After the fertility induction failed, parents supported this "new plan"?
In the traditional concept, having more children and more blessings leads to a thriving family, so in the past, many people would rather risk being fined and not being promoted to have children. However, in the past five years, the number of births has been declining year after year, and the number of newborns has dropped from 1,700 in 2017 to 15 million in 2018, 14 million in 2019, 12 million in 2020, 10 million in 2021, and 9 million in 2022 and 2023.
A decrease of 1 million to 2 million inhabitants per year is actually a line sloping to the right. This data on the number of births has finally brought China's total population into an era of negative growth, with the number of births falling below the number of deaths every year, which means that the total population will be smaller and smaller in the future.
How serious is the situation? Perhaps we do not have an intuitive impression, so we can make a comparison in two ways:
On the one hand, comparing the birth population data since the founding of the People's Republic of China, even in the three years from 1960 to 1962, when natural disasters were frequent, there were an average of more than 15 million newborns per year. Not to mention, between 1963-1975 and 1981-1997, there were more than 20 million births per year, a cumulative 30-year period. It can be said that the foundation of our current population of 1.4 billion is mainly laid by these two birth peaks. Now, less than half of what is born each year is what it used to be, and anyone knows what that means.
Second, compared with developed countries. The data shows that the world average fertility rate is 169 and 9 in the EU2, 10 in North America9 , and what is the birth rate in our country? 6.3‰。Many people have always thought that the fertility rate in developed countries is very low, but they did not expect that we are now lower than others, and it is ridiculously low. Ten provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Chongqing, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin, have lower fertility rates than Japan.
On the other hand, the total fertility rate (the ratio of the number of births to the number of women of childbearing age), which is considered internationally as an indicator for monitoring population replacement, has fallen to 105, which is only 2Half of 1. This means that if the current birth rate continues, the total population of our country will continue to spiral.
The consequences of depopulation are clear. To a large extent, the inability to keep up with the talents and labor force needed for the country's development will inevitably have a far-reaching impact on China's industrial, scientific, technological, and economic development. Without people, it is impossible to create more wealth, and even the original related facilities and equipment will be idle and wasted, and the impact is even more comprehensive.
For example, there is a disclosure that some hospitals in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangxi and other places announced the cancellation of obstetric business. Even in the obstetrics department of the continuous operation of the hospital, their life is not easy, some friends will say that their obstetrics, neonatology, and pediatric hospitals are no longer good, and the hospitals are at the bottom.
For example, what we are most aware of now is the diversion of some kindergarten and primary school teachers, which will inevitably affect secondary schools and universities in the future. In other words, the decline in the birth rate will affect not only the future of the country, but also the existing industries related to the population, affecting their employment and income. Ultimately affecting consumption and economic development. Don't think that the smaller the population, the more resources are consumed, and in fact this is a detriment to everyone's well-being.
Seeing this, many people can't help but ask a question that touches the soul: in the past, I took all kinds of risks to rush to live, but now I am being shouted to live, why not give birth? In fact, the reason is not difficult to find: according to industry insiders, there are no more than two major reasons, one is the high housing price, and the other is the high cost of parenting.
On the issue of housing. After the liberalization of the two-child and three-child policies, the number of births has decreased instead of increasing, in fact, the state has realized this problem and has begun to take specific measures. This work began last year, in April, July and October, respectively, and the three major projects of affordable housing planning and construction were repeatedly mentioned. In December, the ** Economic Work Conference was put forward again"Speed up the planning and construction of three major projects such as affordable housing", the work at the national level has been mentioned four times in the mouth of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development:
Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, previously said that the promotion of affordable housing will be accelerated"Three major projects"Construction is an important decision made by the first company and an important measure launched based on the real estate market under the new situation.
We can see that speeding up the construction of affordable housing has risen to a national strategy. Many people may not understand: now that the property market is so sluggish, why should we speed up the construction of affordable housing? In fact, this does not reflect the importance that the state attaches to this work, and shows strong determination. Why is the state in a hurry to speed up the construction of affordable housing? If you look at the official statement, you will probably know:
Party committees and cities must assume the primary responsibility for solving the people's housing problem, especially the housing problem of new citizens and young people, so that they can liberate themselves and strive for a better life. Only when young people have hope can cities have a future.
New citizens, new youth, migrant workers, etc., are the main force of China's birth population, and solving their housing problems has solved at least half of the worries of the birth population. Of course, under the command of various departments, the state also acted very quickly, the central bank restarted the PSL at the end of December last year, and invested 350 billion yuan for the construction of three major projects of affordable housing, and continued to invest 150 billion yuan in January. You know, this PSL was only established in 2015-2018 for the monetization of slum upgrading, and now it has been launched again, which shows how important it is.
In addition, in response to a nationwide appeal, localities have begun to act quickly.
According to public information, Guangzhou City is in"14th Five-Year Plan"During this period, it was proposed to build 600,000 units of affordable housing. According to the Economic Observer, as of the end of January, 19 cities have announced their 2024 affordable housing plans, with more than 100,000 units, and many more are announcing their 2024 affordable housing plans.
Considering the urgency of the problem, some places have started the renovation of existing houses, such as Qingdao at the beginning of the first batch of 2,319 commercial housing as affordable housing, Chongqing one-time acquisition of 7 commercial housing projects a total of 4,207 **, Guangzhou will be 4 commercial housing projects for sale into affordable housing, Nanjing will be 2,500 sets of stock housing into affordable housing, Taicang and other places have also made it clear that they want to transform stock housing into affordable housing. 207 suites; Guangzhou included 4 commercial housing projects in the sale of affordable housing; Nanjing converted 2,500 units of stock housing into affordable housing; Taicang and other places have made it clear that they will evaluate the acquisition of small-sized commercial houses as affordable housing.
The Department of Housing and Construction said at a recent conference on affordable housing construction that this is not just a 2024 thing:
All localities should understand the situation of system construction and introduce local implementation opinions and supporting measures as soon as possible. It is necessary to do a good job in the implementation of the project, reverse the construction period and suspend the operation of the first batch of confirmed projects, so as to ensure that the construction starts on time and is delivered on schedule. It is necessary to do a good job in the preparation of the second batch of projects and speed up their formation"Implement a batch, book a batch, and plan a batch"The project rolling mechanism continues to do a good job in project planning and scheduling.
In short, the construction of affordable housing should continue to increase**. As an important measure to promote the growth of the new population, the national affordable housing will obviously remain the best for a long time.
Of course, in the face of the fertility crisis, a think tank that has long studied population policy has also given a proposal, a new one"scenario"Won the support of parents.
According to the Economic Observer, on February 21, Liang Jianzhang's team released the "China Fertility Cost Report 2024 Edition", which is more informative, and the report actually focuses more on the other fertility issue mentioned above - the cost of childbirth. Here are two excerpts of information of interest:
The average cost of educating a child between the ages of 1 and 17 is $5380,000 yuan, 660,000 yuan, 520,000 yuan and 390,000 yuan for educating one, two and three children in urban areas, and 460,000 yuan, 360,000 yuan and 270,000 yuan respectively in rural areas;
2.Nine policy recommendations have been implemented, including monetary and tax subsidies, subsidies for housing purchases, increasing or decreasing the number of nurseries, granting equal parental leave for men and women, admitting foreign workers, including nannies, promoting flexible office work, and guaranteeing the reproductive rights of single women.
I have to say that according to the calculation of Liang Jianzhang's team, the cost of children's education is indeed very high, Shanghai has reached 1.01 million, even in rural areas, it takes three and a half million to educate a child to the age of 17. No wonder some people say that having a child basically costs half a house, and if you give birth to a boy and prepare a house, the cost is even higher.
In addition, the cost of parenthood also includes opportunity cost and time cost, and Liang Jianzhang believes that institutional and financial support should be provided, such as introducing low-cost foreign labor, promoting flexible office, and protecting women's reproductive rights. In terms of financial support, Liang Jianzhang provides a monthly subsidy of 1,000 euros for 2 children and 2,000 euros for 3 children, while in terms of personal income tax and social security, families with 2 and 3 children are exempt from half and full taxes, respectively.
At the same time, housing subsidies will be issued on the basis of national affordable housing. Liang Jianzhang's team proposed that families with 2 children and 3 children will be refunded 50% and all mortgage interest respectively. In cities with high house prices, 10% discount for 1 child, 70% discount for 2 children, and 50% discount for 3 children.
According to the calculations of Leung Chun-ying's team, the three major measures of cash subsidy, mortgage interest refund + house purchase subsidy and the introduction of foreign labor can increase the birth rate by % and 2% respectively, that is, 4.2 million children per year on the existing basis.
So, how can we realize the subsidy problem that people care about most? For example, for the subsidy for buying a house, Liang Jianzhang's team believes that it can be solved by increasing the amount of land in large cities and areas where people have flowed in. As for other subsidies, the team has previously calculated that as long as 4% of GDP is used, or 5 billion yuan in state tax revenues, it can be achieved.
It is undeniable that the Hon Leung's proposal is more in line with the thinking of many people. The fundamental problem of the birth rate is still the problem of money: if you have money, you will naturally have more children, and you will naturally have more children. It may sound like a lot of money, but as I said earlier, it's not just a matter of having more money and less money, but it's about driving the development of related industries, creating jobs, and, far put, creating a solid labor base for the country's long-term development.