Editorial Department of this journal |Qi Yongchao
In January, the market as a whole showed a ** adjustment, but ** stocks such as "Zhongzitou" central enterprises ushered in a round of sharpness. In the current market environment where favorable policies continue to increase and stock index points and valuation levels further decline, how will the market perform in February? Institutions believe that the spring restlessness** will still not be absent, and the increasingly high "cost performance" of A-shares is bringing more attention opportunities.
Market ** correction in January
Foreign capital is increasing its "sweeping" against the market
In retrospect, the overall market performance in January was under pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index** exceeding 6%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index both fell by more than 10%. Even though the market is under pressure, there are bright spots, and many industries ushered in a reversal in January**. According to the statistics of 31 major industries in Shenwan, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, banking, public utilities, and building decoration have all turned red (total market value weighted average method statistics), and coal has risen by 1215%, petroleum and petrochemical ranked second, with an increase of 970%。In November 2023 and December 2023, the coal sector also recorded**. The coal sector is characterized by high dividends and low valuations, reflecting a defensive market style.
In addition, with the coal sector with the same characteristics of the "Chinese word" central enterprise sector also ushered in a strong performance, such as the last trading day of January, China Television Media continued to close out of the limit, the company's share price has closed out of the "9 days 8 boards", on the same day, China Construction Huaneng is against the market to close out of the 20cm limit. On the whole, the "Zhongzitou" central enterprise sector in January ** more than 6%, that month, China Television Media, China Textile Standard and China Railway Assembly and other shares rose by more than 20%.
It is worth mentioning that the "smart money" capital that is good at the first has started to act again, and its top companies are also dominated by "Zhongzitou" central enterprises.
According to the data, on January 31, the net inflow of northbound funds was 3.7 billion yuan, and on January 30, it was also a net inflow, with an amount of 1.7 billion yuan. In addition, statistics from January 22 to January 31 in the past 8 trading days show that 6 trading days of northbound funds were net inflows, and the cumulative net inflow reached 17 billion yuan.
During this period (January 22 to January 31), more than 1,800 stocks received a net of northbound funds, more than 220 stocks received a net number of more than 5 million shares, more than 80 received a net number of more than 10 million shares, China State Construction, Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China received more than 50 million shares, and Sinopec, Nanshan Aluminum and Vanadium and Titanium Shares also received a net number of shares, all exceeding 30 million shares (see Table 1).
Recently, the "highlights" of the market also include the annual report forecast of listed companies. Recently, the 2023 annual report performance forecast of listed companies has entered the most intensive disclosure period, and the stock prices of many companies have been stimulated by the performance increase to usher in a reverse market**. For example, the "Ningwang" CATL era is expected to increase its net profit by 38% year-on-year in 202331%~48.07% stimulus, the company's stock price bucked the market on January 31 by nearly 8%.；Zhongma Transmission said on January 29 that it expects its annual performance in 2023 to increase by 63 year-on-year33%~87.01%, after that, the company's stock price closed two consecutive daily limits on January 30 and January 31.
Private equity and other institutions are taking active action
Brokers are "looking forward to" spring restlessness**
In the current overall pressure market environment, many institutions are going in the opposite direction, such as private equity, that is, collectively increasing their positions. According to the data of the private placement network, as of January 19, 2024, the **private placement** index is 7915%, an increase of 037%, while this value hit a new high in the last 11 weeks.
In addition, after a period of "silence", Dan Bin, the helmsman of Oriental Harbor, who won the 2023 10 billion private equity championship, began to speak again. On January 31, Dan Bin posted relevant content on social platforms, saying that the key to A-shares is still too expensive, and if they are like coal with a dividend payout rate of around 10%, it is difficult to fall, because it can be repaid in 7 years by paying dividends.
In addition to private equity institutions, other institutions have also made "new moves" in the near future. Chinese media previously temporarily disclosed the top ten outstanding shareholders' positions as of January 22, in which it can be seen that many institutions have increased their positions, such as compared with December 15, 2023, the social security ** 420 portfolio increased by 177030,000 shares to 1613760,000 shares; According to the latest shareholder shareholdings disclosed by Tozai Technology as of January 26, Bank of Communications Schroder Data Industry flexibly allocated ** to increase its position by 487680,000 shares to 2073510,000 shares.
And the reason why various institutions are actively acting is that there are many advantages and continuous endorsements. For example, the People's Bank of China recently decided to reduce the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0 from February 5, 20245 percentage points, after the reduction, the weighted average reserve ratio of financial institutions is about 70%。In addition, the regulator has also released positive signals recently, such as proposing to "build an investor-oriented capital market" for the first time.
At the same time, listed companies are also actively carrying out repurchase actions, and the repurchase efforts have been further increased. According to incomplete statistics, in January, the repurchase amount of listed companies reached 15 billion yuan. In comparison, it will be 13.9 billion yuan in December 2023; $11.7 billion in November 2023.
There is a round of spring restlessness in the past year, and many brokerages have pointed out that this round in 2024 will not be absent. As Everbright ** said, after the early adjustment, the current A** field has a high cost performance. Combined with the continuous efforts of recent policies, the spring of this year's market is expected to gradually come.
Others believe that the market is getting closer and closer to the "inflection point". For example, Zheshang** said that the market is expected to turn upward in February, because on the one hand, the market valuation and sentiment are at a low level after the adjustment in January; On the other hand, the continuous increase in reform and opening-up and stable growth policies has significantly increased market risk appetite.
In February, gold stocks focused on a number of keywords
Including "medium and special valuation", high dividends, over-falling, etc
For investment opportunities in February, many institutions have a number of key keywords, such as excellent performance, high dividend strategy, "medium and special valuation", over-falling sectors, etc. Judging from the list of gold stocks transferred by brokerages in February, they also focus on the above keywords.
Everbright** said that from the perspective of the macroeconomic environment and market environment, the high-dividend strategy can still be used as a bottom position for stable income. In addition, various policies to stabilize growth and stabilize the market have been frequently introduced recently, and some of them have relatively clear directions, such as central enterprises, stable growth, and high-level reform and opening up in Pudong New Area, which may also be worth paying attention to. In addition, the growth sectors with large adjustments in the current round of market adjustment are also worth paying attention to.
At present, about 200 ** were transferred into the gold stock pool in February by brokers, among them, the "Zhongzitou" central enterprises were recommended by brokers. For example, China Pacific Insurance has been recommended by 7 brokerages, including China Merchants**, Guoxin** and Soochow**; CNOOC Limited was recommended by five brokerage institutions, including Soochow**, Everbright**, and Dongxing**. In addition, a number of other state-owned enterprises, such as China Mobile, China Shenhua and China Unicom, have also been recommended by a number of institutions (see Table 2).
In addition, the high-dividend sector** represented by coal is also recommended by brokers. For example, Yankuang Energy, Guanghui Energy and CNOOC, which have dividend yields of more than 9%, and China Shenhua, Bank of Jiangsu and Yutong Bus, which have dividend yields of more than 5%, have entered the gold stock pool of securities companies (see Table 3).
It is worth mentioning that many high-dividend periods have a strong trend, such as a dividend yield of 1519% of Yankuang Energy, the company's share price in January **15%, and recently hit a new high against the market；The dividend yield is 902% of Shaanxi Coal, as of January 31**, the company's share price closed at 24 yuan18 shares, a record high since its listing in January 2014 (see Figure 1). Another example is the bank stock Bank of Beijing, as of January 31**, the company's share price closed at 510 yuan shares, a new high in the past 5 years (see Figure 2).
(The ** mentioned in the article is for example analysis only, not as a recommendation for buying and selling.) ）