantly reduced its investment and expenses in the food delivery sector.
6.There were no big surprises in the first quarter guidance revenue and profitFor the next quarter's performance, the company guides the total order amount to be between 37 billion and 38.5 billion, the lower limit is close to the market expectation of 37.3 billion, and the implied growth rate of the guidance will be slightly reduced by about 1-2pct. At the profit level, the adjusted EBITDA guidance is 12Between 6-1.3 billion, the lower bound is also close to the expected 125 on. In other words,Guidance for the next quarter is also good, but it also lacks enough surprises.
Dolphin Investment Research Viewpoint:Judging from the results of this quarter, Uber, whose business volume and revenue growth are still solid, and the profit margins of major sectors have continued to improve, are still in line with our previous bullish logic, and both growth and profit indicators continue to be on an upward track. Guidance for the next quarter also shows that the upward trend has not been broken until at least the first quarter.
However, the fly in the ointment is that the company's current trading price of nearly $70** reflects a relatively full valuation, and the good results of the quarter are generally only in line with expectations, but lack of surprises. And because the current third-party data has shown that the demand for offline wine tourism and catering in the United States seems to be weakening. As a result, the market has been cautious about Uber's general acceptance, and in the absence of a clear surprise that exceeds expectations, the incentive to push valuations further is somewhat insufficient.
Since the company's long-term steady-state earnings are not yet clear, Uber is more of a trend investment, and as long as the company's performance remains on an upward trend, holding is still a good choice. However, it is also necessary to pay close attention to whether there is a significant inflection point in demand, so as to prevent the risk of relatively full valuation** and choose to settle down.
The following is a detailed interpretation of this quarter's financial report:
First, growth remains worry-free, at least temporarily
Uber basic diskTaxi (mobility) section, this seasonThe amount of the orderNearly $19.3 billionThe year-on-year growth rate reached 295%, which is almost no slowdown from the previous quarter, validates the still strong commuting demand. However, it is basically in line with the full expectations.
Dolphin Investment Research believes that the continued recovery of the back-to-office trend in large cities in the United States, as well as the real increase in South America and Asia-Pacific internationally, are the main reasons for driving the resilience of demand.
And in the post-epidemic era, it is relatively headwindUber Eats delivery businessThe order value achieved in the quarter was 17 billion yuanThe growth rate increased by more than 1pct to 188%。Although there is the impact of last year's low base, it is still reflectedThe food delivery business has come out of the trough, and the growth trend is gradually rising. But it has also been expected by the market.
Totaling the food delivery and ride-hailing business, the core order value in the quarter was nearly US$36.3 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24%, althoughThird-party survey data shows that the U.S. offline wine tourism has a marginal weakening trend in the fourth quarter, and the performance of Uber's actual delivery is still quite strong.
From the perspective of price and volume driversThere were slight signs of a decline in the growth rate of core orders (including ride-hailing and takeaways) from 25% to 24%, but the average average order value fell from 27% narrowed to 19%, compensating for a slight slowdown in volume growth.
The slight decline in order volume growth was mainly due to the slowdown in the growth momentum of the average number of orders placed by a single user in the quarter. (from 9% to 8%), quarter-on-quarter growth momentum has also stalled (from 172 times to 173 times).
Corresponding to the still good user growth (145% yoy), it can be speculated that more new users have diluted the average number of times. In other words, Uber's user stickiness is still good.
Second, the realization rate is flat or decreased, and the revenue growth is expected
Since some of Uber's businesses in the United Kingdom and Canada have changed from a platform model to a self-operated model due to legal reasons, and the company's recognized revenue has also changed from a net commission to a total payment amount, resulting in an increase in revenue.
Specifically,The revenue of the taxi business in the quarter was 55$400 million, slightly higher than the consensus of 53900 millionThe year-on-year growth rate was 39%, which was still higher than the growth rate of 29% of the order value.
However, it can be seen that (After the sudden jump from 20% to over 21% in 1Q23, the monetization rate has remained slightly fluctuating at 21% for the next four quarters, with no further improvement. In other words,After this quarter, with the base period in the past, the revenue growth rate will decline significantly to the growth rate of orders, and converge.
The realized revenue of the food delivery business for the quarter was 31200 million, an increase of about 18% after excluding the impact of business model changes, in line with the growth rate of order value. In other words, the food delivery businessThe realisation rate did not increase year-on-year, and it was even more significant month-on-month. Dolphin projection guesses from the point of view of business practiceThis is the choice for the company to take the initiative to reduce the realization rate and promote scale growth under the headwinds of industry demand.
As for Uber's trucking business, it posted revenue of 12800 million yuan, basically stable at 1.2+ billion for three consecutive quarters, due to the weakening of import and export demand, the freight forwarding business has no highlights in the short term, and there is no need to pay attention to it.
Added up to all businesses, Uber's total revenue for the quarter was 99US$400 million, due to solid revenue growth in the core food delivery + ride-hailing business, while the freight forwarding business decreased due to a lower baseTotal revenue growth increased by 4pct to 15% quarter-on-quarter, which is impressive. But compared to the expected 97800 million, the difference is very small.
3. Gross profit decreased slightly, but expenses continued to shrink and profit margins continued to increase
Probably mainly due to:The quarter-on-quarter decline in the realisation rate of the food delivery business dragged down the gross profit margin, and the proportion of gross profit in the order value increased from 104% dropped slightly to 103%。The absolute value of gross profit is also 38800 million and expected 38700 million consistent.
StillTotal expenditure at the expense level 32300 million, while the order value continues to grow at a rate of more than 20%, the absolute value of expenses continues to decrease sequentially, visibleThe company's efforts to control fees are still very strong.
Specifically,In addition to the operating support expenses, which are highly related to business growth, R&D expenses continued to increase sequentially, while marketing and administrative expenses continued to decline sequentially.
Overall, although the gross margin decreased slightly, it was adjusted due to the reduction in expensesOperating profit is still from 8900 million to 10800 million, a new high, and profits continue to improve.
Fourth, in terms of segments, the profit of the takeaway business improved the most
The company's main focus is on profit indicatorsThe adjusted EBITDA indicator as a whole was not 12800 million, slightly higher than the market expectation of 12300 million,However, the extent of exceeding expectations is also relatively limited. Look at it in parts.
1) Adj. of the taxi businessEBITDA is 14$500 million, margin continued to improve steadily sequentially, slightly exceeding expectations of 4%;
2) The takeaway business realizes ADJebitda 4.800 million, up from 4 percent in the previous quarter100 million and the market expected 4300 million, is the most significant profit increase among the three major sectors, and it also exceeds expectations. Considering that the monetization rate of the food delivery business has decreased slightly, but the profitability is improving, it indicates that the company has significantly reduced its investment and expenses in the food delivery segment.
3) As for the freight business, the loss for the quarter was 01.4 billion, compared with the previous quarter and market expectations, there is no significant difference;
4) In addition, the loss at the level of the group headquarters increased by 5900 million expanded to 6300 million, it may be an increase in headquarters expenses, or some new business attempts.
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