In 2023, the production and sales of automobiles will reach a new high, from Tesla's sharp price reduction at the beginning of the year, which kicked off the prelude to the first war, to the subsidy carried out by local ** joint car companies, and then to the withdrawal of national subsidies, and a series of events such as the implementation of the National VI standard throughout the year, which will continue to drive automobile consumption and accelerate the survival of the fittest in the market. According to the performance of the automobile market this year, Autohome Research Institute has summarized 8 major characteristics and changes in the automobile market:
1. The demand for passenger cars has recovered steadily, and the characteristics of the stock market have been highlighted.
In 2023, the sales of narrow passenger cars will reach 21.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 56%, the first time in the past five years that the growth rate exceeded 5%, thanks to the unexpected recovery of the economic environment in the second half of the year and the large-scale exchange of price for volume by automakers. It is expected to maintain a low growth trend in 2024**, with annual sales of about 22.5 million.
2. The relationship between new energy and fuel oil continues to compete, and the growth point of new energy penetration in 2024 will be in the 25-500,000 ** range.
In 2023, the sales of fuel vehicles will continue to show a rapid downward trend, and the new energy penetration rate will continue to increase to 36%, and the overall new energy penetration rate growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2024, ** and the new energy penetration rate will reach 43% by 2024. In 2024, a large number of new vehicles will be released and concentrated in the 25-500,000 market, so the growth point of new energy penetration will come from the 25-500,000 market.
Third, the market demand below 250,000 will return to rationality, and the 25-500,000 market will launch a fierce battle of intelligence vs luxury.
The price market is led by the head brand, and the competitive environment is divided into three price segments, of which less than 250,000 is dominated by electric vehicles, and BYD has always been a standout; 25-500,000 head positions are competing for BBA and intelligent brands such as Ideal, Tesla, and Denza; The market of more than 500,000 is still led by BBA.
The market below 250,000 yuan: mainly occupied by BYD, in this price market, BYD's product layout is basically perfect, and the market share has peaked, so there will be more crazy price reductions in 2024 to ensure growth rate; For users, without the sound of popular new energy vehicles, demand will gradually return to rationality.
25-500,000 market: It will undertake a number of new cars from popular new energy brands such as Ideal, Huawei, and Xiaomi in 2024, which is the biggest attraction of the industry in 2024; At the same time, the BBA's perennially stable luxury share is likely to be turbulent in 2024.
Fourth, the automobile market is more likely to migrate to the central and northern regions and middle-tier cities.
In 2023, from the perspective of regional sales distribution, the market share of Northeast China, North China, Northwest China and Central China will increase, the share of third- and fourth-tier cities will increase, the automobile market will be more concentrated in the central and northern regions, and the market structure will migrate to middle-tier cities.
Fifth, the overseas influence has expanded, and the overseas export of passenger cars has become a new increment.
In 2023, China's vehicle exports will reach a new high, with annual export sales reaching 4.91 million units, a year-on-year increase of 58%, ranking first in the world for the first time and becoming an important force driving the growth of automobile sales. On the one hand, the toughness of China's automobile chain is highlighted, the product quality is improved, and the cost advantage is increased; On the other hand, European, American, Japanese and other automobile manufacturers have withdrawn from the first-class market to give up share of Chinese manufacturers' exports.
Sixth, the industrial chain ecology is facing reshaping and developing towards intelligence.
In the past two years, the profits of the industry have begun to disperse upstream and downstream, taking Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou as an example, the number of registered automobile-related enterprises is very different from that of traditional automobile production provinces (Geely, Chongqing, Hubei).
7. The pattern of data assets needs to be broken urgently, and the exploration of capitalization is accelerating.
Intelligent development will precipitate a large number of user data, the accumulation of which will be used for iterative algorithms, which will help China's automotive technology to be at the forefront of the world, while the current ownership of user data is distributed in the hands of different fields and different institutions, and it is difficult to give full play to all the advantages.
8. The traditional auto finance pattern has been broken, and the channel model has been explored and innovated.
The self-operated channels of OEMs and auto insurance mean that the traditional auto finance pattern is being broken. The rise of direct sales marks a new opportunity for the channel model of the automotive industry. In fact, it is not only the sales channels that are affected, but also all the user touchpoints in the aftermarket, including finance, maintenance, software services, etc., are facing the innovation of the times.
Autohome Research Institute released the "2023 Passenger Car Market Summary and 2024 Trends" report, which includes: overall market trends and **, trend analysis by fuel type, trend analysis of each brand, market trend analysis by level, and regional market trend analysis. Details of the report are available below