(This article was first published on Knowledge Planet on January 6).
Let's talk about "fast and good" today.
In fact, last night's draft was a bit rushed, so although the big logical framework has been set up, some arguments may still be understood by some friends.
Therefore, in the next few articles, I will make a detailed deduction and argument for the key points under the overall logical framework, and those who have other questions can also leave a message in the comment area, and I will explain it to you in detail.
And today's article is mainly about:"Fast and good".Why does ZZ's bankruptcy liquidation reflect the management's "fast and good" attitude?And what is the representation of the general idea of "fast and good" in specific events?Why is it impossible to say that "it's not good to be fast" or "it's not fast"?
In fact, the idea of "fast and good", which I also mentioned in a previous article, was mainly aimed at trust products at that time.
But I didn't expect it to be fulfilled in zz yesterday, and the attitude of the management may be more anxious than I evaluated, which is good for ordinary investors.
As for those low-cognitive people who think that ZZ announced bankruptcy liquidation in order to cut leeks and rely on your investment funds, I personally choose to ignore them, after all, dozens of people are still explaining the problem in the number, how can this matter be relied on by bankruptcy liquidation to rely on your investment funds?
You can't see that they haven't been released?Or do you not understand the law?If you don't know the law, I can teach you, but I can't save you if you're blind, and you'll have to go to the hospital.
Bringing the topic back, let's talk about this "fast" first
In the previous article, I explained why the management should speed up the handling of these domestic financial events because of the grabbingThe "window period" for the suspension of the economic confrontation between the eagle and the rabbit.
In fact, many people are not very clear about this concept, and they always think that our country's economic policy should look at the face of other people's old beautyBut in fact, under the premise that the international division of labor is becoming more and more detailed, the United States, which controls the "hegemony of the dollar", can indeed do whatever it wants to a certain extent.
To give a simple example, why did Lao Mei dare to "send money" crazy during the epidemic?Because he can use the "dollar hegemony" to let the world help him bear the inflation caused by the over-issuance of the dollar.
In fact, at that time, many domestic industries were greatly promoted, remember the Shanghai Port to pull containers to the United States one by one?Remember the so-called "foreign trade carnival" at that time?
That's all the positive effects of the over-issuance of dollars.
But you always have to pay it back, and the boomerang that over-issued currency will have to be smashed back sooner or later.
In fact, as the two poles of the world economy, the United States controls the "financial hegemony", while we control the "manufacturing hegemony".
But Lao Mei was made by ** paranoia, and always felt that we wanted to replace him as the boss of the world one day in the future.
In fact, I can understand him thinking so, after all, Lao Mei also started by manufacturing back then, and finally killed the "Dai British Empire" through two wars and was crowned to the throne.
It is a national policy to restrain us and prevent us from developing, and it is a national policy for the United States to have a year and a half of fighting for trivial matters in their Congress, but on the issue of dealing with us, there is almost no need to discuss it, and it is directly voted on.
So what will Lao Mei do in **?
It must be finance, this process is actually very simple, Lao Mei places orders for domestic enterprises, do you want to take them?
You have to take it, you don't care if the money is printed, what you can see in front of you is this pouring wealth, at this time, if you don't take a basin and then it's a little rude?
Well, the order was kept, the goods were sent, and the final payment of the people arrived, and it looked like it was dollars.
Do you think these dollars will go straight into the market circulation?
Of course not, the money that comes in is called "foreign exchange appropriation", and the central mother must convert it into RMB in order to circulate in the domestic market, which is why we say that foreign trade is one of the three carriages that drive economic development, because these dollars that come in can really increase domestic liquidity.
This is in, but what about outflow?
If the central mother wants to withdraw these currencies, then objectively speaking, there will be less liquidity in society.
The Fed's violent interest rate hike will directly lead to the outflow of foreign exchange, after all, the risk-free interest rate has been given to 5%, and we have to consider the issue of income when we are optimistic about our funds.
Maybe it's not intuitive to say that, but I'll give you a few time points.
Masks began in December 19
March 20 The first round of quantitative easing begins
In August 20, three red lines were introduced
In September 20, Evergrande sold the house at a 7% discount
Sep 21 House prices peaked
In October 21, Evergrande thundered
The Fed raised interest rates in March '22
In August 23, the exchange was suspended
In fact, if you string these points in time, you will understand a lot of incomprehensible logic of evidence.
It is said that the three red lines strangled the real estate industry, but without these three red lines, the real estate industry will be allowed to grow savagely.
No more, as long as the house price is **30%, do you know how much of a problem Lao Mei will cause when the water is collected?
Therefore, those who say every day that the management does not understand the economy had better stop talking, because they cannot understand the macroeconomy with the logic of microeconomics.
This is like using the method of making steamed buns to make a Manchu and Han full feast, and it is also a alkaline smell when it is made.
A large part of our current economic problems are ** with the US dollar raising interest rates, as is often said"Dollar tide".
The lack of liquidity has led to a series of problems, which means that a company has been operating on loans, and one day the bank suddenly withdraws loans, and there is a high probability that he will not be able to operate.
But 24 years of ** has given us a very good respite.
Because the 24-year-old United States wants to be **, and Lao Deng wants to seek re-election, he must calm down the inflation in the old United States in a short period of time, and this is necessary for us to help, and it will be difficult for us to pass this hurdle if we don't help Lao Deng.
So don't look at Lao Deng's tone softening now, that's because this guy wants to seek re-election, if he can't be re-elected, he understands that the king will come up, and he can let his whole family step on the sewing machine.
For ordinary people, Lao Mei's ** is a show, but for Lao Deng, whether to become the first Lao Mei to die in prison is a very fatal question.
But as soon as the ** ends, it is estimated that the policy of the United States will return to the original level, and the interest rate hike is estimated to be impossible, but it should be very possible to make some other off-the-market moves.
Recently, the three major rating agencies have all begun to downgrade the ratings of domestic financial companies, and we don't know if someone is behind it.
During this time, we must not only stabilize the real estate and ensure that the property of the majority of the people in the country does not shrink on a large scale, but also control the scale of non-standard urban investment bonds, and effectively reduce the inherent risks, and re-establish the decline in confidence caused by the "dollar tide".
Any of these three is very difficult, but for now, it is relatively easy to solve the third one first.
The problem of real estate is that the supply is greater than the demand, strictly speaking, as long as the number of new starts can be controlled, it is possible to slowly exchange time for space, and the main idea is a "drag" word.
The problem of urban investment is to reduce the cost of debt in the form of national debt, and then slowly reduce the debt through inflation, and the main thing is to "extend".
What about the problems of small and medium-sized financial institutions?Neither of the above two items applies, whether it is delayed or delayed, in fact, it will inevitably hurt investors' confidence in the management institution, so the method adopted is "fast".
Because only by quickly solving the problem can we restore market confidence and re-establish the authority of the regulator in the shortest possible time, and the more this matter drags on, the bigger the problem will be.
In fact, whether it is the redemption plan of Chuanxin a few years ago, or the bankruptcy liquidation of ZZ this time, and the intensive voices of various ministries and commissions during this time, the attitude of the management is very clear.
It is to be fast, or not to leave the tail fast.
And not only fast but also good, in fact, there is no need to say too much about this matter.
The purpose of the management is to dismantle the mine, not to point the mine itself, some problems can be guaranteed, and if they can't be guaranteed, they should also let the customer have a clearer psychological expectation.
Therefore, "fast and good" is the current high-level handling of the problems of Zhongrong and other small and medium-sized financial institutions, and the effect of this strong medicine is completely related to whether the domestic economy can effectively recover this year.
Walk past, the sky is wide.
I can't go over, and it's estimated that it will take three years.
So, there are three answers that are almost 100% certain.
1."Zhongrong will not go bankrupt".
2."Zhongrong will not be found to be illegal".
3."Guaranteed Principal Redemption of Portfolio Products Suspended by Zhongrong".
It's fast and good, just wait and see.
(This article was first published on Knowledge Planet on January 6).