Ask the gentleman to be rich and noble, and only the source of living water comes. Prosperity is not a mouthful, it requires real gold**.
Just last night, the central bank released macro monetary data, and the growth rate of M1 greatly exceeded market expectations, giving the just-arrived Lunar New Year a good wine full of expectations, and it can be regarded as a consolation for the poor feeling of 2023.
M is money, and in economic statistics, m0 represents cash in the market; M1 is the sum of short-term deposits and M0 in the market, representing the total amount of money in circulation; M2 is the sum of time deposits and M1, which represents the total amount of money in the market. Among the three M's, M1 and M2 are often used, of which M1 is used to measure whether social credit is smooth, that is, the effective use of funds, and M2 is used to measure the supply of funds in the market, that is, whether there is a shortage of money for economic development. They are closely related to the formulation of monetary policy, the level of M1 determines the market interest rate, and the level of M2 determines the reserve requirement ratio.
Finance is the center of the market, money is the blood of the economy, nerves are responsible for transmitting information, and blood is responsible for transporting nutrients. If the financial situation is not smooth, the market will be chaotic, if the currency is unbalanced, the economy will become neurotic, this is the principle of "through the reach, up to the smooth", the author believes that in 2023 our economy experienced pains, mainly from the blockage of the financial market, fortunately we are tough enough, the policy finally opened up the pulse of finance, the first month of the year M1 data far exceeded expectations is proof, everyone should be full of hope for our 2024.
First of all, let's disassemble M1, the balance of narrow money M1 in January increased by 5% year-on-year9%, and the M1 data in the fourth quarter of last year was no more than 2%, which directly exceeded expectations, indicating that the blocked credit channel has been truly opened; From a lending perspective, new RMB loans were added by 492 trillion, an increase of 16.2 billion year-on-year, we must understand that January last year was the month of a high base of loans after the epidemic was liberalized, and it was not easy to achieve a year-on-year increase, especially the increase in long-term loans of enterprises by 3As much as 86 trillion yuan, it can be seen that entrepreneurs' confidence in economic development is indeed recovering; RMB deposits increased by 139 trillion, which shows that people's confidence in consumption is also recovering, enterprises have confidence in production, residents have the desire to consume, and economic development is worth looking forward to.
Secondly, the scissors difference between M1 and M2 began to widen again, if the growth rate of M1 minus the growth rate of M2 continued to narrow, it means that the credit is not smooth, and the currency is idling in the market, and if the growth rate of M1 minus the growth rate of M2 continues to expand, it means that the money in the market has been effectively used. The scissors gap in January widened again, and the RRR cut in February was good, which not only dredged the pipeline for the development of the economy, but also provided living water for the development of the economy, and we have no reason not to have confidence in the development of the economy.
Again, for the vast majority of people, the economic development dividend in the short term can only benefit from the **, as the main body of investors' expectations, M1 and credit far beyond expectations superimposed on the current low valuation range, the possibility of stabilizing the bull greatly increased, and for the participants with unwavering beliefs, this is the best New Year's gift.
We are always more optimistic because we are optimistic, and more pessimistic because we are pessimistic, and the starting point of all this is because we exceed expectations. Entering the era of the Internet economy, we often mention a word is experience, the so-called experience, in fact, is beyond expectations, now our economic predicament is not so much mainly blocked in the circulation is not smooth, but mainly blocked in the lack of confidence, so the more the economy does not develop smoothly, the more we have no confidence, and the more we have no confidence, the more we do not consume, the economy will develop more unsmoothly, which forms a vicious circle. But when an experiential event that exceeds expectations happens, everything will turn around, the economy will get better, and we will have confidence, and because we are more and more confident, the economy will get better and better again, and the growth rate of M1 far exceeds market expectations is such an event - an event that allows us to regain confidence in economic development.
The world is material, but also conscious, especially in the era of the dominant soft economy, due to the transformation of the main way of creating wealth, so that the influence of consciousness is increasing, people are optimistic or pessimistic, in essence, it is a reflection of future expectations, so whether it is high-level managers, or ordinary ordinary people, should pay more attention to the guidance and management of expectations, for the country, good expectation management can be satisfactory; For organizations, good expectation management can lead to a thriving business; For individuals, good expectation management can at least increase well-being.
Therefore, in investment, it is not so important to pay attention to the economic data itself, the key is to look at the expectations represented behind the economic data.