China has been slow to appoint a new Indian ambassador since Sun Weidong resigned as China's ambassador to India in October 2022, a position that has been vacant for 15 months.
This is a rare time for China and India in China's foreign relations. This is the first time since 1976 that the two countries have re-dispatched envoys. Even the United States, although there is a five-month diplomatic vacuum, India's vacuum has already made India feel uneasy.
What is the reason for this, I think India should be very clear. Since Sun Weidong stepped down, India has been clinging to the Line of Actual Control between China and India, which has made relations between China and India very tense.
There has been a diplomatic vacuum in Sino-Indian relations, which has sounded the alarm for India.
Relations between China and India have become even more strained after the border dispute between the two countries, especially after the military clash in the Galwan Valley in June. India, led by Modi, has taken a tough stance, not only proposing to properly handle the border issue, but also proposing a series of strategic and economic measures against China.
Among them, the most representative is the suppression of Indian and Chinese enterprises. In December, India raided Vivo's branch in India and arrested three employees, including the president and CFO, on suspicion of money laundering.
Xiaomi has also come under attack from India, where $4.8 billion in India has been frozen for transferring funds to its parent company, a violation of India's Foreign Exchange Management Act.
Indian industrial policymakers have made it clear that Modi is likely to impose more deregulation on Chinese companies in India, provided that the two sides agree on the Line of Actual Control.
Such a statement is tantamount to a tacit acquiescence to the purpose of India's policy towards Chinese companies. This not only hurts the relationship between China and India, but also harms the overall interests of Chinese companies, and also harms their own business environment.
The fact that China's representative to India has not been filled for more than a year shows that China has expressed its complaints and warnings to India in terms of foreign relations. At present, due to the intensifying border dispute and India's tough stance on it, China has not taken positive actions to promote the day-to-day exchanges between the two sides.
China has not completely severed relations with India, the mechanism of communication between the commanders of the two sides has always been in play, and there are high expectations for a significant improvement in Sino-Indian relations.
Tensions with India have no strategic significance for China.
India has never been included in an important diplomatic guideline in China's high-level strategic plans. The South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait are a major problem for China at present, and they are also an important aspect of China's foreign and national strategy that cannot be ignored. As a result, China prefers peaceful coexistence with its neighbors rather than involvement in pointless disputes.
Some of the skirmishes on the Sino-Indian border seem to have turned into a "dead hole" for both sides. India's frequent standoffs on this issue have forced China to divert its attention from potential China, which has annoyed it greatly.
It is clear that India has seen China as a competitor and will certainly clash with China in order to strengthen its influence in the region by challenging China.
But Modi should realize that as the elections approach, his priority will be to consolidate his regime and win the elections, rather than clashing with China. At such a critical moment, if there is a slight mistake, it will be used as a gun by Congress, and finally end up with a lose-lose situation.
As far as China is concerned, maintaining friendly relations with India is also an important strategy. China is willing to handle border disputes in a peaceful way and carry out more extensive exchanges with India in the economic and cultural fields, so as to promote the healthy development between the two countries.
India should understand that China has always been calm about the Sino-Indian border, and it is not afraid of India, but it just does not want to break this rare calm. If there is a war, China will certainly attract a large part of the attention, but the benefit that India will be able to take away from it is likely to be worse than it was in 1962.