Putin's recent trip to Turkey has garnered widespread attention, not just because it was his first visit to a NATO membership, but also at a sensitive time in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Many eyes are glued to the visit, speculating about whether it will bring new variables to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, or whether NATO will reach some kind of agreement with Putin behind the scenes.
But in my opinion, we don't need to speculate. Putin's visit was not sudden, but carefully planned and considered. Back in August last year, Erdogan extended an invitation to Putin to visit, although he did not make the trip due to security concerns due to interference from the Prigozhin crash. Now, with the passage of six months, both Russia and Turkey have made better preparations and considerations, and this meeting can be said to be a matter of course.
Erdogan's motives as the active inviter are obvious: Turkey is currently in a delicate period. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Turkey has been moving between the United States and Russia, trying to find a balance. And last year's 7The level 8 has caused Turkey's infrastructure to suffer heavy losses and plunged its economy into chaos. With annual inflation above 50%, Turkey's economic outlook is getting bleaker. Against this backdrop, Erdogan urgently needs to meet with Putin to discuss how to stabilize food and energy** in order to ease economic pressure at home.
It is worth mentioning that Russia has been able to maintain a healthy economy in the face of Western sanctions, mainly due to its strong food and energy capabilities. Turkey, on the other hand, is stretched thin in this regard. In July last year, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal, which severely affected Turkey's grain **. At the same time, Turkey's pipeline to import energy from Russia is also at risk of being cut off. These pressures have forced Erdogan to bow to Putin and seek cooperation.
In this meeting, Erdogan is likely to make overtures to Putin, especially when it comes to dealing with Russia-Ukraine affairs. He may offer some conditions in exchange for Russian support in terms of food and energy **. And Putin, as a shrewd politician, will naturally seize this opportunity to understand Erdogan's true intentions and seek the most beneficial cooperation options for himself.
In general, Putin's visit to Turkey is not only a diplomatic visit, but also an opportunity for economic cooperation. Against the backdrop of the US-Russia game, Turkey is in a difficult position, but it is still trying to maximize its own interests. The contest and cooperation between Putin and Erdogan, two politicians with very different styles, will also become an important factor affecting the regional situation.