More exciting articles: Adhere to independent thinking and get out of the herd mentality From February 5, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 05 percentage points, providing long-term liquidity to the market of about 1 trillion yuan, kicking off the prelude to the monetary policy in 2024. It is expected that there will be a rate cut process in the first half of this year.
In view of the current problems in the two major asset pools of real estate and A-shares, monetary policy should establish a sandbox isolation to avoid the transmission of risks between the two, which in turn brings systemic risks, which is actually a challenge to the domestic prudent monetary policy.
The asset bubbles in the United States, Europe and Japan are currently in a period of rapid expansion, coupled with the surge in global debt, which makes the international financial risk in the peak period after World War II.
In recent years, China has mainly used a prudent monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy to regulate and control the macroeconomy, and this policy is correct on the whole, but it is currently undergoing the test of internal and external financial and economic variables.
Internally, the a** field is currently paying the price for high-speed financialization, the long-term money game eventually leads to the imbalance between supply and demand of the a** field, so that the market falls into a bear market, and to change this situation in the later stage is to cooperate with the capital side, while the real estate market has been too large to fail, but also needs the long-term support of reasonable liquidity, and once the external risk expands significantly, when it begins to impact imports and exports, China's economy will be further pressured, and the growth of residents' income will also be under pressure, and the prudent monetary policy will face an adjustment window.
The current round of tight monetary policy and balance sheet reduction in the United States and Europe has multiple purposes, such as the need for international financial strategy, the transfer of debt crisis, the control of high inflation, the repair of monetary credit, etc., but the credit repair process of the dollar and the euro can only be phased, which is determined by the debt economic model of the United States and Europe. The United States and Europe are already in the process of irreversible debt explosion, which also determines that the United States and Europe cannot get out of the money printing game.
With the deepening of the asset bubble problem in the United States and Europe, once there is a new crisis in the United States and Europe, the scale of its money printing will expand sharply or even geometrically, otherwise the financial market will have a super-large-scale bubble squeeze process, so in the long run, the future large scale of money printing in the United States and Europe will also have an upgrade process, which will exceed the scale of the new crown crisis, once the financial crisis breaks out again in the United States and Europe, and the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have to bail out the market again, the world is likely to enter an era of high inflation, and then holding assets becomes more important.
For financial capital, it is mainly a game of conversion between money and between money and assets, and if this rhythm can be grasped well, the speed of wealth accumulation will be significantly accelerated.
If the global financial crisis breaks out again in the past two years, it is expected that all major economies will enter the quantitative easing cycle to make up for the liquidity black hole created by the financial crisis, at this time, the currency credit will decline significantly, the international monetary credit will fall to the low point after World War II, and the international strategic resources, including gold and silver and other assets, will be substantial, or even excessive, and the global credit currency will enter the era of anchoring, and the assets will be easily out of order, which will lead the world economy into long-term difficulties and crises.
The world economic crisis will make the international contradictions and the internal contradictions of various countries more intense, the United States and other developed countries will save themselves through hard means, and the global geopolitical conflict will continue to escalate, so we can see the credit trend of the international currency, and basically see the future international trend, China's enterprises and individuals should be more cautious in their foreign investment, and at the same time, internal investors should also focus more on assets, and pay more attention to the transition rhythm between risk-free assets and risky assets in the future. (This article is an original article by Xinyue said finance, **please indicate the author and** in Baijia Xinyue said finance).