The beautiful mythical story of CRRC , I made 3 million and left after someone bought it all

When I made more than 3 million yuan on the ** of CRRC and retreated, someone used 1.7 million yuan to add 4 times leverage, and nearly 10 million funds were full of CRRC's **, and after the two fall limits, his 1.7 million yuan principal was all lost.

In the ** investment market, there is such a sentence "good cash is bad", and there is also a popular "** to buy in a place where no one cares, sell in the crowd when the voice is boiling" warning saying. If you can really understand the meaning of these words, you will become the kind of person who harvests "leeks" in the market; You will also be able to figure out how to use humanity to make money in the investment market, and in the end you will beat more than 95% of the investors!

In the book "Memoirs of a Craftsman", there is such a story:

Thomas is one of the top speculators in the market, and he and another partner jointly sit in the cotton market and go long on cotton.

It really fulfills the saying "not afraid of strong opponents, only afraid of pig-like teammates".

At the critical moment of their victory, Thomas did not expect that his partner was a short-sighted and timid fellow, and actually escaped, resulting in Thomas also being implicated, not only did not make a penny, but lost millions of dollars, and most seriously, Thomas's company was also forced to close.

This is the most humiliating and fiasco operation that Thomas, a top speculator, has ever encountered in entering the ** market.

Thomas is a bigwig-level figure in the ** market, he sat on the cotton and failed miserably, in the industry exploded, all the ** traders exaggerated, exaggerated and even falsely spread this matter, in this case, all traders began to short the cotton in July.

At this time, Livingston was already a rising star in the market, and in the speculative market, he was also a well-known figure, and he also had a certain influence.

After Livingston heard about Thomas's fiasco in cotton, he did not follow the public and joined the team of shorting cotton, he first did a lot of research in the cotton trading market, and inquired about a large number of trading reports, after some argumentation and analysis, Livingston felt that the cotton market that everyone is bearish on is actually not as bad as people imagined. Thomas's failure was not a problem in the cotton market, but mainly due to the ignorance and short-sighted stupidity of his teammates.

After a series of research, Livingston decided to stand on the opposite side of the crowd - to go long cotton!

In May, Livingston began to buy a large number of cotton contracts in July, he first bought 100,000 orders, at this time, due to the public wanton short cotton, the number of sell orders is very huge, therefore, Livingston bought the 100,000 huge orders, the transaction was relatively smooth, and the cotton ** in the cover of the huge number of sell orders, and did not appear because of the 100,000 huge number of long orders.

After seeing this situation, Livingston was very sure that in the entire cotton market, everyone except himself was bullish on cotton and was short.

After that, he continued to buy the July contract of cotton one after another, and when he bought the last long order, the cotton **began to start**, and Livingston immediately stopped buying, at this time, the number of his long orders was as high as 140,000 orders.

In the following trading days, the ** of cotton rose sharply, but Livingston found that this ** phenomenon was not actually due to his long purchases, but the current trend of cotton, which should have been so. He just made a correct judgment on the ** trend of cotton.

With the continuous development of cotton, a large number of bears have gathered in the market, and Livingston has been aware of this at this time, so he began to try his best to sell a huge amount of 140,000 long orders, but at this time in the market, the buy orders are pitiful, and his huge long orders can't get out of his hands at all.

Livingston was at an impasse for a while, and he was worried and anxious that he would not be able to make a profit in the face of a huge profit. If he can't sell long orders in time, it will undoubtedly be a catastrophic threat to him when the shorts in the market accumulate more and more.

When Livingston was confused by the more than 140,000 orders that could not be sold, one morning, as soon as he entered the elevator leading to the office, a friend also rushed into the elevator and said to Livingston with a smile: "Have you read the newspaper?" Do you know a ** sexual message? ”；

Livingston said, "No! What** sexual message? ”；

A friend said, "What an eye-catching title!" Such an important front-page position, you don't actually see it? ”

Livingston said, 'I've never read the kind of newspaper you are talking about, tell me, what is the news;

My friend said: "It's all about you, the newspaper said that you are sitting on the July cotton!" ”

Livingston was at a loss when he heard the news about himself that he didn't even know.

When his friend saw Livingston's blank expression, he thought he was in an embarrassing situation, and thought that Livingston was very not enough of a friend, and that he didn't even dare to admit it when he talked about it in person.

When Livingston arrived at the office, he sent someone to buy a newspaper of the kind that his friend said, and he took the newspaper, and was greeted by the headline on the front page: "Livingston controls the cotton in July!" ”。

At that time, Livingston was also well-known in the speculative market, and he immediately realized that such news would cause chaos in the cotton market. In the name of "sitting in the village", there will definitely be a lot of people rushing to buy July cotton, because even his friend thinks that "such a good thing to make a lot of money will not tell him".

At this time, a thought flashed through Livingston's mind: "Why not take advantage of this news and take advantage of the situation to sell the 140,000 huge orders in your hand?" ”。

Livingston didn't think that there was no more opportunity and reason than to use this kind of news in the newspaper to get rid of his more than 140,000 orders.

He believes that the news in the newspaper will make readers go crazy or even exaggerate the rumors, and readers will make some unexpected crazy moves after seeing this kind of news, so that there will be a lot of buy orders in the cotton market.

In the market, under the influence of Livingston, the frenzied rush to buy cotton in July exceeded Livingston's imagination, and in less than 10 minutes after the opening, his more than 140,000 orders were all snapped up, and the selling prices were the most popular transactions of the day.

Later, Livingston said: "I was anxious for many days on the problem, but unexpectedly by a news in the newspaper to solve the problem, if there is no news, I can't be so easy to sell the 140,000 huge orders in my hand without paying any price, and after selling, **still maintain**." This is not something I can do personally, but it is what the news in the newspaper has achieved for me."

After watching this very real and classic case in "**The Great Fighter", I remembered my similar experience with the ** of "CRRC".

In 2014, in a work assignment to go out of the work task, I was very fortunate to come into contact with and visit the "CNR" company, as a ** investor, once there is a certain sense of investment in my mind, in the actual work and life of the contact with some things, I will involuntarily move closer to my own ** investment.

In the past, in the first investment research, I have had the tracking and attention to the railway infrastructure industry, coupled with the actual visit and inspection of the company CNR, I am first full of confidence in the future development of this company, and then began a more in-depth study of this one.

With the financial data and fundamentals very good, and fully in line with my investment standards, I decided to buy the "CNR" this one**.

On the eve of the National Day in 2014, the stock price of CNR has been hovering at about 5 yuan per share, because I have a full understanding and in-depth contact with this company, and for its performance, I have done special research, so I think that about 5 yuan per share of "CNR" ** has great investment value, in the face of such a low stock price of CNR, I decisively bought about 100,000 shares of CNR at about 5 yuan per share.

After buying the ** CNR, because of my understanding of this company, in the face of the fluctuating stock price, I did not buy and sell casually, but held it all the time. On October 27, 2014, the news of the merger and reorganization of China South Railway and China North Railway came out, and the two leading companies of China's railway cars were suspended at the same time to plan for reorganization.

The suspension time is about two months, on December 30, 2014, CNR released a specific restructuring plan, and resumed trading on December 31, after the opening, CNR continued to 6 consecutive one-word price limit, the stock price from I bought about 5 yuan per share, rose to more than 10 yuan. At this time, I am not in a hurry to sell, because at this time, it is only the announcement of the plan, and the real merger action has not yet been implemented. After the news of the merger from China South and North Railway, the stock prices of the two companies have started a continuous road.

Stimulated by the good news, the share price of CNR rose from the lowest of about 4 yuan to more than 42 yuan in 2015, and the stock price increased more than tenfold.

When the stock prices of the two companies rose tenfold at the same time, China South Locomotive and China North Locomotive announced that they had passed the merger proposal, and after carefully reading the merger proposal issued by the two companies, I think the time is ripe, the good has been cashed in, and it is time to sell **. So I sold 100,000 shares of CNR at 35 yuan per share, with a profit of about 30 yuan per share, and a total profit of about 3 million yuan.

Since the completion of the merger in April 2015, CRRC's share price has been in a continuous trend. The reason for this, from a fundamental point of view, is that CRRC's performance in the past three years is really unsatisfactory. It presents the following three characteristics;

First, operating income has been declining for three consecutive years. From 240 billion yuan in 2015 to 210 billion yuan in 2017, a decrease of 12%.

Second, net profit has declined for three consecutive years. It dropped from 11.8 billion yuan in 2015 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2017.

Third, the total number of employees has declined for the third year in a row. From 18 in 201560,000 down to 17 in 201760,000 people, a decrease of 10,000 in two years.

There was such a terrifying story on the ** of CRRC in China:

In a residential area in Changsha, Hunan, a young man was blown up because he added four times the leverage and used nearly 10 million yuan to buy the ** of CRRC, and all the principal of 1.7 million yuan was lost, and the man jumped to his death.

When the man bought CRRC **, it was already after the implementation of the merger plan of China South Railway and North Locomotive, and at this time, if he fantasized about the merger news, he basically did not have a little common sense of "using human nature to make money".

The man with a principal of 1.7 million and added 4 times the leverage, in the case of nearly 10 million funds, the whole warehouse bought the CRRC this **, the reason why he did this, is to see the merger of the north and south car, there are great expectations and fantasies for the CRRC, but very disappointed that after he bought, on June 9 and 10, 2015, the CRRC ** appeared two consecutive down limits, and his 1.7 million yuan of principal was all lost.

Before jumping off the building, the man left a paragraph in the stock bar with the ID name "** who wants to make money":

"Before leaving this world, I just want to say, I am willing to gamble and lose, the principal is 1.7 million plus four times the financing, the whole warehouse is in the car, I don't blame anyone, I blame myself for being greedy, I want to give my family a comfortable life, who wants to lose everything, farewell, family, I love you, I love this world. "

In view of the situation of the man's leveraged cross position ** CRRC, on June 8, the first day of the resumption of CRRC's "" word limit, closed at 324 yuan, but the next day, CRRC had huge fluctuations, with a price limit of 35After the opening of 64 yuan, it was sharply **, almost close to the limit price, and closed at 2938 yuan, which once hit the fall limit during the session, fluctuated by 20% throughout the day.

If it is really 1:4 financing, the full position of CRRC, then its total investment is 8.5 million yuan, of which its own principal is 1.7 million, with 6.8 million yuan, according to the 20% fluctuation of the day, the maximum loss of its account in a day has reached 1.7 million.

If the investor cannot add funds, the allocation company will definitely choose to force the liquidation in order to ensure that the 6.8 million it lent will not be lost. In this way, the investor's own funds are gone, so the allocation of capital ** is a knife to dance on the neck. "

For those customers who have reached the warning line, the company will give them a margin call, or reduce it.

Taking the leverage of 1:4 as an example, a loss of 15% may require an increase in margin, and the customer will receive the ** of the matching company. Once the allotment person does not take any action, and the liquidation line is reached, the allotment company will force the liquidation of the position.

However, from the perspective of the financing ratio, the 1:4 high-leverage allocation belongs to the allocation business of unofficial channels, and it is almost impossible to have such a high allocation ratio in the compliance of the company.

* The company's financing generally needs to assess the customer's own financial strength, and there are also restrictions on the financing of the company, for example, some high-risk stocks are not on the list of financing.

From the perspective of financing ratio, the general financing ratio of ** company will not exceed 1:2, and the same will set a warning line, and there is also a mechanism for forced liquidation.

From the "Memoirs of a Worker" in which Livingston used false news in the newspaper to sell cotton and retreated, to my purchase of CNR**, which I have been holding since the news of the merger came out, to when the merger action was implemented and implemented, I waited for the opportunity to sell ** and made a profit of more than 3 million, and finally to these stories of people jumping to their deaths after buying CRRC ** because of financing. I began to understand that in the ** market, the power of people to influence each other is very huge, sometimes everyone will swarm to do a certain thing at the same time, causing things to deviate from its essence, at this time, you should understand a little "one of the fastest ways to make money in **, is to use human nature to make money".

February** Dynamic Incentive Program