This article**: People's Daily Online.
According to the official official of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China on December 27, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Modern Finance Research Institute released a series of outlook reports for 2024 (hereinafter referred to as the "report"), focusing on global economic and financial topics, global banking, green finance, science and technology innovation finance and other themes, and looking forward to the economic and financial development trends in 2024.
Regarding the international economic and financial situation, the report believes that looking forward to 2024, with the increasing uncertainty of the external environment, international investment and investment continue to show diversification and regionalization characteristics, the current round of global interest rate hike cycle is nearing the end, aggregate demand will be gradually released with the turn of the monetary environment, and the international economic recovery is expected to enter a period of supply and demand adjustment. With the decline in inflation and interest rates, the international financial market as a whole is cautiously optimistic, but considering the time lag of monetary policy, it is expected that the overall interest rate level will remain in a high range, and the global financial market is still characterized by periodic fluctuations and divergence. Uncertainties such as major overseas economies may further complicate the prospects for global multilateral cooperation, and the challenges and opportunities of international financial governance coexist, and there is still a long way to go in financial risk management, energy transition and multilateral cooperation, and China's role in the global governance system will be further highlighted.
Regarding the domestic economic and financial situation, the report believes that in 2023, China's macroeconomic control policies will be effective, the economy will withstand external pressure, overcome internal difficulties, consumption will continue to recover steadily, the service industry will maintain rapid growth, the innovation momentum will continue to increase, and the financial market will maintain steady operation, showing an overall upward trend. Looking forward to 2024, China will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down, taking more into account development and security, and pursuing both stable growth and high-quality transformation. Among them, the "troika" will work together, manufacturing and infrastructure investment to maintain a high growth rate, export recovery is expected to form a positive pull. At the same time, China will actively promote the goal of becoming a financial power and effectively support and serve the real economyWe will strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation and control of macro policies, moderately strengthen the active fiscal policy, improve quality and efficiency, and make the prudent monetary policy flexible, moderate, precise and effective, so as to stimulate the endogenous growth momentum of the economy and promote the supply and demand to a new balance.
Regarding the development of the global banking industry, the report believes that market turbulence and financial fragility will continue to occur in 2024, and the global banking industry will be characterized by risk resonance and operational differentiation. Among them, the improvement of interest margins in the European and American banking industries has decreased the supporting effect on net profit, the pace of balance sheet expansion continues to remain low under recession expectations, and the pressure on asset quality may lead to an increase in provisionsChina's banking industry continued to increase its support for the real economy, maintained steady growth in asset scale, revitalized existing funds to adapt to the economy, and continued to optimize its credit structure, while maintaining a solid risk bottom line and consolidating its capital base, so as to promote the construction of a financial power through comprehensive deepening reform. In the face of the new situation, the development and transformation of the global banking industry presents five major trends: digitalization, business structure adjustment, cost optimization, sustainable governance, and strengthening risk prevention.
Regarding the situation of green finance, the report believes that global green development is gradually "back on track", the scale of green investment has maintained growth, international cooperation has increased significantly, the green and low-carbon transformation plans of various countries have become more pragmatic, and green development has entered the three "new" stages of green recovery brewing new momentum, green competition and cooperation finding a new balance, and green standards brewing new consensus. Looking forward to 2024, China's green finance will show a high-quality development trend of "synergistic efforts and momentum for transformation", the dual-engine model of green finance and transition finance will continue to mature, the new energy industry is expected to rebalance, and the diversified green financial product system will be accelerated, and China will continue to play an important role in the development of global green finance. Among them, ten major areas, including transition finance, green fintech, environmental information disclosure, carbon market construction, carbon accounting, ecological assets, green "new three", biodiversity, methane emission control, and climate risk response, may become new highlights of green finance development throughout the year.
On the one hand, with the shift of monetary policies in the United States and Europe, the global liquidity environment is expected to improve, and at the same time, the main lines of investment such as artificial intelligence and green and low-carbon are gradually clear, which will be good for the recovery of investment in the field of science and technology. From China's point of view, the first financial work conference will put science and technology finance in the first place of the "five articles", the policy framework of science and technology finance will be accelerated, the market mechanism will be more optimized, and the whole life cycle financial system from the start-up period to the mature period will be accelerated and improved around the development of science and technology enterprisesAt the same time, with the development of new drivers and new tracks such as strategic emerging industries and future industries, the support for supporting science and technology finance is expected to be greatly increased to help the development of new quality productivity.