2023 is the first year when overcharging and battery swapping begin to increase each other's strength.
Ideal, Xpeng, Zeekr, and Zhiji have all deployed, or clearly revealed, that they will deploy ultra-fast charging products and technologies such as 800V high-voltage platforms, 4C and 5C batteries, and supercharging stations on a large scaleWith Huawei's military order to deploy 100,000 liquid-cooled supercharging piles within the next year, the scale of supercharging is expected to usher in a wave of catapults in 2024.
It should be noted that Huawei's entry into the game is not just the number of 100,000 supercharging pilesIt is also likely to bring large-scale cost reduction to the supercharging industry with its own potential energy, and eventually promote the end of a large number of friendly forces, further accelerating supercharging.
The supercharging faction has received help from many parties, and the battery swapping faction is not to be outdone.
NIO has successively signed strategic cooperation agreements with four OEMs, one local** and one photovoltaic company, which has expanded its circle of friends, especially the circle of friends of car companies.
But,Since it still takes time for the battery pack specifications, model chassis and battery swap technical route to form a unified standard, the cooperation results of the battery swap faction cannot be seen immediately. It is still difficult to assess whether the new car companies that have joined NIO's circle of friends can turn hostility into friendship.
Moreover, NIO itself is also betting on both ends. This is the largest battery swap operator, and it is currently the largest operator of supercharging station construction.
In terms of the rapid energy replenishment of electric vehicles, NIO's battery swap is far ahead among various car companies. However, "Huawei" has rushed to challenge the battery swap with greater momentum, more unified standards, and more consistent actions.
2024 is only the first year of short-handed combat.
"Electric Vehicle Observer" and "Cyber Cars" will soon release a series of annual stocktaking articles, so stay tuned. Published Articles:
It's a bit faceted, and the intelligent driving policy in 2023 will be advancing at full speed.
New energy vehicles in 2024**: sales increased by more than 30% to 12.5 million units (ppt).
**2024: The strong of new energy vehicle companies are stronger, and the weak are leaving
In 2024, the supercharge ejection starts
The explosion of supercharging begins with demand.
China's new energy vehicle market, which has been developed for more than 10 years, has increased its demand from the early "there is a charge" to "a fast charge". In the past, consumers had a place to charge Amitabha, but now? It's a bit of a "craving for swan meat".
In September 2022, Xpeng G9 was officially launched, and although the sales volume of the model fell due to SKU and ** reasons, it fired the first shot of the 800V platform and ultra-fast charging concept in the consumer market.
Then, in June 2023, the second product under the Xpeng 800V high-voltage platform, the Xpeng G6, was also officially launched, followed by Zhiji LS6, Zhijie S7, ZEEKR 007, Xpeng X9, Ideal MEGA, Xiaomi SU7 and other models with the main 800V platform high-voltage fast charging label have been unveiled one after anotherIt's like you can't get mixed up in the car circle without shouting the slogan of a 10-minute range of hundreds of kilometers.
It is foreseeable that with the gradual maturity of high-charge rate batteries and 800V high-voltage platform technology, models that support or even only support overcharging will emerge in the future.
However, in the current structure of charging facilities, there are still very few supercharging piles.
As of the end of November 2023, it has invested in the construction of more than 9,000 supercharging piles, of which nearly 1,000 have a power of more than 360kW. The second is ZEEKR, which has invested in the construction of more than 2,000 ultra-fast charging piles with a power of 360kw and 300+ supercharging stations.
This is followed by Xpeng's 1,000 or so 480kW supercharging piles, as well as the ideal of having 300 to 400 5C ultra-fast charging piles.
The total number of supercharging piles owned by the above four new forces is more than 10,000, of which less than 5,000 are more than 480kw. However, the number of Xpeng G6 models alone has been about 40,000 units, and the number of overcharging sites is significantly lower than expected.
The imbalance between supply and demand also indicates that in 2024, the number of ultra-fast charging stations is bound to usher in a wave of growth.
For example, Ideal originally planned to invest in 3,000 supercharging stations by 2025, but has now refined this goal to challenge the construction of 2,000 supercharging stations in 2024; NIO has also confirmed that it will add 20,000 charging piles (including destination charging) this year, and will start deploying 640kW ultra-fast charging piles in April.
And it is worth noting that Huawei, which has turned the river and the sea in the automobile circle with its "world" generation models, will also enter the energy supplement circle in a big way:In 2024, 100,000 fully liquid-cooled ultra-fast charging piles with a peak power of 600kW will be deployed.
At the Zhijie S7 press conference, Huawei revealed the number of liquid-cooled supercharging piles deployed.
Just look at the order of magnitude,Huawei's entry into the game has increased the scale of supercharging piles from 4 figures to 6 figures.
But more importantly, Huawei's entry is likely to have a knock-on effect.
Although Huawei has long had a charging module business, at that time, either Huawei was not deeply involved in the automotive industry, or the models launched were new energy hybrid models such as Wenjie, which mainly focused on extended range routes, and the demand for ultra-fast charging was not strong.
However, with the launch of the Zhijie series of products and the potential market demand for ultra-fast charging piles, Huawei has also prompted Huawei to launch more charging pile products.
A person from the charging network department of the new force commented that there is no technical threshold for a single ultra-fast charging pileHuawei's own advantage lies in the linkage of vehicles and piles.
For example, if the OEM wants to do technological innovation on the BMS, it needs the technical support and joint debugging of the charging module manufacturer; In turn, if pile enterprises want to realize the implementation of any new technology, they also need the cooperation and suggestions of the three electric departments of the main engine factory.
It revealed that there are more or less communication barriers between pile companies and OEMs, "it turns out that pile companies can only frequently participate in various forums in the industry to understand the plans and ideas of car companies, or rent a large number of new energy products for testing, and then put forward ideas to OEMs, and any changes to the products are time-consuming and labor-intensive." ”
And now Huawei itselfIt not only makes charging modules, but also goes deep into the production and manufacturing process of vehiclesIt is equivalent to completely breaking down the communication barrier.
However, Huawei entered the game with a natural advantageCharging operators are not afraid, but hope that Huawei can quickly deploy liquid-cooled supercharging piles.
In the opinion of many industry insiders, with Huawei's strength, it is not difficult to deploy 100,000 liquid-cooled supercharging piles in 2024, and the important thing is that with Huawei's potential energy, the cost of liquid-cooled supercharging piles is expected to usher in a significant reduction, "This is the main factor that promotes the development of supercharging." ”
At present, the cost of a 120kW air-cooled DC fast charging pile on the market is about 20,000-30,000 yuan, while the cost of a fully liquid-cooled fast charging pile is generally more than 200,000-300,000 yuan. According to the "Yuanchuan Automobile Review", the cost of Huawei's fully liquid-cooled 600kW supercharging pile even came to 600,000 yuan.
However, in any industry, it is an inevitable trend to achieve scale effect and complete cost reduction and efficiency increase. A senior executive of a charging operator**, Huawei's entry into the market can complete cost reduction and efficiency improvement by promoting technological innovation," said HuaweiIt is highly expected that Huawei will be able to align the investment cost of a single parking space between the liquid-cooled supercharging pile and the split air-cooled equipment at the same power.
Once the cost is effectively controlled, and the return on investment cycle of the station returns to a reasonable range, then not only the special calls, star charging, but even the national power will no longer maintain a wait-and-see attitude, but directly promote the deployment of supercharging piles.
At that time, after the start of catapulting, supercharging will usher in a wave of explosive growth.
Finding friends is just the first step in the promotion of battery swapping
Compared to the charging route in which all the people are soldiers,Although there are several car companies on the battery swap route, NIO is fighting alone in the 2C field, and the others either do not have a start, or are mainly oriented to the 2B operating market.
Before the establishment of NIO, it determined that battery swapping was one of the energy replenishment routes. Shortly after the release of NIO's first car, the ES8, NIO built its first battery swap station. As of January 25, 2024, NIO has deployed 2,345 battery swap stations across the country, including 757 highway battery swap stations, and has opened up a high-speed battery swap network in 11 major urban agglomerations with 7 verticals, 6 horizontals.
However, as an infrastructure, NIO's battery swap investment is huge, and the loss is not small. Li Bin said frankly, "The loss in the previous period was a little more. Shen Fei, senior vice president of NIO, also said in April 2023"The break-even line of NIO battery swap stations is about 50 to 60 orders a day, and the current average daily order volume of NIO battery swap stations is 35 to 36 orders, and more car brands need to join to reduce losses. ”
As a result, NIO made alliances. In 2023, NIO made a breakthrough in making friends and reached a battery swap cooperation agreement with other car companies.
In November 2023, NIO signed strategic cooperation agreements with Changan Automobile and Geely Holding on battery swap business. In January 2024, NIO reached a strategic cooperation agreement with Anhui Energy Group and Anhui Traffic Control Group on the construction of a storage, charging and swapping system, and then officially announced that it had reached a strategic cooperation agreement on battery swapping with JAC Automobile Group and Chery Automobile.
Within 3 months, NIO has expanded its circle of friends to four OEMs and one place**, but how much increase can the addition of these entities bring to NIO and the battery swap faction?
Let's start with the ** level. An industry insider interpreted the cooperation reached by Weilai with Anhui Energy Group and Anhui Traffic Control Group, saying that this cooperation will be implemented by Zhongan Energy."In essence, it is a diversified energy supplement construction led by state-owned assetsNIO is only one of the main players involved in the construction. The 1,000 battery swap stations mentioned in the cooperation will also be operated by Zhongan EnergyThe new energy supply station as a whole will not be under the 'NIO POWER' brand.
There is a high probability that the Anhui battery swap station built by Weilai will be listed as "Anhui Xiaoneng".
Of course, participating in the construction can allow NIO to obtain certain financial benefits, but it does not provide much support for promoting its own brand and feeding back vehicle sales.
It should be noted that the construction led by the local government also means that the 1,000 battery swap stations will all be deployed in Anhui Province, although the density of battery swap stations in the province can be improved, but it cannot make a breakthrough in the country.
The good news is that because it is the best force to lead,The nature of these 1,000 battery swap stations in the province is more inclined to infrastructureAnd the KPI has been set, the next thing is only a matter of specific site selection and investment progress.
In contrast,The cooperation between NIO and the four OEMs will not only have to overcome the challenge of changing roles from rivals to allies, but also have to work together to overcome technical issues, standards and cooperation models.
NIO and Geely Holding have reached a battery swap cooperation.
First of all, reaching a battery swap cooperation means that the specifications of the battery pack must be unified. Whether it is each company launching a new model to match the existing battery pack specifications in the NIO system, or NIO taking the lead in launching a new set of battery pack standards and opening it up to various car companies in the alliance.
This also means that each company will not be able to differentiate itself in terms of batteries for their new models.
Secondly, the design of the battery pack specification is related to the chassis structure, which is the most sensitive area of each OEM. How NIO, which has mastered battery swapping technology, participates in the adaptation of the battery pack and chassis, and how deeply it participates, all parties need to continue to explore.
Again,Who will bear the construction cost of the battery swap station, who will hold the battery assets, and how to distribute the revenue of the battery swap station are all issues that need to be continuously run in and finalized.
However, Wang Lei, chief operating officer of the well-known charging operator CAMS, believes that the main factor that the battery swap mode is difficult to roll out on a large scale is that the problems such as battery pack standards and battery asset ownership cannot be effectively solved. ”
However, it takes time for OEMs to negotiate the cooperation model, it takes time for the research and development of models, and it takes time for the investment and construction of stations, perhapsBy the time the battery swap alliance with NIO as the core really takes a step forward, Huawei's 100,000 supercharging piles have been almost deployed.
The good news is that in the field of passenger cars, in addition to NIO is single-handedly promoting the construction of the battery swap alliance, Feifan and Aion are also exploring the battery swap mode, but the two nominal "battery swap helpers" have not made substantial progress.
First, because the total number of battery swap stations deployed by Feifan and Aion is less than 100, and second, the battery swap methods adopted by Feifan, Aion, and Weilai are all different.
A senior industry insider said that he wants the battery swap mode to develop and growNot only should the battery specifications be unified, but the battery replacement method should also be unified.
This is also the main reason why charging is more common than battery swapping:The charging gun interfaces are standardized, but the battery swapping technology has not yet been unified"Xpeng's cars can be charged at the Ideal Supercharging Station, but even if they all use 100kWh battery packs, NIO's cars can't go to Feifan or Aion's stations to change their batteries." ”
The number of Feifan car swap station stations is still very small.
Taking a step back, even if the unification of the various battery swap factions of passenger cars is completed one day in the future, the characteristics of the battery swap station also form a certain limit on the upper limit of its turnover rate.
At this stage, no matter what kind of technical route, the battery swap station basically adopts the form of single channel battery swap, that is, it can only accommodate one car at the same time for battery swap and energy replenishment. Although it can shorten the battery replacement time of a bicycle to 4 minutes or even less than 2 minutes, it still cannot avoid the problem of queuing in areas with dense traffic and traffic.
A senior industry insider said that there is no technical difficulty in building the battery swapping station from a single-channel mode to a multi-channel mode, but this will fall into a paradox:Busy stations need to be built into a multi-channel model, but land and power resources in busy areas are very tight"Taking the three-channel battery swap station as an example, it needs to be equipped with a transformer of more than 2000kva, and it is very challenging to approve electricity in the prosperous area under the condition of uneven power distribution in first-tier cities and provincial capitals. ”
From this point of view, in this race, the supercharge starts more slowly, but the acceleration may be faster.
You don't have to be proud of overcharging, and you don't have to be discouraged when you change batteries
Combined with the above information, it can be judged that supercharging will be more show-stealing in 2024.
But to be clear, even if the speed of supercharging expansion will be faster than that of battery swapping, butMany industry insiders believe that 2024 will not usher in a large-scale outbreak of supercharging, but is more inclined to be a year of gradual start.
First of all, even if Huawei can quickly complete the construction of the 100,000 liquid-cooled supercharging piles after entering the game, counting the help of other new forcesThe number of supercharging piles in China will not exceed 150,000.
According to the data of the China Charging Alliance, the number of public charging piles in China has reached 2.72 millionThe ratio of full charging piles to overcharging piles is about 18:1, and even the ratio of ordinary DC fast charging piles to overcharging piles is about 8:1.
That is, at the macro level,The speed of supercharging propulsion has not yet caused a qualitative change in the field of charging.
The biggest factor restricting the further acceleration of supercharging piles is also the factor that contributes to the start of supercharging: demand.
At present, it can try to eat the power of more than 360kW of supercharging piles, and the models that have been mass-produced and delivered include Xpeng G6, Xpeng G9, Zhiji LS6, etc., with a total of nearly 100,000.
It has been confirmed that mass delivery will start in 2024, and the models that support high-power charging include Xpeng X9, Li MEGA, ZEEKR 007, Zhijie S7, Xiaomi SU7, etc.
According to the calculation that the above models have all become popular models, and the average monthly sales of vehicles are stable at 8,000 units, then by the end of 2024, the number of models supporting overcharging will come to about 700,000 units.
However, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2023 alone will be as many as 9.45 million units, and by the end of 2023, the number of new energy vehicles will even come to more than 20 million.
In contrast, supercharging models are still a small circle.
Under such preconditions, Huawei and a number of OEMs can still invest in the construction of supercharging stations at any cost to do their own after-sales serviceThe operator giants and national teams in the charging market will not blindly follow the trend.
At the end of the day, it still depends on the difficulty and cycle of returns.
An employee of the charging network department of the new force revealed that if a 120kw DC fast charging pile can reach an average daily of 400 kWh of electricity (serving 8-10 vehicles), it can achieve breakeven within a year, "but in actual operation, such situations are rare, and an average of 5 orders per day for a single pile is considered good." ”
To a certain extent, this has also led to the dilemma that operators collectively do not make money.
An industry insider lamented: "The less profitable the operator, the more cautious the investment in the supercharging site." At present, there are very few models that support overcharging, and the vehicles that can be overcharged are generally private cars, and the daily household charging can be basically satisfied, and the frequency of external energy replenishment is very small. Once the investment in supercharging piles is too large, the demand growth is less or slow, and it will change from a "pioneer" to a "martyr".
This wait-and-see sentiment does not only exist among operators, but also some OEMs are also making careful calculations. For example, Li Auto's current station planning is not to build a pure supercharging station, but to take "1+3" as a minimum unit (1 overcharge + 3 fast charging), which is to find a balance between resource investment and return cycle to avoid resource waste.
Taking into account its own product matrix and overall market factors, Ideal still uses a 1+3 combination to deploy the charging network.
It's not just the cost,The diversification of charging scenarios also determines that it is impossible for supercharging to achieve the unification of the entire energy supplement field. Wang Lei revealed that CAMS divides the full-scene energy supplement into three categories: "4 hours, 1-4 hours, and 1 hour (or even 30 minutes), corresponding to community residential stations, supermarket stations and large-scale energy replenishment stations.
In Wang Lei's view, in the first two scenarios, users do not need to replenish energy quickly, "The deployment of supercharging in these two scenarios will bring anxiety to users, and the vehicle must be moved quickly to make room after it is fully charged." ”
All in all, 2024 is the first year of supercharging, not the first year of outbreak.
For the battery swap faction, although the momentum is not so strong, it does not mean that the future market will be dominated by the supercharger.
On the one hand, the slow start of the battery swap alliance does not necessarily mean that the battery swap has completely lost its living space. After all, NIO has signed agreements with four OEMs, as long as it can meet the needs of all parties and meet the interests of all partiesWith the unique battery leasing model of the battery swap mode to reduce the price, the battery swap model can still ensure a certain market share.
The car has been sold, but are you still worried that the battery swap station cannot be rolled out on a large scale?
Taking a step back, even if it cannot be popularized on the C-side, the battery swap mode can still develop and grow on the B-end with its own characteristics of rapid energy replenishment.
BAIC, Ruilan Automobile, as well as CATL, Aodong and a number of car companies have cooperated to launch operating vehicles focusing on B-end battery swapping, which is not small. In the past few years, due to the epidemic, the demand of the travel industry has shrunk, and the advantages of short battery replacement time have not been brought into play. Many battery-swapping operation vehicles have spontaneously become charging vehicles. However, now that the travel market has recovered, battery-swapped vehicles have certain advantages.
Subsequently, taxis and online car-hailing still need to continue to be electrified, and the battery swap plan is easy to become a mutually recognized plan in the cooperation between local ** and car companies - this is the most likely breakthrough for Changan and Geely, which signed contracts with NIO.
If a battery swap station with a wide coverage is built on the basis of a certain base of battery-swapping vehicles, and then the economical battery-swapping private cars for a wide audience are promoted, it is possible to form a scale effect and expand NIO's 2C battery swap market for high-end users into a 2C battery swap market for ordinary users.
In other words, taxis and ride-hailing vehicles, as well as economical passenger cars, share the battery swapping network. Start with operating vehicles, and then drive the private car market.
Changan and Geely will cooperate with NIO to make 2B battery swap operation vehicles first, and then continue to promote 2C pure electric private cars, which will have a better chance of winning. NIO's own new brands for more economic markets may also benefit from this.
In addition, there are also some non-manned operating vehicles that also have a large demand for battery replacement. Wang Lei revealed that many cities only allow earthmoving vehicles to enter the city within the specified time, for these vehicles time is money, the fastest 2-3 minutes to complete the energy replacement route can help improve the efficiency of earthmoving vehicles.
In addition, the battery swap mode also has a large space to play in trunk logistics. Trunk logistics vehicles generally use the mode of one vehicle equipped with 2-3 drivers for operation, that is, "people rest and drive". Under such working conditions, the efficiency of energy replenishment is particularly important.
That is to say, under the premise that it is an inevitable trend to open up the battery swap standard, whether it is NIO, Feifan or Aion, if they can bring down the manufacturing cost with their own battery swap technology and reach a strategic cooperation in the field of commercial vehicles, then the battery swap faction will usher in a wave of outbreaks.
But in short, in 2024, overcharging and battery swapping will not distinguish between winners and losers, but the momentum of overcharging will be stronger.
By the way, I forgot to say: the supercharging faction also has a strong fighter with a quiet and extensive layout - Tesla.