According to the forecast of the ** Meteorological Observatory, from January 31 to February 5, there will be a wide range of continuous rain, snow and freezing weather in the central and eastern regions, and 10 provinces will have heavy snowfall or heavy snowfall, and the snowfall in Yulu and Hubei is extreme. The meteorological department predicts that rain, snow and freezing weather will have a greater impact on transportation, agricultural production, energy supply and urban operation.
With the approach of the Lunar New Year, the steel spot market in various cities is more deserted, and businesses have been on holiday this week, coupled with the arrival of a large area of rain and snow weather across the country, many northern provinces have cooled down, affecting the outdoor construction progress, and putting pressure on the project progress that has been slowed down by workers on holiday, and the downstream terminal demand is getting weaker and weaker.
For the whole of 2023, iron ore production reached 321.2 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4., it was learned from Vale on January 303%, up from 31.5 billion tonnes of production guidance. In December 2023, iron ore reached its highest monthly output since 2018. In the fourth quarter of 2023, iron ore production reached 89.4 million tons, up 11% year-on-year.
China's iron ore is mainly in Australia and Brazil, from the data released by Brazilian Vale iron ore merchants, it can be seen that iron ore production increased month-on-month, with the peak of foreign iron ore shipments led to a month-on-month increase in domestic port arrivals, iron ore cost support has fallen slightly, bearish steel ** trend.
Last week (January 22-January 28), the total area of newly built commercial housing transactions (contracts) in 10 key cities was 195880,000 square meters, down 5 percent week-on-week4%。During the same period, the total area of second-hand housing transactions (contracts) in 10 key cities was 164190,000 square meters, down 2 percent week-on-week8%。
Although the macro policy has gradually shifted to supporting real estate after the ** economic work conference in July 2023, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the central bank and local cities have promoted real estate development by various means such as funds to liberalizing purchase restrictions and reducing personal loan interest rates.
Among the 24 markets for building materials, 2 markets fell 10-20 yuan tons, and the average rebar 20mmHRB400E was 4012 yuan tons, down 1 yuan ton from the previous trading day;
Among the 24 markets for hot coils, 2 markets fell 10-20 yuan tons, 4The average of 75 hot-rolled coils was 4108 yuan tons, down 1 yuan ton from the previous trading day;
In the 23 markets of medium and heavy plates, 1 market rose 30 yuan tons, 2 markets fell 10 yuan tons, and the average of 14-20mm medium plate was 4156 yuan tons, up 1 yuan ton from the previous trading day.
On the 30th, the main force of black rebar fell 60 to close at 3913, down 151%；The main force of hot coil fell 57 to close at 4044, down 139%；The main force of coking coal fell 395, closed at 1751, down 221%；The main force of coke fell 625, closed at 2398, down 254%；Iron ore rose 175, closed at 9795, up 176%。
Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, market merchants have successively issued holiday notices, coupled with strong pre-holiday capital hedging, most businesses have entered the Spring Festival collection link, spot trading volume "cliff-like" decline, resulting in a lack of momentum, while the macro and industrial supply and demand fundamentals have not formed a resonance, the market winter storage replenishment logic and cost support weakened, most of the market merchants do not close the warehouse, some areas with high inventory slightly adjust prices, it is expected that tomorrow's steel will run steadily in a fall, with a range of 10-20 yuan tons.