Many economists and real estate practitioners believe that the property market will pick up this year, including my previous article is the same view, but according to the January data released a few days ago, the difficulty of the property market to stabilize and recover as soon as possible is still beyond many people's imagination.
According to the data of the China Index Research Institute, in January 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies will be 2815300 million, a year-on-year increase of **33%.
At the same time, the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 real estate companies has changed greatly, with a year-on-year increase of 444%, but it should be noted that the phenomenon of land auction differentiation is still intensifying, among which the core area is very popular, and the non-core area and suburbs are still "cool".
*According to the "100 Cities ** Index Report", new residential buildings were **015%, 043%；Second-hand houses were **056% and 396%。
From the above data, it can be seen that in the first month of the new year, the property market is still continuing the trend of 2023, and the wish of "good start" is in vain.
So, will this year's property market continue like this? Or will there be stronger policies to turn things around? Judging from the current actual situation, the answer is actually obvious, it is the latter, and then, let's talk about policy.
1.At the developer level
Since January, the project white list has been accelerated, the main purpose is to solve the financial problem of real estate enterprises, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has even used the word "due diligence and exemption", which is enough to see that the "help" is quite large.
According to the report, some cities have applied for the first batch of project white lists, and some projects have also received loans, such as Qingdao has 84 projects with a financing demand of 250200 million; There are 19 projects in Harbin, involving financing needs of more than 2.7 billion yuan and so on.
In addition, in the transformation of urban villages in megacities, the two forms of compensation will also reduce the pressure on real estate enterprises to a certain extent, not to mention the operating property loan and rental housing loan support scheme.
With the support of many policies, although the financial problem of real estate enterprises cannot be completely solved, it will improve, and there will be more room for operation to acquire land or do something else.
2.Homebuyer level
From the perspective of home buyers, it mainly revolves around two points, one is to reduce the pressure of buying a house, and the other is to enhance the expectations of the property market for home buyers.
In terms of pressure reduction, there are interest rate cuts, mortgage loans, down payment ratios, housing subsidies, etc., and it is expected that this year, relevant policies will be further adjusted, such as mortgage interest rates may also be lowered.
In addition, *** said at the meeting on January 18 that it will make great efforts to raise residents' income expectations this year, and at the same time improve consumption power. Expectations are higher, the pressure to buy a house is still decreasing, and of course it is easier to make up your mind to buy a house.
As for the property market expectations, it is a rather fantasy thing, when the situation of developers improves, the unfinished and thunderstorms decrease, and the popularity of local auctions increases, the people's confidence in the property market will rebound, and many people who were still waiting and watching will follow the trend and enter the market, and the transaction volume will also increase.
3.Local policy perspective
In January this year, the biggest local policy movement was Guangzhou, the first room ticket in the first-tier city, and then the first to adjust the purchase restriction policy, followed by Shanghai and Suzhou also adjusted the purchase restriction policy, if nothing else, several other first-tier cities are estimated to be unable to sit still, but the adjustment is a matter of sooner or later.
In addition, at the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's meeting on the deployment of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, the person in charge of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said: fully give the autonomy of urban real estate regulation and control, and cities can adjust real estate policies according to local conditions.
That is to say, this time it is really open, all the power that should be released is released, and the cities can make policies to let go, so the future policy may be looser, more conducive to the stabilization of the property market, and even we think that the new housing ** that can not be lowered may have a relatively large fluctuation.
On the one hand, the current situation of the property market is indeed anxious, and everyone is a little unable to sit still, on the other hand, our attitude to rescue the market is very resolute, as long as it does not pick up and stabilize, the policy will continue to increase.
To sum up, in order to stabilize the property market and pick up, no effort has been spared in the policy, in this context, the central media China Economic Weekly, hosted by the people's first director, based on the premise of the accumulation of the current policy effect, with an article on the 2024 real estate trend, which mainly includes the following two points:
1.In 2024, with the improvement of the macro economy and the adjustment of the real estate market, it is expected that the market will continue to recover, and market confidence will generally be in a state of recovery.2.There is still a lot of room for improvement in the quantity and quality of urbanization in China, and a new model of real estate development is being actively built and has great potential, so the long-term healthy development of the real estate market has a good foundation.
These two points can be summed up in one sentence: in the short term, the confidence of home buyers, real estate companies and banks in the market will gradually recover, and the market will pick up; In the long run, I am very optimistic about the future development of real estate.