In 16 trading days, Wantai Bio's stock price rose by more than 80%. Then, from January 9, 2024, the stock showed a unilateral** trend.
Punctuation financial researcher Xi Yu.
After rapid growth in recent years, Wantai Bio's performance has come to a turning point in 2023.
On January 23, the company announced that it is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 1.2 billion yuan - 13500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7466% to 7149%。
In this regard, Wantai Bio gave three reasons: first, affected by factors such as the expansion of the nine-valent cervical cancer vaccine and market competition, the company's bivalent cervical cancer vaccine sales are less than expected, and it is expected that the revenue of bivalent cervical cancer vaccine in 2023 will decrease by about 4.2 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Second, due to the precipitous decline in the demand for new crown testing at home and abroad in 2023, the revenue related to new crown diagnosis decreased by about 1.2 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Third, the impairment of assets such as R&D investment, special raw materials and finished products, and special production equipment related to the new crown vaccine will affect the company's overall profit decline by more than 400 million yuan.
In the past month, the stock price trend of Wantai Biotech has also experienced a "roller coaster" like the performance in the past five years**In 16 trading days from December 15, 2023 to January 8, 2024, the stock price has risen by more than 80%, and then since January 9, 2024, the stock has shown a unilateral ** trend.
Within a month, the stock price trend of Wantai Biotech rose first and then declined, or reflected the cruel reality behind the current involution of China's HPV (human papillomavirus) vaccine industry.
Wantai Biotech's stock price trend in the past two months(Yuan shares).
Data**: wind
Behind the soaring performance
Founded in 1991, Wantai Biotech is mainly engaged in the research and development and production of biological diagnostic reagents and vaccines, the company has seven subsidiaries, and its products cover enzyme immunization, colloidal gold, chemiluminescence, nucleic acid detection, biochemistry, vaccines and quality control products.
Punctuation financial researchers noticed that after the listing in 2020, Wantai Bio's performance ushered in a period of rapid growth. According to the financial report, the company's operating income increased from 118.4 billion yuan soared to 111 in 20229 billion yuan, and the net profit in the same period also increased from 20.9 billion yuan soared to 473.6 billion yuan.
The driving force behind it comes from the expansion of the market demand for HPV vaccines. According to the PMC and ScienceDirect literature, the incidence of cervical cancer in women in China has shown an upward trend in recent years, from 1198 100,000 people rose to 17 in 201669 100,000 people.
Studies have found that more than 99% of cervical cancer cases in the world are caused by HPV, but unlike other diseases, cervical cancer is currently the only malignant tumor that is clear, early preventable and, and achievable. In 2020, the WHO officially launched the "Global Strategy to Accelerate the Elimination of Cervical Cancer", and in 2021, the National Health Commission plans to launch pilot work in 15 cities to promote cervical cancer vaccination.
According to the OECD database, the female population aged 9-45 in China in 2021 will be about 32.2 billion people, according to the three-shot vaccination program, the cumulative penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China in 2021 is 699%。According to the analysis of industry insiders, with the improvement of residents' awareness of HPV vaccine and the promotion of national policies, the penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China is expected to further increase, which is expected to reach 30%, and there is still room for several times improvement.
Under the improvement of the industry, Wantai Biotechnology seized the opportunity. The bivalent HPV vaccine product "Cecolin" developed by the company was approved by the National Medical Products Administration on December 30, 2019 and obtained drug registration approval, and was officially launched for sale in 2020.
It has been pointed out that for the vaccine development industry, breakthroughs in R&D projects often lead to geometric growth. At the beginning of December 2023, Wantai Biotech said during the investigation that the phase III clinical trial of the company's nine-valent HPV vaccine is underway, and the on-site work of the eighth visit has been completed in November 2023, and the specimen testing work is being carried out; The production workshop is undergoing commercial-scale production process validation, and the company will do its best to promote the marketing process of the 9-valent HPV vaccine.
This news also activated the enthusiasm of the market, and since December 15, 2023, the share price of Wantai Biotech has increased by 82 in 16 trading days24%。However, the good times were short-lived. At the beginning of January 2024, the announcement of news stopped the momentum of its stock price to continue to grow.
Competition has intensified
On January 9, Merck announced that its nine-valent HPV vaccine (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) "Jiada Xiu 9" has been approved by China's National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for the second dose of its 9-valent HPV vaccine (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) for women aged 9-14. This approval means that on the basis of the previous three-dose vaccination program for 9-45 year olds, Jiada Xiu 9 will add a two-dose vaccination program for 9-14 year olds. The industry believes that this may be a disguised price reduction taken by Merck in order to enhance the competitiveness of the industry.
This is exactly the same wave of price cuts that Tesla has set off in 2023. It is obvious to all that under the catfish effect caused by Tesla, a number of domestic new energy vehicles have announced price cuts, and the new energy vehicle market has officially entered the "era of melee".
In the HPV vaccine industry, Merck has already launched a layout.
According to Punctuation Finance researchers, the age expansion of the imported nine-valent HPV vaccine "Jiadaxiu 9" will start on August 30, 2022. At that time, Merck announced that the vaccine was approved by the China Food and Drug Administration to expand to women aged 9-45 years. Previously, the vaccine was available to people between the ages of 16 and 26.
This change is not only hit by Wantai Biotechnology, but also similar companies such as Walvax Biotechnology. Walvax said in an interview that with the expansion of imported 9-valent HPV vaccine products to 45 years old, the market over 30 years old will gradually be replaced by 9-valent HPV vaccine.
In this context, the expansion of Merck's 9-valent HPV vaccine has wiped out the dislocation of the competitive advantage of the domestic 2-valent HPV vaccine sales group, and the direct impact of this is a sharp decline in performance.
According to the financial report, from the first quarter to the third quarter of 2023, Wantai Bio's operating income declined year-on-year. 71% and 7040%；Net profit declined year-on-year. 41% and 9153%。Previously, a number of brokerages had pointed out in their quarterly report comments that the sales of bivalent HPV vaccine, as the core product of Wantai Biological Company, may be under pressure.
According to the statistics of Flush data, as of September 30, 2023, among the 13 listed vaccine companies, Wantai Bio's net profit ranked third. From this point of view, the decline in the company's performance may not be unique in the industry.
It is worth noting that Merck is not the only reason for the threat to the domestic HPV industry. The involution reality of domestic bivalent HPV vaccines is even more cruel. It is reported that in addition to Wantai Biologics, the research and development progress of nine-valent HPV vaccines, including Ruike Biotechnology, Kangle Guard, Shanghai Bowei and other companies has also entered the clinical stage. An industry insider told Punctuation Finance researchers that with the successive approvals of HPV vaccines under development, the competition among companies in capacity expansion will further intensify.
The performance of Wantai Bio in the first three quarters of 2023.
Data**: Straight flush.
The general manager resigned
Perhaps because the performance was less than expected, Wantai Biotech recently changed the general manager.
On the evening of January 15, Wantai Biotech announced that Qiu Zixin resigned as general manager. It is understood that Qiu Zixin has been working in Wantai Biotechnology since 1997, and has served as director and general manager. Jiang Zhiming, who took over the position of general manager of the company, was deeply involved in the field of in vitro diagnostics, which was also the pillar business of Wantai Bio before.
Some analysts believe that in the case of weak short-term sales, Wantai Bio may consider transformation. This is not a guesswork. In the research activities in October 2023, Wantai Biotech said that in order to avoid potential competition in the same industry, the company and Yangshengtang have defined and divided the business scope in the biomedical field: the company is engaged in the R&D and industrialization of products for the purpose of disease diagnosis and disease prevention, and Yangshengtang is engaged in the R&D and industrialization of products for the purpose of disease. Wantai Biotech focuses on the business field of in vitro diagnostic reagents and preventive products, and the most innovative drugs belong to the business scope of Yangshengtang Group. However, it is not excluded that the possibility of incorporating the ** sector into the listed company at the right time and in the future is the right time.
As of September 30, 2023, Yangshengtang held 5553% equity. As an investment company focusing on the field of health, Yangshengtang has strong financial strength, management ability and anti-risk ability, and its main investment directions are drinking water, health care and health food, biomedicine, planting, etc.
Industry analysts believe that for biopharmaceutical companies, in addition to capital investment, the test behind business transformation is the company's technical strength, R&D strength and clinical resources. Standing at the current node, Wantai Biotech under the pressure of performance may have been forced to come to the crossroads of transformation.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the shareholding of the top ten circulating shareholders of Wantai Biotech.
Data**: Oriental Fortune Network.