Housing prices in China have risen for more than 20 years. Many families can buy a two-bedroom apartment with this little savings at the beginning. However, due to the rapid housing prices, within a few years, you can only buy a one-bedroom house. After that, the house price continued, and in a few years, the deposit in hand could only barely make a down payment. As a result, some people are always worried that if they don't buy a house now, they will be even more unable to buy a house in the future.
After entering 2024, there are two major phenomena in China's financial market: one is that various favorable policies for bailing out the market continue. Banks are now cutting mortgage rates, which are currently at historically low levels. At the same time, various localities have increased the amount of provident fund loans to reduce the cost of home purchases.
The other is that deposit rates are constantly falling. The interest rate on three-year deposits has fallen to less than 3%, and the interest rate on one-year deposits has also fallen to less than 2%. At present, bank deposit rates are at historically low levels, and there may be room for further reductions in deposit rates in the future.
Now the question is, should we "buy a house" or "save money" this year and next? In this regard, two different opinions have emerged on the Internet. Some people believe that now the interest rate on deposits is getting lower and lower, and the enthusiasm of depositors to save money has been hit. At present, it is the introduction of various favorable policies to encourage the purchase of houses, and it is wise to buy a house this year and next year. However, some people have also proposed: the domestic real estate bubble is too big, sooner or later to return to the residential attributes, now only desperately save money, wait until the house price falls, and then choose to buy a house is not too late.
In view of the above problems, we believe that if you are a family who just needs to buy a house for self-occupation, for example, settling down, getting married, educating your children, etc., then you can take advantage of the opportunity of favorable policies to encourage everyone to buy a house and buy a good house you like when economic conditions allow. However, if you are looking to buy a house for investment, then you should still choose to "save money" rather than "buy a house". After 5 years, it's clear at a glance.
First, there is still a bubble in domestic housing prices
After more than 20 years of **, there are different bubbles in housing prices in various parts of China. For example, the housing price bubble in third- and fourth-tier cities is not very large, but the outflow of population is greater than the inflow, and the local housing prices will be in a trend of "no market" and "long-term decline" in the future. The housing price bubble in the first-tier cities is relatively large, far from the income of local residents, and the space for housing prices in the future is relatively large.
Obviously, in the next 5 years, there is a high probability that high domestic housing prices will be squeezed out of the bubble and gradually return to a reasonable range. Therefore, buying a house this year and next year, the next 5 years is likely to be a significant reduction in the market value of the property, and the money is stored in the bank, at least the principal and interest are still guaranteed.
Second, house price trends will be determined by supply and demand
Now there is a surplus of houses in the country, and there has been a clear shift in supply and demand. According to official figures, there are a total of 600 million houses in the country. Of course, these "600 million" houses also include self-built houses, schools, factories and other buildings. However, even so, it is an indisputable fact that there is a serious surplus of houses in the country. And in the case of a serious surplus of houses, the space of housing prices is blocked, and the space of housing prices is opened.
Third, there is less and less rigid demand and improvement demand
In recent years, the number of young people in China getting married is getting smaller and smaller, which means that the demand for buying a wedding house in the future is getting less and less. At the same time, the number of newborn births in 2023 is decreasing. As the number of families with two or three children becomes smaller and smaller, the demand for improved housing will also shrink rapidly. And with the number of young people getting married, and the number of newborns being born is getting smaller and smaller, it is impossible to expect housing prices to appear. In the next 5 years, housing prices can only show a "steady decline" and gradually return to the end of residential attributes.