The tracking report of the machine tool industry in the fourth quarter of 2023 shows that the prosperity of the entire industry is still hovering at a low level, and the signs of recovery expected by the market have not yet appeared. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics and MIR, the domestic machine tool output reached 17 during the 23Q4 period220,000 units, an increase of 213%, an increase of 123%, showing a certain degree of enthusiasm at the production end; However, the shipment of CNC metal cutting machine tools is only 320,000 units, down 205%, down 137%, indicating that the pressure on the market demand side has increased significantly.
In terms of downstream applications, the overall demand of the machine tool industry is weak, especially the electronics, automobiles, general machinery and other industries closely related to the consumption of ordinary residents have shown a significant downward trend in this quarter. Among the many downstream industries, only the demand in the aerospace sector remained relatively stable, basically the same as in the previous period.
From the point of view of the sales performance of machine tool models, the performance of 23Q4 five-axis machine tools is relatively good, and the sales volume has achieved 83% year-on-year growth. However, traditional models such as horizontal lathes and vertical lathes have encountered more severe challenges, and sales have declined significantly, mainly due to the continued sluggish demand in their main downstream markets, such as automobile manufacturing, mold processing and electronics manufacturing.
At the level of market competition, the market share of domestic head machine tool manufacturers in 23Q4 showed an upward trend, of which Haitian Precision's market share (calculated by sales) increased by 05 percentage points, Beijing Jingdiao increased by 03 percentage points, Neway CNC is an increase of 16 percentage points, highlighting the improvement of the competitiveness of domestic brands. At the same time, due to the decline in demand in the automotive industry, the market share of Japanese companies has shown a continuous downward trend, and the industry is going through a stage of deep integration and liquidation.
In terms of sales of CNC systems, a total of 7 CNC systems were sold in 23Q440,000 units, down 36%, down 50%, the decline has narrowed, but overall still reflects the sluggish market demand.
We believe that the overall prosperity of the current machine tool industry is still low, and from the orders in hand of major manufacturers in 23Q4 and January 24, there is no expected sales season, and the sales performance in the first half of 2024 will have a limited supporting role. Considering the current environmental background of domestic demand contraction, it is conservatively expected that at least until the middle or second half of 2024, the machine tool industry may usher in a turning point. However, there are also some positive signals in the industry: first, the industry is in the process of rapid reshuffle, and small-scale enterprises are accelerating their exit from the market; Second, despite facing many uncertainties, from 23Q4 to January 24, export orders in overseas markets are still maintained at a high level.
Therefore, it is recommended that investors pay attention to the leading companies in the machine tool industry that have experienced a large number of recent stock prices, have competitive advantages and are expected to benefit from the industry turnaround, including but not limited to [Haitian Precision], [Neway CNC], [Kede CNC] and [Huazhong CNC].
Finally, it should be reminded that investors in the industry still need to be alert to the risks of the recovery of the machine tool industry is less than expected, intensified market competition and hindered progress in overseas exports.
Note: The data and opinions in this article are provided by the Soochow Machinery team and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.
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