On February 1, the three major A-share stock indexes were mixed, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 064% to close at 2770At 74 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 034% to close at 8240At 48 points, the GEM index rose 1% to close at 158904 o'clock. January 2024 has passed, A-shares are still "falling endlessly", the 3,000-point defense battle has become a "look-up", and the 2,800-point position has been lost.
No wonder there is a popular joke recently, no matter what sins you made in your last life, as long as you speculate in A shares in this life, you will pay it off. So, is there any hope for China this year?
Last week, Goldman Sachs' head of global trading strategy said that the United States will start cutting interest rates this year, and the European and British central banks will follow suit, suggesting that investors look for opportunities in emerging markets. He added that China is going to have a good year and will surprise everyone, recommending long A-shares through options.
Goldman Sachs expects potential returns of 18% for MSCI China and 19% for the CSI 300 in 2024, assuming effective policy adoption and expected real GDP growth of about 5%, EPS growth of about 10% and a modest recovery in valuations.
Goldman Sachs' opinion is representative.
The Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates this year, and the dollar circulation will turn from cold to hot, and global assets will usher in a recovery cycle.
UBS**'s China** strategist said, "The worst of A-shares has passed, and we are starting to turn optimistic." In 2024, the earnings growth rate of the CSI 300A-share benchmark index will be about 8%, higher than the 2%-3% growth in 2023.
Nomura Orient International believes that the current market has fully priced in the downward pressure on fundamentals, and the further introduction of stable growth policies in the future is expected to bring more upside opportunities for A-shares.
Strategists at Bank of America say buying China** could be the most attractive contrarian long-term investment in the world right now.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management's China Investment Director said that the current historical absolute valuation quantile of China's equity assets and the valuation of relative bond assets are at a high attractive level, or have long-term allocation value. As China's macroeconomic expectations stabilize, the overall valuation of China** is expected to recover to some extent in 2024.
It is not uncommon for foreign investors to say that they are optimistic about China, and in the capital market, real gold is the only way to "really stand in line".
According to data from overseas trading **Market Chameleon, the call option volume of the overseas linked to the iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI), which tracks China**, has surged in the past week, reaching its highest point in more than a year.
According to Choice data, as of January 30, the overall share of ** ETFs in 2024 increased by 675900 million copies, calculated according to the average transaction price in the interval, the total inflow of funds was 135.8 billion yuan.
According to the Financial Times, in the fourth quarter of 2023, foreign investors increased their holdings of China's domestic bonds by 480 billion yuan, driving foreign investors to increase their holdings of Chinese bonds by 280 billion yuan in 2023.
In China, which is almost dry, some new rivers have appeared, and there may even be a wave of "big tides" in the future. In the face of a turning point, of course, the management agency cannot "let it go", and it is the right way to seize the opportunity, improve the investment link, retain funds, and make good use of funds.
First of all, investors should be the body, and the financiers should be used to plug the hole of abuse and speed up the elimination of inferior stocks, so as to consolidate the foundation and strengthen the body.
On January 22, the National Standing Committee proposed that "more powerful and effective measures should be taken to stabilize the market, stabilize confidence, and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market".
On January 24, the vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission proposed for the first time to "build an investor-oriented capital market". He said, "Only when the majority of investors have a real sense of gain, can the stable and healthy development of the capital market have a solid foundation, so as to truly stabilize the market and stabilize confidence." ”
On January 28, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a complete suspension of the lending of restricted shares, and adjusted the market-based declaration of refinancing securities from real-time to next-day availability, restricting the efficiency of securities lending and lending.
This can close some of the "holes of abuse".
But to really do a good job, we must also strictly rectify the ** order!
Compared with institutional investors, individual investors, especially small and medium-sized investors, are more susceptible to violations of laws and regulations such as financial fraud, fraudulent issuance, and market manipulation.
When to infringe on investors in violation of laws and regulations in the market, they will also "go bankrupt and sit in prison", and at the same time continue to survive the fittest, so as to "retreat as much as possible", in order to attract more investors to enter the market.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission said, "In the next step, we will continue to strengthen supervision, put the fairness of the system in a more prominent position, summarize and evaluate the operation effect in a timely manner, maintain market order in accordance with the law, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors." ”
I hope to be able to walk the talk.
Second, to continue to promote high-level financial opening-up, it is necessary to prevent hot money from bursting the embankment and increasing leverage to amplify risks, which may lead to myocardial infarction in the money market.
On 24 January, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) announced that it would include RMB sovereign bonds and policy financial bonds under the Northbound Cooperation under Bond Connect ("Northbound") in the list of eligible collateral for RMB liquidity arrangements, which is the first time that the collateral function of onshore bonds has been established in the offshore market.
On the same day, the Announcement on Further Supporting Foreign Institutional Investors to Carry out Bond Repurchase Business in the Interbank Bond Market (Consultation Paper) (the "Consultation Paper") was released.
This will activate the collateral function of RMB bonds, lay the foundation for onshore bonds to be used as globally accepted qualified collateral, and also provide the possibility for foreign investors to use Chinese government bonds to carry out basis arbitrage and basis rate arbitrage transactions, increasing the convenience, willingness and demand of foreign investors to invest in Chinese bonds.
At the same time, this will also bring - hot money with high leverage to do basis trading, sharply magnify the risk, and after encountering a black swan event, it will be forced to deleverage, triggering a serious liquidity crisis, leading to the possibility of myocardial infarction in the currency market.
Therefore, while steadily expanding the institutional opening up of the financial sector and improving the facilitation of cross-border investment and financing, it is also necessary to discover hidden risks in a timely manner, improve the response plan in advance, enhance the ability to cope with external risk shocks, and coordinate financial development and financial security.
Finally, it is necessary to put an end to formalism in the process of promoting the market value management assessment of listed companies of central enterprises, and beware of "pseudo market value management" for the "key minority" to make personal gains.
China**, for China's current economic situation, may be an "antidote".
At present, China's economy is like a hanging river that freezes in winter, with insufficient water under the ice, freezing on the surface, siltation at the bottom of the river, and slow flow of river water, which contains risks and crises. How to break the ice? How to solve the sediment at the bottom of the river?
In the "Year-end Ceremony", we proposed that we should learn to use the method of harnessing water and washing sand, use the "terrain" of assets to build embankments, lift **, stabilize the property market, restore confidence, promote consumption, and bundle the torrent of currency to wash away the sediment of debt.
The re-launch of the US dollar thermal circulation happens to provide an important opportunity for "water and sand"!
The "warm water" brought by the thermal circulation will provide heat and potential energy for thawing and breaking the ice. Taking advantage of the opportunity to raise the first can make China's first in 2024 a key link in regulating China's economy!
How to bind the water, how to flush the sand? Investor opportunities in**?
Please pay attention to Song Hongbing's year-end ceremony "The Great Reversal!" 2024 Great changes in the making! Online version,Reveal the core logic of investment in the era of the Great Reversal, make the right choice, and invest one step ahead!
2024 Great changes in the making! Seize the opportunity, the brave set sail, and the wise ride the wind and waves!
Don't miss out! Stay tuned!