China-Singapore Jingwei, January 31 According to the "International Monetary Organization" **30th, the IMF released the world economy in January 2024.
The IMF said the global economy is beginning to enter the final phase of achieving a soft landing, with inflation steadily declining and growth consolidating. But the pace of economic expansion remains slow, and there could be turmoil ahead. In the second half of last year, global economic activity was resilient as demand and supply factors underpinned growth in major economies. On the demand side, despite tight monetary conditions, private and ** spending strengthened, sustaining economic activity. On the supply side, while geopolitical uncertainty has intensified again, increased labor force participation, chain repair, and energy and commodities have all played a beneficial role.
IMF**, global economic growth will stabilize at 31%, an increase of 0. from the ** value in October 20232 percentage points, and the growth rate will rise slightly to 3 next year2%。
As the outlook improves, risks have been mitigated and balanced. IMF analysis, on the upside:
Inflation is likely to fall faster than expected, especially if labor market tightness eases further and short-term inflation expectations continue to fall, allowing central banks to ease policy sooner.
The 2024-2025 fiscal consolidation announced by countries** is likely to be delayed as this year marks the largest global election year in history, and many countries face growing calls for greater public spending. This may boost economic activity, but it will also stimulate inflation and make it more likely to cause disruptions in the future.
Looking ahead, rapid advances in AI are likely to spur investment and drive rapid productivity growth, even though it poses a major challenge for workers.
On the downside:
Geopolitical tensions are rising again, potentially causing new commodity and ** disruptions.
Core inflation is likely to be more persistent. Relative to services, goods are still at an all-time high. The adjustment could be achieved by extending both the inflation in the services sector and inflation in the economy as a whole. The trend in wages is likely to exacerbate the pressure.
The market seems to be overly optimistic about the prospect of a rate cut soon. If investors reassess their views, long-term interest rates will rise, putting new pressure on ** for faster fiscal consolidation, which could be a drag on economic growth. (Zhongxin Jingwei app).
For more exciting content, please pay attention to the official WeChat of JWVIEW***