At the end of 2023, the new energy field ushered in another blockbuster news.
On December 29, led by China National Nuclear Corporation, 25 central enterprises, scientific research institutes and universities formed a controllable nuclear fusion innovation consortium to officially unveil the original technology of China's fusion energy.
Previously, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) launched the implementation of the Future Industry Sailing Action, and controllable nuclear fusion is regarded as the only direction of future energy. In addition, the "Chinese artificial sun" set a new operating record during the year, and four electric nuclear units were approved at the end of the year, and the capital market was moved, and the nuclear power industry chain once again became a capital outlet.
Nuclear power restarts. In March 2011, the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, the world's largest active nuclear power plant at the time, was affected by the tsunami that caused a nuclear leak. Japan has classified the accident as a magnitude 7 (mega accident), which is the same level as the Chernobyl nuclear accident.
For a time, the world was shocked and "talked about nuclear color change". All countries have tightened the pace of audits of nuclear power units.
After the Fukushima nuclear accident, China carried out a nuclear power safety inspection for a year and a half, and although it came to the conclusion that safety was guaranteed, it decided not to start a new nuclear power project. The Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for Nuclear Power (2011-2020) issued that year pointed out thatNew nuclear power projects must comply with the safety standards for third-generation nuclear power.
In the shadow of nuclear accidents, the pressure of nuclear power, and the fact that the third-generation technology has not yet fully matured, from 2011 to 2018, China's nuclear power approval as a whole showed a state of contraction, and many years have not been approved.
2015 is special, it is the final year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", 8 units were approved, some of which are second-generation + units that have invested a lot of resources in the early stage;The other type is the third-generation nuclear power Hualong No. 1, China Nuclear Power has been approved 2 Hualong No. 1, and China General Nuclear Power is also 2 Hualong No. 1, both of which are the first Hualong No. 1 of the two major nuclear power groups.
With the increasing maturity of the third-generation technology and the in-depth implementation of the dual carbon strategyChina's nuclear power was restarted in 2019, and new units were approved from 2019 to 2023 with 4, 4, 5, 10, and 10 units, respectively, and the pace of approval has been significantly accelerated
In particular, it was pointed out in the 2021 ** Work ReportUnder the premise of ensuring safety, the active and orderly development of nuclear power is the first time that the word "active" is used in the ** reportThe 14th Five-Year Plan also clearly proposes to actively and orderly develop the construction of third-generation nuclear power plants along the coast.
In the context of the dual carbon goal, combined with the problem of power shortage in recent years, the nuclear power audit will continue to improve, and it is expected that 8-10 units will be approved per year in the next few years.
In the three generations of technology, the localization rate of CAP1000 has exceeded 85%, and the localization rate of Hualong No. 1 is as high as more than 90%, according to the investment of a single nuclear power unit of about 180-20 billion yuan, the newly approved 10 units will create a market "cake" of about 1800-200 billion yuan.
In addition to nuclear power construction and nuclear power operation, the value of nuclear power equipment accounts for half, and the equipment market increases by about 900-100 billion yuan.
At present, several major nuclear power countries are competing for the fourth generation of nuclear power technology, and China's high-temperature gas-cooled reactors are at the world's advanced level. In 2023On December 6, the world's first nuclear power plant, Shandong Rongcheng Shidaowan high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plant, has been officially put into commercial operation, marking China's leading fourth-generation nuclear power technology.
In the nuclear power sector, state-owned enterprises occupy the lion's share, but private enterprises have a competitive advantage in the market segment. Therefore, from the perspective of secondary market investment, in addition to several major nuclear power groups, private segment leaders are also worth paying attention to.
The huge incremental cake brought about by the restart of nuclear power is the core foundation for the thickening performance of nuclear power stocks and the stock price.
The ultimate energy source. When fossil energy is facing the challenge of increasing depletion, new energy sources such as photovoltaics, wind power, and lithium batteries have risen, but careful analysis shows that these energy sources are not the ultimate energy, nor are they clean energy in the strict sense of the whole industry chain.
For example, photovoltaic silicon is a high-energy-consuming industry, and the cost of electricity accounts for the majority of silicon production. In the summer of 2022, Sichuan, a major hydropower province, announced power rationing, and Tongwei and other enterprises were affected. Lithium mining, lithium battery manufacturing and even downstream links may cause environmental pollution.
Nuclear fusion, on the other hand, is regarded as the ultimate energy source due to its abundant fuel, clean energy, high safety, and high energy density. In contrast to nuclear fission, nuclear fusion is the energy released by the nucleus of an atom when it transforms into another nucleus.
The sun shines and heats through the principle of nuclear fusion. And the main raw material for fusion is the isotope of hydrogen, namely "deuterium and tritium". These materials are not only cheap but also abundant on Earth, with more than 45 trillion tons of tritium in seawater, which can be used by humans for hundreds of millions of years.
Moreover, compared to the "nuclear fission" used in nuclear power plants, nuclear fusion is four times the energy produced by nuclear fission reactions, and the equivalent of 300 liters of gasoline can be produced for every liter of fusion in seawater.
In addition, because the environment produced by nuclear fusion is very harsh, there is no risk of runaway reactions and meltdowns, and no carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases are emitted. Therefore, it is inherently safe, efficient and clean.
Currently,The biggest difficulty in nuclear fusion is that it is "controllable". One is to have enough high temperatures for the fuel to turn into plasma over 100 million degrees Celsius;The second is a certain density;The third is a certain energy constraint time.
As a result, nuclear fusion is extremely demanding and must be able to withstand high temperatures, high pressures, abrasion, and other harsh conditions.
After years of exploration, magnetic confinement fusion is seen as a more feasible path, and its implementation includes tokamaks and stellarators. At present, the tokamak is the most investment, the closest to the conditions of nuclear fusion, and the most mature way for technological development in the world. Our country is one of them.
The development plan of China's nuclear energy is currently to optimize the independent third-generation technology, and the medium and long-term is to develop first-class nuclear energy technology, and the long-term goal is fusion technology. Since the 90s of the last century, China has built and operated Hefei superring (HT-7), China Circulator No. 2 (HL-2A) and Oriental superring (East) and other devices.
On August 25 last year, China's new generation of artificial solar "Gyre-3" achieved high-confinement operation under 1 million amperes of plasma current for the first time, once again setting a new operating record, marking that China's magnetic confinement nuclear fusion leads the world.
At the commercial level, as early as 1983, China proposed a three-step development strategy of "thermal reactor-fast reactor-fusion reactor" for nuclear energy. At present, it is still dominated by "thermal reactors", which is also the development path of nuclear energy in the next many years.
But looking to the future, nuclear fusion is the key to seizing the ultimate energy commanding heights. According to the plan, China plans to achieve controlled nuclear fusion in 2030, and after 20 years of efforts, a fusion commercial reactor will be built as early as 2050.
For companies in the secondary market, nuclear power is still the main performance**, and nuclear fusion is a potentially huge increase in the future.
Who benefits the most?The nuclear fusion industry chain can be roughly divided into upstream raw materials, midstream equipment and device materials, and downstream nuclear power construction and operation.
The overall construction and operation of the downstream are basically contracted by large state-owned enterprises, while the upstream and midstream are divided into many private listed enterprises. Among them, high-temperature superconducting materials are the most noteworthy.
Superconducting magnet + deflector" is a key component of the tokamak, which,Superconducting magnets account for almost half of the total cost. The promotion of controlled nuclear fusion experiments, demonstrations, and commercialization will drive the increase in demand for superconducting magnets.
The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is another major scientific project in the world after the International Space Station.
China undertakes 69% of the NBTI superconducting wire and 7% of the NB3SN superconducting wire production tasks, all of which are provided by Western Superconductor, which was delivered in 2019. The company's nuclear fusion uses high-performance NB3SN superconducting wire to break the foreign ridge.
The company is the only commercial manufacturer of low-temperature superconducting wires in China, there are no competitors in China, competitors are from abroad, and Western Superconductor is also the world's only full-process manufacturer of niobium titanium ingot rods, superconducting wires and superconducting magnets.
On the basis of the ITER project, China proposed the China Fusion Engineering Experimental Reactor (CFETR) project, which is planned to be completed in 2035 and a commercial reactor in 2050.
The deflector developed by Guoguang Electric has been applied to some tokamak devices, and it is the first company in the world to develop hot helium leak detection equipment that meets the requirements of ITER. It also undertook the research and development task of the "advanced deflector" project of China National Nuclear Corporation, which needs to complete the production and manufacturing of 60 sets of deflectors, with a contract fund of 14 million yuan.
Lianchuang Superconductor, a subsidiary of Lianchuang Optoelectronics, is responsible for providing high-temperature superconducting magnet systems and low-temperature refrigeration systems in nuclear fusion host devices, and is also one of the few comprehensive providers in the world that can provide high-temperature superconducting magnets. In September 2023, Lianchuang Superconductor made a breakthrough in the R&D and manufacturing of 100-meter-level cluster cables for nuclear fusion superconducting magnet applications, reflecting the company's strength in this field.
Jingda shares hold 18With 29% of the shares, Shanghai Superconductor is the largest shareholder of the latter, providing high-performance high-temperature superconducting strips for the controlled nuclear fusion projects of CFS in the United States and TE in the United Kingdom
In addition, there are the second-generation high-temperature superconducting strip and its application equipment of Etern Co., Ltd., and Focuslight Technology, a semiconductor laser component provider for the national inertial confinement controllable nuclear fusion project.
It should be pointed out that the success and commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion will take a long time, and the performance contribution of the above-mentioned companies needs to be screened.
Only the currently approved nuclear power units can really bring performance contribution. For example, Jiangsu Shentong, which is mainly engaged in special special valves, and Jiadian Co., Ltd., which is the main helium fan of core equipment.
Taking Jiadian as an example, it is in a leading position in the field of nuclear power special motors, and has won the bid every year in recent years. In November 2021, the company announced an investment of 27.3 billion yuan to build a complete set of main helium fan project, after completion can achieve an annual output of 6 sets of main helium fan. In December of that year, two main helium fans were delivered to the Shidaowan Nuclear Power Plant.
The performance is also reflected, Jiadian shares in the first three quarters of 2023 to achieve revenue of 303.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%;Net profit 28.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1811%。
On the path to exploring the ultimate energy source, our country is already in a leading position. However, in the face of the current sluggish capital market, the outbreak of nuclear power stocks still requires investors to think and screen in many aspects.
The author of this article |Lonely City **Talent Magazine.
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