The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics today released China's purchasing managers' index for January. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index rebounded slightly from the previous month, and the prosperity level improved.
China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49 in January2%, up 02 percentage points, ending a three-month downward trend.
Now many ** reports focus on "up 02 percentage points", but ignore the "manufacturing PMI" of 492%", which continues to be below the withering line. And there are a few points that we need to pay special attention to:
First, the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises is still deteriorating.
The employment index fell further to 0 in January3 percentage points to 476%, the lowest since December 2022
The main raw material purchase index did not continue the trend of the previous month, falling by 1 in January1 percentage point to 504, but still higher than the boom and bust line; The bargaining power of enterprises weakened further, and the ex-factory ** index fell by 07 percentage points to 47, both of which are the lowest since July 2023, but the purchase** index continues to be higher than the factory ** index, indicating that corporate profits are being squeezed.
In the past 10 years, China's manufacturing enterprises have driven an average of more than 45 million people to employ people every year, which has played an important role in stabilizing employment.
China's manufacturing industry has a strong demand for labor. Since the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security released the ranking of the 100 occupations with the "most shortage of workers" in 2019, the proportion of manufacturing occupations has remained high. The Q1 2022 rankings show that 36 of the 100 "most scarce" occupations belong to the manufacturing sector
When the employment index of the manufacturing industry continues to decline and employment will become a problem, China's troika of driving the economy will affect investment, exports, and consumption, and it will be impossible to start stimulating domestic demand throughout 2023.
Second, the prosperity level of enterprises of different sizes is differentiated.
The PMI of large enterprises rose 04 percentage points to 504. The survey results show that more than seventy percent of large enterprises have a capacity utilization rate of 80 or more0%, the company's production capacity is released quickly;The PMI of medium-sized enterprises rose 02 percentage points to 489；The small business PMI continued to move lower in contraction territory, falling by 01 percentage point to 472. The level of prosperity is low
But the key problem is that China's enterprises are mainly small and micro enterprises. According to Tianyancha real-time data, as of July 22, 2023, the total proportion of small and micro enterprises accounted for 91 of the market entities68%, and the total number of market entities has reached 16.6 billion.
Small and micro enterprises are now facing various problems, especially financial problems. According to the latest "Financial Health Report of Small and Micro Enterprises" released by the China Institute of Inclusive Finance, if 60 points are used as a passing reference score, the average sample value is 68 points, just past the passing level, more than one-third of small and micro enterprises are financially unhealthyJob prospects for 800 million people. According to central bank data, as of the end of September 2023, the number of registered business entities in the country reached 18.1 billion, and the number of inclusive small and micro credit households is 61.07 million.
In the "very unhealthy" group, about 80% of small and micro enterprises are unable to collect their receivables on time;Among the profitable small and micro enterprises, there are also 20% of them in a financially unhealthy state due to problems such as arrears of accounts receivable and insufficient cash reserves.
In the context of a cold external environment + unhealthy finance, the survival of China's small and micro enterprises is facing a great survival test. China has stepped up credit support for small and micro enterprises, but at present, it is far from enough.
In the current investment market and consumer market, there are all kinds of panic and irrationality. Good economic data does not necessarily boost confidence, but PMI data below the withering line will inevitably hit confidence. So I saw the familiar scene of 5,000 shares.