On Friday, A-shares continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index once falling below 2,700 points. Specific to the disk, the liquor sector has become one of the focuses of the market, and the liquor Xiaobaima Shede Liquor Industry, which once fell to the limit, is the focus of discussion.
Friday Shede Liquor with 062% opened slightly higher, first narrowed near the flat line after the opening**, began to accelerate downward after 10:30, hit the fall limit at 14:25, and fell 707%。The market value evaporated about 1.9 billion yuan in a day, and the latest is 24.9 billion yuan. In the past 4 days, Shede Liquor has been in the dark continuously, with a total of **1705%。
In the Shede liquor stock bar, the most shareholders ask what the cost is, some shareholders say that the cost is more than 120, some shareholders say that it is more than 130, and there are shareholders above 230. The latest number of shareholders of Shede Liquor is 11440,000 households.
Drunkards also dive into the water
Also diving was the alcoholic liquor, which traded at 0 on Friday03% opened slightly lower, the beginning of the session basically ran above the flat line, but also after 10:30, the stock price accelerated downward, and the end of the market also hit the fall limit, ** when the plunge fell 575%。In terms of daily **, the drunkard wine is 5 consecutive yin, with a cumulative decline of 1642%。
Liquor stocks are differentiated as a whole
Of course, if you look at the entire liquor sector, Friday is not one-sided. Take the constituent stocks of CSI liquor as an example, Jinshiyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu are the first, of which Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu, which have a market value of more than 100 billion, rose by 2 respectively71% and 229%。
As for ***, in addition to the aforementioned Shede Liquor and Drunkard Liquor, Tianyoude Liquor, Golden Seed Liquor, and Elite also fell first. Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe, the four 100 billion giants, are respectively85% and 049%。
Year**4 consecutive clouds
As the "eternal god" in the hearts of shareholders, the CSI Liquor Index has hit 21663 since February 18, 2021After the all-time high of 85 points, the liquor stepped down from the altar step by step. According to this Friday's ** point 10831Calculated at 06 points, in about 3 years, the index has been **about 50%. From the perspective of the year, the CSI liquor index has been negative for 4 consecutive years.
Is there a good opportunity for the liquor sector?
With the long-term and substantial growth of the liquor sector, the number of people who are optimistic about the liquor sector has begun to increase, and their core views are nothing more than the following 3 points:
First, the valuation of the liquor sector is becoming more and more reasonable. According to data from Oriental Wealth Choice, the latest valuation (TTM) of CSI Liquor is 2308 times, with a P/E percentile of 165%, i.e. the current valuation is only 16 more than historically5% of trading days are more expensive. Compared with the valuation of more than 70 times in early February 2021, the valuation of the CSI Baijiu Index has fallen by about 68%. Judging from the chart below, the current valuation of the CSI liquor sector has basically returned to the level of early 2019.
Second, the liquor sector is still one of the most stable sectors in the A-share market. For example, in the recently disclosed 2023 performance forecast, Kweichow Moutai is expected to earn 73.5 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 17% year-on-year2%；Elite expects to earn 32.4 billion yuan, an increase of 95 percent year-on-year83%；Rock shares are expected to earn up to 13.5 billion yuan, an increase of 262 year-on-year47%。In addition, Shuijingfang issued an announcement on a slight increase in performance, and Shunxin Agriculture and Golden Seed Liquor issued an announcement on a performance reduction in losses.
From the perspective of the extended cycle, data from Oriental Wealth Choice shows that in the third quarter of 2023, the liquor sector will achieve a total net profit of 352 net profit attributable to the parent company7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1792%。Since the third quarter of 2020, the liquor sector has maintained double-digit growth for 13 consecutive quarters.
Third, institutions still prefer liquor. Taking the public offering as an example, the 2023 quarterly report shows that Kweichow Moutai is still the largest heavy stock in the public offering, and since the 2019 annual report, it has ranked the largest heavy stock in the public offering for 17 consecutive reporting periods. Among the top ten heavy stocks in the public offering, there are three liquor stocks: Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu.
Institutions are optimistic about the liquor sector
In the eyes of institutions, it is also believed that liquor stocks are becoming more and more cost-effective. Wanhe** said that the valuation of wine companies such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao has fallen to below 20 times recently, and the industry may be close to the bottom. Kaiyuan** also believes that the current market's pessimistic expectations for liquor consumption are relatively sufficient, and the valuation of liquor is at a low level after **, and it attaches importance to the opportunity of plate layout.
Guoxin** said that it can be moderately optimistic about the liquor sector. The agency said that the darkest moment of the fundamentals of the liquor sector has passed, and with the landing of macro stimulus policies, the industry inventory cycle is expected to accelerate to the bottom, and the first cycle is expected to usher in an upward inflection point.
From the perspective of inventory, Guojin ** said that at present, especially large businessmen, they tend to be more rational and more risk-resistant, and there is no need to worry too much about problems such as high channel inventory. The fundamentals of liquor are still in a steady recovery trend, but the dynamic sales differentiation between brand liquor companies and low-tier liquor companies, and the differentiation between large and small merchants are still being interpreted.
Of course, there are prudent institutions. For example, Zheshang ** said for the upcoming Spring Festival that the performance of liquor is expected to be basically the same as that of the same period in the lunar calendar last year, and the Spring Festival is expected to be a slight increase. In addition, the exchange of price for volume is significant, and wine companies have strengthened their competition for share, and the performance of batch prices may be relatively weak.
Article**: Oriental Wealth Research Center).