Author: Li Yunfei **Original
In the past few years, experts have been urging young people to have more children, but young people don't have children, but instead ask experts, why should I have children? Now that the cost of housing, medical care, and education is so high, isn't it fragrant for me to save the money for giving birth to and raising children? I want to give birth to you! One sentence made the expert speechless.
Let's first look at a set of data: in 2023, China's annual birth population will be 9.02 million, the number of deaths will be 11.1 million, and the natural population growth rate will be -148, the number of newborns hit a record low, and the total population decreased by 2.08 million compared to 2022. China has accelerated into an aging society. If this continues, how can the country prosper?
So let's talk about the first question first, if young people can't afford to raise children because of too much pressure, then let's stand in the perspective of social and economic development, how long will China's negative population growth last?
China's previous long-term goal for 2035 is to achieve a per capita GDP of 2$50,000, almost 1Double $270,000. According to past data, the growth rate of per capita GDP and per capita disposable income is similar. That is to say, in 2023, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents will be 39,218 yuan, so by 2035, China's per capita disposable income will reach 80,000 yuan.
According to young people nowadays, if people are afraid to have children due to low income and high pressure, does this mean that the birth rate will be further improved after the income is doubled? Now there is a ready-made data: in 2023, Shanghai's per capita disposable income will reach 8480,000 yuan, but the natural growth rate of Shanghai's permanent population was still -0 last year92‰。It is clear that doubling incomes has only improved the birth rate, but the effect has not been significant.
However, we have overlooked another factor, and that is that the average house price in Shanghai was 540,000 yuan to 640,000 yuan per square meter. Therefore, if the current national policy remains unchanged, if the housing price does not rise much after 10 years, and then the income doubles, then the growth of the birth rate will improve more obviously.
If we look at it purely from an economic point of view, if we look at it from this logic, it will probably be 10 years before the phenomenon of negative population growth in our country is to be thoroughly improved.
But then again, our parents really lived in an era of hunger, as the so-called ate last meal without the next meal, and under such conditions, they had to withstand the pressure of huge fines to have more children. The post-60s generation has the highest birth rate in recent decades. In this way, stress may just be an excuse for young people not to have children, and the real reason is probably not here.
So what is the reason why young people are reluctant to have children? That is a change of mind and concept. Today's young people are too egoistic, everyone has formed atomization, no socialization, no friends! There is no responsibility to give birth to the next generation. They would rather spend more money on puppies and kittens than use the money to raise a child. Are you saying they don't have the money to live? No, they don't want to give birth.
Of course, the ultimate root cause is that today's young people have left behind China's 5,000-year-old traditional culture and thoughts, and many young people have been Westernized. That's the scariest thing about us. Otherwise, the higher the income, the less willing they are to have children.
So, these experts of ours don't just treat the symptoms but not the root cause! While we keep pace with the times, we must also tell young people not to forget our roots. The inheritance of traditional culture and ideas is imperative, and it must be included in compulsory education. What do you think?
Author: Li Yunfei, founder of a large Internet company, CEO of a large food chain enterprise, engaged in the Internet and physical chain industry for 20 years, has been Sohu.com, Netease Finance, Tencent, Phoenix.com, Zhongxun.com, and other well-known ** platforms have been featured in succession, good at financial knowledge analysis, entrepreneurial guidance!