yearsManufacturing PMI analysis for the month
China Logistics Information Center Wen Tao
The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics in January 2024 was 492%, up 02 percentage points, ending a three-month downward trend. The changes in the sub-index show that the domestic and foreign market demand in the manufacturing industry has stabilized and rebounded, the production activities of enterprises have accelerated their growth, and the four major industries and large and medium-sized enterprises have stabilized in a coordinated manner. Overall, the economy will get off to a steady start in 2024.
First, domestic and foreign market demand has stabilized and rebounded. In January, driven by the advantages of China's super-large-scale market and the expansion of demand policies, China's manufacturing market demand stabilized and rebounded, and the new orders index was 49%, an increase of 03 percentage points. Among them, the more prominent is the consumer goods manufacturing industry, driven by the holiday consumption and Spring Festival consumption expectations, the consumer goods market demand is released quickly. At the same time, many places actively grasp the project, and the market demand for basic raw materials has stabilized. Foreign market demand has also stabilized and improved, with the new export orders index at 472%, up 14 percentage points, mainly due to the recent rapid growth of foreign demand for China's ships, automobiles, basic raw materials and computer communication electronic equipment, driving the equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing industry and basic raw materials industry exports have been significantly improved. In combination, the domestic and foreign market demand in the manufacturing industry stabilized and rebounded in January, and the economic operation momentum was strengthened.
Second, the growth of enterprise production activities has accelerated。In January, as the market demand stabilized and rebounded, and at the same time, the willingness of enterprises to increase the inventory of finished products for future sales and exports rose, driving the growth of manufacturing production activities to accelerate, and the production index was 513%, up 1. from the previous month1 percentage point, running in the expansion range for 8 consecutive months, indicating that production activities continued to maintain reasonable growth. It is worth noting that the production index of the four major industries all increased from the previous month, among which the production activities of new drivers and consumer goods accelerated steadily, and the production of basic raw materials stabilized. The finished goods inventory index was 494%, up 16 percentage points, the increase is more obvious, indicating that the inventory of finished products in the manufacturing industry has stabilized and rebounded. The more prominent are the high-tech manufacturing industry and the consumer goods manufacturing industry, and the finished goods inventory index of both industries has risen to the expansion range, indicating that these two industries are more optimistic about the future sales, and the finished goods inventory has increased significantly.
Third, the universality of economic stabilization is relatively good. From the perspective of industries, the four major industries have signs of stabilization and improvement. The new momentum continued to grow steadily since the fourth quarter of 2023, and the PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry was 501%, although it decreased slightly by 01 percentage point, but it still remained in the expansion range for 5 consecutive months. The high-tech manufacturing PMI was 511%, up 08 percentage points, the growth of high-tech manufacturing has accelerated. The consumer goods manufacturing PMI was 501%, up 07 percentage points, indicating that the manufacturing of consumer goods increased from the previous month. The PMI of the basic raw materials industry was 476%, up 02 percentage points, rising for 2 consecutive months, and the industry is showing a stable operation trend. From the perspective of enterprises of different sizes, large enterprises have increased steadily, and the PMI of large enterprises is 504%, up 04 percentage points, both ends of supply and demand accelerated growth compared with the previous month; The operation of medium-sized enterprises has stabilized, and the PMI of medium-sized enterprises is 489%, up 02 percentage points, of which the production index increased by more than 2 percentage points from the previous month; The PMI for small businesses is 472%, although it decreased slightly by 01 percentage point, but both the production index and the employment index increased from the previous month, indicating that the production and employment activities of small enterprises have a stable basis. In combination, the generality of China's economic stabilization in January was good, and the four major industries and large, medium and small enterprises were linked to stabilize their operation.
On the whole, in January 2024, China's economy has achieved a stable start, production activities have continued to grow reasonably, industrial linkage has been running well, and the vitality of enterprises is also improving. However, at present, there is also the problem of short-term decline in raw materials and tightening of raw material inventory, which is the reason why market demand is still weak. According to the enterprise survey, the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand is 599%, although it decreased by 08 percentage points, still at a high level. At present, we should continue to deepen the implementation of various policies to stabilize the economy, promote growth and expand demand, and at the same time actively optimize the business environment in various places, fully release economic vitality, and lay a solid foundation for the next stable and good economic operation.