As of January 11th, the panel industry data have been released, the main products have stabilized and rebounded, the industry storm that began in 2022 has finally stopped, and it may enter the rising channel at the beginning of this year, but the shipment of terminal electronic consumer goods is sluggish, resulting in a "fight" between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and the recovery will not be smooth sailing. Industry experts pointed out,This year, panel manufacturers are expected to rely on large-size panels led by color TV demand to turn over,However,This not only requires a consensus in the industry,It is also necessary to"hibernation"Waiting for the peak consumption season。
Upstream and downstream "fight".
According to DiscienDixian monitoring data,As of the end of December 2023,Mainstream size TV panels,That is32-75Inch panels,**Compared with November**About 1-3 US dollars,86Inch TV panels fell by 4 US dollars,Although *** but still reveals some good information,Generally speaking,The fourth quarter is the off-season for panel shipments,This time**The decline is relatively moderate,It is expected this year。
A more pronounced rebound was achieved in the first and second quarters.
In addition, according to the statistics of Aowei cloud network, in 2023, the display market demand will be at the lowest level in the past three years, and global shipments of complete machines are expected to decrease by 6% year-on-year. The upstream panel** is also in the cold winter, with single-quarter shipments failing to exceed 40m, and the annual shipment is expected to be 145m, which is expected to decrease by 7 year-on-year2%。However, growth is expected in 2024, and global display panel shipments are expected to reach 1508m, an expected increase of 4% year-on-year.
Industry observer Hong Shibin believes that if panel manufacturers fall into a situation of losing more and more in 2022, 2023 will be considered to be firm, but it is still at a low point, and it is expected to climb slowly from this year.
The decline of the industry is also reflected in the company's performance, of which Rainbow shares (600707) will deduct a non-net profit loss of about 34 in 2022800 million yuan, as of the third quarter of last year, about 2300 million yuan, the situation of the panel "double" BOE and TCL technology is similar, of which TCL technology will deduct a non-net profit loss of about 2.7 billion yuan in 2022, and it will return to positive in the first three quarters of last year, reaching about 500 million yuan, while BOE will deduct a non-net profit loss of about 22 in 20222.9 billion yuan, a loss of about 14 in the first three quarters of last year9.2 billion yuan.
Because of this, panel manufacturers have a strong demand for price increases, with the low utilization rate, the market may usher in the bottom, but from the negative side, in the context of insufficient demand for mobile phones, TVs, PCs, and computers, the price increase of panels means that the cost of terminal manufacturers is contradictory, and the upstream and downstream demands of the industrial chain are contradictory, and the fluctuations cannot be ignored.
In the case of PC computers, shipments in the fourth quarter of 2023 slightly exceeded expectations, but it was still the eighth consecutive quarter of decline, and it was also the fourth quarter with the lowest shipments since 2006. According to IDC data, the global sales of personal computing devices in 2022 will be 16% higher than the previous year5%, and in 2023, it will shrink by 13 compared to 20229%。
Large size is key
Downstream demand is sluggish, what are the best ways for panel manufacturers to get out of trouble? In this regard, Hong Shibin believes that the means taken for panel products of different sizes are also different, but in the long run, large-size panels may become the ballast stone for shipments.
Experts pointed out,At present, panel products can be roughly divided into large、Medium and small three sizes,Small and medium-sized sizes are mostly for notebook computers、Mobile phone products,Large size is mainly ** color TV,The market demand for small and medium-sized panels is relatively stable,The increment mainly comes from LTPO、FIAA and other new technologies,But this growth is phased rather than continuous,The real growth resilience is still the large-size panel for color TV,With the continuous increase of color TV screens,The demand for panels is also rising。
From the perspective of industry data,20232-9month,Driven by the trend of large-screen TV and consumption recovery,Large-size TV panels**collective**trend,55Products above inches**rose by about 20%,Among them55Inch TV panels increased by more than 50%. As a large-size panel leader, TCL Technology's performance has picked up, and the company's single-quarter profit increased to 12 in the third quarter of last year700 million yuan, exceeding market expectations.
It should be pointed out,For panel manufacturers,The definition of large size is broader than that of color TV,In today's color TV field,Often75Products above inches are regarded as increments,The price can generally reach3000-5000Yuan,65Inch and below products,The price is only between two or three thousand yuan,It is regarded as a popular product,But in the view of panel manufacturers,55Inches or more belong to the incremental market,From a technical point of view,The main thing that can cut large-size panels efficiently and economically11Generation line, which also allows the head manufacturers to obtain more obvious technical advantages and eat the dividends of the large-size panel market.
Experts believe that after experiencing the last round of painful price drops and losses, on the one hand, manufacturers have stepped up the implementation of flexible production strategies, on the other hand, major enterprises have also formed a consensus on price protection, and are not in a hurry to increase production capacity and ship a large number of goods, but "hibernating" waiting for the arrival of the peak consumption season in the middle of the year.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Tao Feng Wang Zhuli.