After the continuous downward adjustment of corn in Northeast China, the market in the short-term grain pressure release and good policy news, the supply and demand pattern has been corrected, and the purchase of Beigang at the beginning of the week was slightly lower, driving a small number of deep processing enterprises to purchase 20-30 yuan tons. Judging from the market fundamental data, the market is potentially loose, and the corn market is difficult to trend higher, but the policy news has increased, and large grain trade enterprises have also taken storage actions, which reflects the bottom of the market to a certain extent.
1. Recent market news and dynamics.
According to market news, China Grain Reserves has formulated a 4.5 million tons of corn storage increase plan in Northeast China, mainly including 1.5 million tons in Jilin, 1.2 million tons in Liaoning, 1.5 million tons in Heilongjiang, and 300,000 tons in Inner Mongolia. This week, the auction of imported corn began to be stopped, and in addition, the acquisition of storage points by central enterprises in Northeast China increased in the second half of the year, and the listing **conformed to the market**.
2. Beigang port collection volume and ** trend.
Judging from the trend of Beigang, the second-class grain purchase at the port fell to 2350-2370 yuan tons in mid-December. Market operators are not sure about the bottom of corn, anchoring from wheat, to sprout wheat, imported sorghum, corn flour, and even the cost of imported corn within the quota, so that the market is expected to be low from 2,400 yuan tons in Beigang to 2,000 yuan tons.
On December 21, with the grain depots in Heilongjiang Daqing, Qiqihar, Qitaihe, Changchun and other places listed for the purchase of policy corn, Daqing area listed for the purchase of **2480 yuan tons, and the purchase of additional reserves, the suspension of imported corn auctions and other news, the market bearish atmosphere has eased.
Through the recent market situation and the relationship between corn and other grains, the current corn has fallen below the planting cost of large-scale planting in Northeast China, and compared with wheat, sprout wheat, imported sorghum, imported wheat has an advantage, and the price difference between corn flour has narrowed to 60-80 yuan tons, and corn flour is supported by costs, and the space for downward adjustment is limited, and feed companies have increased their intentions to purchase and use corn in domestic trade. According to the data of the China Feed Industry Association, the amount of compound feed corn produced by the sample feed enterprises accounted for 31 in November 20233%, an increase of 130%。
3. The psychological expectations of the market are revised.
Recently, the imbalance between supply and demand in the market has gradually repaired, and the corn has stabilized, and it is expected that the current large-scale main body of the market is expected to be 2400 yuan tons in Beigang, 2150-2250 yuan tons in Heilongjiang, and 2250-2350 yuan tons in Jilin. However, at present, there is still surplus grain at the grassroots level, and the probability of postponing the release of selling pressure to the Spring Festival is large, and the bumper yield expands the volume of surplus grain.