The Kokang people want to return to the embrace of the motherland, what a touching wish. They are the descendants of China, their culture is the culture of China, and their blood is the blood of the Han people. They fled to Burma with the Yongli Emperor, and were later ceded to Burma by the British colonizers, becoming a cross-border people. They have endured countless hardships and humiliations, but they have never forgotten their roots. Under Peng Deren's leadership, they cracked down on telecom fraud, restored Chinese language education, and regained Chinese civilization. In their battle letters, they expressed their determination to return to the motherland and were willing to give up their arms and become civilians. What a touching feat it is, and it makes people feel thrilled and admired.
But can the wish of the Kokang people be fulfilled? Is there any truth to their wishes? Even though they have a strong historical basis, their future is not clear. Because, it seems that there are only three options for the fate of Dakang, but only one is realistic.
The first option is to return to the motherland, which is a beautiful dream. There seems to be some truth in boldly returning to the motherland, but it must not violate the bottom line of international morality determined by history.
Historically, this place was originally part of China. Before the Ming Dynasty, Kokang was managed by Tusi and was not directly governed by the imperial court. The Han Dynasty belonged to Yongchang County of the Eastern Han Dynasty, and the Yuan Dynasty was Zhenkang Road in Yunnan Province. In 1658, Emperor Yongli fled to Burma and was later killed by Wu Sangui. The accompanying soldiers and generals stayed in Kokang and other places. The bold Tusi was a descendant of the Ming Dynasty general Yang Gaoxue, who was also canonized by the Qing Emperor. After the British occupied Burma, they took the opportunity to incorporate northern Burma and other places into their territory. In 1897, China and Britain signed the Supplementary Articles of the Sino-Burmese Treaty, and Britain gained control of Kokang in the name of "perpetual lease". In 1960, with the signing of the border treaty between the two countries, Kokang, with the Han Chinese as the main body, officially became part of Myanmar. After 1959, Kokang fell into a period of turmoil. After decades of war, the Communist Party of Burma firmly controlled the Kokang region in 1989.
It can be said that the fact precipitated by history is that Kokang is undoubtedly a part of Myanmar, but the main body of the Kokang people is Han Chinese, which belongs to a cross-border ethnic group, just like the Russians, a cross-border ethnic group in eastern Ukraine. The customary culture of the Kokang people belongs to Chinese culture. Based on the international rules of international law and morality of Westphalia in 1648, the national borders that have been precipitated by history are unshakable. Therefore, the bold return to the motherland does not conform to modern international rules. Therefore, the Motherland will not accept a bold return, and therefore the first option is impossible. Can't Kokang return by referendum like the Russians in eastern Ukraine? Don't forget that the traditional culture of China and Russia is different. Not much more, can't say more.
The second option is to be bold and independent, which is a dangerous adventure. This option is also not feasible. At least three are not feasible. The first is that Myanmar will resolutely oppose it, which is the first one that is not feasible. The second is that China will not agree or accept Kokang either, this is the second infeasible. More importantly, the international community will not agree, which is the third inviability. If a precedent is set for cross-border peoples to return to their homeland, the domino effect of the international community will be like Pandora's box, and the international community will be chaotic. Almost all of Russia and its neighboring countries have cross-border ethnic issues, and there are more than 30 cross-border ethnic groups around China. The cross-border ethnic problem in the United States is much more serious than in China, second only to Russia.
The third option is a realistic compromise with a high degree of autonomy. The strengthening of Kokang's military power laid a solid foundation for the realization of a high degree of autonomy. At present, it is impossible for the Myanmar ** army to go all out to confront Kokang, and can only recognize the reality of Kokang's autonomy.
At present, Kokang can only have a high degree of autonomy, and can neither be independent nor return to the motherland. In the future, as conditions change, we may move from a high degree of autonomy to independent statehood, and then to return to the motherland. There must be a lot of resistance on this road. Russia has sent experts to help Myanmar fight the Kokang Alliance, will the United States interfere in the war in northern Myanmar in the future? If the United States supports Myanmar**, will it trigger a second Ukraine** war? How will China, the United States and Russia play a game over the war in northern Myanmar? I am not a fortune teller, but I can foresee that the future war in northern Myanmar will involve complex international moral relations. We'll see.
In short, there are three options for being bold, and at the moment only one with a high degree of autonomy can succeed, and neither of the other two will succeed. Because, they do not conform to international moral rules. Anything that does not conform to international moral rules is generally difficult to succeed. Whether Udong can return to Russia is unknown. Moreover, this is only a very special case, and Kokang cannot be compared with it.