Because of the big A demon, everyone will have a hard time at the beginning of 2024.
Chatting with a friend who does real estate today, she can actually lie down and not do it, but because of her professional ethics, she has to grit her teeth and carry it, and she is made up of various creditor's rights and debts lawsuits every day.
Everyone has their own difficulties, and for real estate people, it seems that there has never been such a difficult time as now.
In the past, I could still imagine the future, but I always thought that there was a rescue policy, and I always thought that real estate could not be xx, and it would definitely be rescued in the end, and then it was fished up again and again, so I gradually lost my sense of awe.
In 2021, when housing prices in Shenzhen were at their hottest, I had dinner with a few friends who were in the industry, and they were still happily imagining the future, and the housing prices would catch up with the good days of HK.
No one said anything, these people were considered to be the high-income group in the city at that time, if they didn't say anything, how many people in Shenzhen could afford to buy a house with their wages?
I came to the conclusion that pigs could be blown into the sky, but in the end they couldn't escape gravity.
Real estate ultimately depends on the population, but there is a difference between the population and the consumer.
Before the house price rose, you can still use six wallets to make up, and now the six wallets of well-off families can't make up a set of down payments for a house in Shenzhen, how long can this house price be carried?
At that time, after I said this, everyone was silent, and we all experienced the era when young people in Shenzhen could afford to buy a house on their own.
Of course, the result of urban development is a kind of screening, leaving the most suitable people, and cold storage driving out those who can't afford to stay.
I remember reading a book called "Beijing Folding", behind the absurdity is realistic, in the glamorous big city, the life of the handshake building in the urban village, why stay?
Because the city is in need, the low-income group is also the foundation that supports the existence of the city, and not everyone can live in a decent apartment building.
Recently, Shenzhen has been engaged in urban renewal, which is said to be aimed at eliminating urban villages.
Now there are not many white-collar workers in the science and technology park who still know the youth of those predecessors who were taken in in Baishi Village, and now it has become a noble residential area, but young people can no longer find such a good cheap house to live in, you say that the living standard has been improved, but does a 996 migrant worker really need so many bells and whistles?
PSL restarted, thinking that it was going to stimulate real estate.
Why is consumption still weak before it stimulated consumption? Because there is really no money, who doesn't know how to consume if there is money, and who can't consume?
It's like stimulating the real estate market, it's not that you don't want to live in a big house, a good house, it's really unaffordable!
To stimulate consumption and invigorate the market, the first element is to make those target customers rich!
How many new high-paying jobs can Shenzhen offer today?
If not, or because of the cost, there are still a large number of enterprises moving out, what can be done to support the high housing prices?
The real estate people and financial people I knew before were all considered high-income groups, but now?
It is good for real estate people to have a job, and it is not a matter of salary cut, but finance is a comprehensive salary cut, and people now have to pay off their past debts, which is not a problem that can be solved by engaging in old reform.
In the high-tech industry, large companies are reducing their workforce and increasing efficiency, which means that high-paying jobs are being compressed.
In my opinion, I really can't see the reason to support Shenzhen's high housing prices.
Don't always point to the HK next door to Shenzhen, it is difficult for Hong Kong people to Hong Kong immediately, but even so, a large number of HK people still come to Shenzhen for consumption on weekends, not because they don't want to, but they also want to downgrade their consumption.
You just ask those young people and enterprises in Shenzhen, will they reach a certain critical point, they will simply leave, leave, China is so big, transportation and communication are so developed, not everything has to be you.
I always thought that the big city development model in China was almost at the end of its time.
There is no way to increase the population, like Japan and South Korea, a city circle, encircling the vast majority of the population, this is impossible, the economic composition determines the direction of population flow.
In the past 40 years, economic development has benefited from reform and opening up, and our inland civilization has moved closer to maritime civilization, so coastal cities have embarked on the fast track of development, but now the world has changed.
Of course, I am not saying that maritime foreign trade is going to be finished, but that the adjustment of the proportion of the economy has become less important than before, so even the importance of the economy of those cities that have benefited from the development of ports is also declining.
To be honest, capital itself is playing in the harvesting mode, and after some walking, I found that there was no room for growth, and soon turned to a slow decline! It's like eating sugar cane, if it's dry, is it necessary to keep the dregs?
Recently, there was a fire in Harbin, but the fire in Heilongjiang was long before Harbin was occupied by small potatoes in the south, you can go and see the port on the border with Russia, Heihe, how much has the cargo throughput increased in recent years?
Europe and the United States are now going to huddle together for warmth, and this wave of Fed interest rate hikes and balance sheet shrinkage on the surface, in fact, is actually privately directed to release water, just to maintain the prosperity on the surface.
Many traditional foreign traders feel that the business is not good, and the export to Europe and the United States is blocked, very simply, people are already engaged in the so-called controllable adjustment of the first chain, to put it bluntly, relying on China is not safe, uncontrollable, and outside of China, they have been labeled as safe and controllable.
Now we have a strong industrial chain to support, but if we are a little weaker, like Japan back then, it will have been harvested a long time ago.
I have also written a lot of articles in *** before, talking about this wave of anti-globalization operations in Europe and the United States.
On the one hand, we have the advantage of de-industrialization in Europe and the United States, and the hollowing out is irreversible, and on the other hand, we have to adjust the structure of foreign trade because we are targeted by the traditional maritime hegemons.
The ** between China and Russia is rising quite fast.
To the west to Central Asia, the Belt and Road will gradually brighten up, without the artificial obstacles before Da Mao.
The opening of the overland railway to ASEAN will eliminate the need for all goods to go to the port, enhancing the connection between the two countries.
This is the whole stall is scattered, and the ability to resist risks is also increasing.
But change will always make some people lose!
Do you think that downgrading consumption is just going to a cheaper place to buy something? Why not go to a cheaper city?
Looking at the occupancy rate of office buildings in Shenzhen now, everything is self-evident.
Or what I said before, the so-called dividends of the times, he is not eternal, the times will pass, the dividends will sometimes end, you have to think about it, what is the purpose of development?
Is it to gather the strength of the whole country to build a few big cities, and then let the big cities suck up all their vitality?
Obviously this is not possible.
I remember when I first arrived in Shenzhen, the central area was the hottest, before it was the core of Luohu City, and then slowly Nanshan was the king, and the front was lonely.
So why?
The reason is very simple, a place has been developed, and there is not much output from the input, it is not cost-effective, it is better to find a new place and start a new blueprint.
It will not go north to Guangzhou and Shenzhen forever, Beijing has a special status and is irreplaceable, and the rest must be weighed repeatedly, will it be so strong in the end?
Technological development will change a lot of things, and big cities are not as important as they used to be.
Ten years ago, I would never leave Shenzhen to go to a small city, but now I will, because the Internet allows me to enjoy most of the big cities here.
So, are you still clinging to the so-called core location, core real estate?
Now that housing prices in first-tier cities are declining, even the rent is not as good as before, and the reality is that there are not so many people who can afford to spend, either the price is reduced or empty, choose for yourself.
In the relationship between supply and demand, demand can really only be regarded as effective demand, and those who can afford it can be counted as customers, not heads.