According to wind data, as of the end of January, there were 5 new shares that had completed the online issuance and were waiting for the official listing, of which Nova Nebula, Shanghai Hejing and Chengdu Huawei were all computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing enterprises, while Huayang Intelligent was an electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing enterprise, and Haisheng Pharmaceutical was a pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprise.
From the point of view of issuance, the issuance of Nova Nebula, which plans to land on the GEM, is as high as 12689 yuan, although far more than the other 4 new shares to be listed, but if you refer to the issuance of new shares since 2023, it is normal, after all, there have been 7 new shares for the first time** more than 100 yuan issuance precedent, such as the initial offering price of Suochen Technology listed in March 2023.
The grid is as high as 24556 yuan, the first launch of UFJ Technology is 15238 yuan, the first launch of Xishan Technology ** is 13580 yuan.
It is worth mentioning that the average valuation level of the industry where the new stock is located has a certain impact on the stock price trend after the listing of the new stock, if the valuation level at the time of listing is lower than the industry average, the stock price will likely rise in the future, and if it is significantly higher than the industry average valuation, the possibility of going lower will also be greatly increased. Therefore, for some investors who like to play new stocks, the prosperity of the industry where the new stock is located and the current average valuation of the industry have important reference significance.
Table 1: New Shares Pending Online Offering Completed
*：wind
There is a high probability of new shares being issued at a low price**
IPO financial news found that since 2023, among the 57 newly listed companies in the "computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing" companies, 28 companies' stock prices (as of January 30, 2024) have achieved **, and 29 companies' stock prices have "broken". Through observation, it can be found that the probability of stock price occurrence of new stocks with too high initial offering is obviously high, while new stocks with low initial offering usually have better returns in subsequent market performance.
Taking the 29 "computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing" new shares whose stock prices "broke" as an example, the average issuance at the time of listing was 40$15. From the point of view of decline, most of the companies with the highest decline are some of the general high issuances, such as Yutai Micro-U, which has an initial offering of 92 yuan, which has been close to 30% since its listing, and the latest stock price has been less than 65 yuan; The initial offering of 75 yuan of the United States, since the listing of the stock price has also been adjusted, as of the end of January this year, the stock price has also ** 3720%。In terms of the top 5 new stocks with the largest declines listed in Table 2, only the issuance of Huizhi Micro-U** is less than 40$15 average issue price.
Table 2: 29 new listings in the manufacture of computer, communications and other electronic equipment**
Data**: Wind, as of January 30
Further observation of the performance of the stock price on the first day of listing, it can be found that among the top 5 companies listed in Table 2, except for Huasu Technology's stock price on the first day**5004%, the first day of Zhishang Technology**9In addition to 61%, the remaining 3 new stocks "broke" on the first day of listing.
In the same way, if you look at the 28** new stocks in the "computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry", you can see that their average issuance** is 2621 yuan, which is much lower than the average issue price of the aforementioned 29 ** new shares. Among the top 5 companies with the highest gains, COSCO's issuance** is only 687 yuan, an increase of 232 since its listing31%；The issue prices of Dali Cap and Huafeng Technology are also less than 10 yuan, and they have more than doubled since they were listed.
It should be pointed out that among the above 28 new stocks that have achieved the best since their listing, only one company, Gaohua Technology, has "broken" on the first day of listing, and among the 29 new stocks with the highest stock price since listing, there are as many as 5 companies that have "broken" on the first day of listing.
Obviously, from a longer cycle, the probability of new shares with low initial issuance is relatively greater after listing, while those with high initial issuance are prone to "breakage" after listing.
Table 3: 28 new listings in the manufacture of computer, communications and other electronic equipment**
Data**: Wind, as of January 30
Nova Nebula issued the most in the industry
IPO financial news noted that among the 57 companies in the "computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry" that have been issued and listed since 2023, Yutai Micro-U, which was listed in February 2023 and was at the top of the list, has an initial offering of 92 yuan, and now its top position will be won by Nova Nebula.
The Nova Nebula's start** is 12689 yuan, which focuses on the research and application of core algorithms of display control, the main products include LED display control system, processing system and cloud-based information release and management system.
For the issuance of not low**, Nova Nebula explained from multiple angles in the issuance announcement, such as in terms of profitability, the company said that from 2020 to 2022, the issuer's operating income increased from 98501580,000 yuan increased to 217398940,000 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 4856%；Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company increased from 11074720,000 yuan increased to 30,824670,000 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 6683%；Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses increased from 10,522380,000 yuan increased to 29,721910,000 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 6807%, with rapid growth in performance and significant growth. The gross profit margin in the reporting period was as follows. 59% and 4940%, the average gross profit margin of comparable listed companies in the same industry, Colorlight, Tricolor Technology, Guangfeng Technology and CVTE are respectively. 61%, the comprehensive gross profit margin level is significantly better than that of comparable listed companies in the same industry.
In terms of technology, the company has 983 domestic patents (including 519 invention patents), 17 overseas patents (including 16 invention patents), 200 software copyrights, and 9 integrated circuit layout designs. With the continuous development of technology and the continuous decline of costs, LEDs will continue to upgrade to Mini and Micro, and the application scenarios will continue to expand.
In terms of customers, it serves more than 4,000 customers around the world, including Leyard, Unilumin Technology, Absen, Qiangqiang Jucai, Lianjian Optoelectronics and other LED industry leaders and Hikvision, Dahua Co., Ltd. and other security industry leaders, the company's industry position is prominent, customer resources are abundant.
Obviously, Nova Nebula has an industry-leading advantage in many aspects, but if you look at the performance after the issuance of new shares in previous years, the probability of the stock price of the initial company appearing is usually larger, and it remains to be seen whether Nova Nebula has the ability to get rid of this "curse".
For this 126The issuance of 89 yuan shares**, Nova Nebula said in the listing announcement that the corresponding issuer's diluted price-to-earnings ratio attributable to the parent company before and after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in 2022 is 2193 times, which is lower than the average static P/E ratio of 30 in the latest month of "C39 Computer, Communication and Other Electronic Equipment Manufacturing" released by CSI *** on January 25, 2024 (T-3).02 times; This is lower than the average static price-to-earnings ratio of comparable companies' net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2022 after deducting non-recurring gains and losses3780 times.
Shanghai Hejing and Chengdu Huawei were issued at a low price
Looking at the three new stocks of "computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing" to be listed, except for the issuance of Nova Nebula**, which far exceeds the industry average, the initial offerings** of Shanghai Hejing and Chengdu Huawei are lower than the 28 new shares of the aforementioned 28 new shares$21 average starter**.
In the same industry, there is a clear difference between the issuance of Nova Nebula and the issuance of Shanghai Hejing, with the former's initial offering as high as 12689 yuan, the latter's starting ** is 2266 yuan. For its own ** issuance, Nova Nebula gave support reasons from many aspects such as market, customers, technical capabilities, profitability, and growth, while in contrast, Shanghai Hejing's statement was somewhat lacking.
Shanghai Hejing is a manufacturer of semiconductor silicon epitaxial wafers and semiconductor silicon materials, and is one of the few manufacturers in China with the whole process production capacity of epitaxial wafers, which can give full play to the advantages of integration, and has achieved key technological breakthroughs such as high flatness, high uniformity and low defectivity of epitaxial wafer products.
In the prospectus, Shanghai Hejing admitted that some of the equipment and some raw materials required for the issuer's production need to be imported from abroad, and the lack of supporting facilities in the domestic semiconductor industry chain also restricts the issuer's capacity expansion to a certain extent. The supporting industrial chain is relatively weak.
In addition, as advanced manufacturers at home and abroad have gradually begun to use 12-inch epitaxial wafers in the manufacture of power devices and other chip products, some domestic and foreign silicon wafer manufacturers have 12-inch epitaxial wafer production capacity, while Shanghai Synthetic Wafer products are mainly concentrated in 8-inch wafers, and the revenue related to 12-inch epitaxial wafer products still accounts for less than 2%.
In terms of performance, although the performance of Shanghai Hejing in 2021 and 2022 is good, its revenue increased by 41% year-on-year respectively12% and 1715%, net profit margin increased by 273 year-on-year17% and 7224%, but judging from the growth trend, there are signs of declining growth. After the release of the data for the third quarter of 2023, the downward trend in performance was further confirmed: in January and September 2023, revenue fell by 844%, net profit fell 20% year-on-year87%。
Regarding the reasons for the decline in revenue in the first half of 2023, Shanghai Hejing said: "The company's operating income decreased by 5 percent year-on-year78%, on the one hand, mainly due to the weak demand in the downstream market in the communication and office fields, resulting in a decline in the company's epitaxial wafer business revenue, and on the other hand, mainly due to the impact of market demand, the company's silicon material business revenue declined. ”
Compared with the first launch of Nova Nebula and Shanghai Hejing, Chengdu Huawei's 15The $69 issue is priced more cautiously.
Chengdu Huawei's main products cover two major fields of special digital and analog integrated circuits, of which digital integrated circuit products include logic chips, memory chips and microcontrollers represented by programmable logic devices (CPLD FPGA), and analog integrated circuit products include data conversion (ADC DAC), bus interface and power management.
According to the prospectus of Chengdu Huawei, there is still a gap between it and the leading enterprises in the same industry in terms of technology, products and markets; In terms of related technology research and development, it is still catching up with international leading enterprises, and there is a certain gap in technology accumulation, personnel experience, team size, etc.
In addition, from the perspective of income scale, there is also a certain gap between Chengdu Huawei and the first two. Taking 2022 as an example, Chengdu Huawei's revenue will be 84.5 billion yuan, while Shanghai Hejing is 155.6 billion yuan, nearly twice as much; The Nova Nebula is 217.4 billion yuan, more than 25 times.