In 2024, Trump can be said to be overwhelming, winning party primaries in many states in the United States, except for the former US Permanent Representative to the United Nations Nikki Haley, his main party rivals have withdrawn. The sudden rise of Trumpism once again proves that the right-wing populism behind him is still a social trend in the United States that cannot be ignored. In fact, right-wing populism has long since spread from the United States to the entire Western world. Why is right-wing populism so popular in the West, and what are the consequences and implications of its rise?
Right-wing populist parties have sprung up
Under the current major changes in the world unseen in a century, the geopolitical pattern and the international system have been profoundly adjusted, various contradictions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and major power competition have converged and intertwined, and many countries in the Western world have suffered multiple crises in the economy, energy and people's livelihood, and popular dissatisfaction has contributed to the rise of populism.
Across Europe, different styles of far-right parties – nostalgic nationalism, populist nationalism, ultra-conservatism with neo-fascist roots, and so on – are growing rapidly. A number of populist parties, such as the Sweden Democrats and the AfD, continue to rise in support. In December 2023, Germany's far-right AfD won the mayoral election for the first time, a result that caused heated discussions in Germany and was seen as symbolic. In Sweden, the Sweden Democratic Party, which is staunchly opposed to immigration and multiculturalism, is the second largest party in parliament and supports a right-wing coalition**; The overall support of populist parties in France** has surpassed that of traditional parties; The Brothers of Italy party, known as the "neo-Nazis", became the largest party in the country, and also formed a three-party coalition of the right wing**.
At the end of 2023, in the new parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, the Freedom Party, led by the anti-EU extreme right-wing populist Hert Wilders, won the first place in the vote and won the opportunity to form a government. The European community was also quite surprised by the victory of the right-wing Liberal Party, calling it "one of the biggest political turmoil in Europe". In Greece, three far-right parties have won enough seats to enter parliament. And in Spain, the controversial nationalist Voice party, the first successful far-right party in Spain since the death of fascist Francisco Franco, also exceeded all expectations in the regional elections.
In Argentina in South America, Javier Milley, the center-right anti-establishment candidate of the Liberal Forward Party (FP), also defeated his rival by a large percentage of the vote.
The rise of populism is reshaping the country's political ecology
Right-wing populism is gaining momentum, and it is further reshaping Western countries' economic policies, electoral models, political issues, and foreign cooperation, profoundly changing the traditional political life of their own countries.
Recently, tensions between the U.S. federal government and Texas have escalated into a military standoff, leading to a huge political storm in the United States. The trigger for this incident was Biden's order to dismantle the US-Mexico "border wall", which Texas refused to implement. Building a "border wall" between the United States and Mexico is exactly what Trump has introduced since taking office, driven by his populist philosophy of "America First." The Nordic countries, which have always been known for their tolerance, have gradually tightened their immigration policies due to the rise of populism and the increasing tolerance of foreign migrants, and the xenophobia is serious. Under the influence of populist ideology, social differentiation has intensified, contradictions between various ethnic groups and strata have intensified, and xenophobia and hatred of the rich have become rampant. In the United States, 70% of Republican voters support Trump's aggressive immigration policies and the construction of a "border wall" between the United States and Mexico.
Under the influence of populism, the domestic and foreign policies of Western countries have gradually become conservative and inward-looking. Represented by Trump's "America First", the United States has vigorously promoted "re-industrialization" at home, reduced international obligations and responsibilities, and engaged in "withdrawing from the group and abolishing the treaty" in foreign policy. Under the exemplary effect of the United States, the policies of European countries have also tended to be inward-leaning, pursuing a "national first" policy, reducing foreign aid, tightening immigration policies, and limiting the number of immigrants.
Be wary of the pernicious effects of populism
The strong rise of right-wing populist forces in the West has had an unprecedented international impact. As the world's largest and most comprehensive developing country, China will inevitably be affected.
Populism has long been seen by Western societies as a destructive force of heresy. However, due to the corruption of the traditional elite political groups in the West, as well as the multiple blows of the international financial crisis and the refugee crisis, this force has gradually entered the mainstream in the West. It should be noted, however, that the far-right political parties in many Western countries lack experience in governing and are relatively short-sighted in their domestic and foreign policy propositions, and most of their policies are political slogans aimed at attracting popular support. As a result, the volatility of their policy stance will also be relatively large, which will lead to greater uncertainty in the handling of relations between these political parties with China, which will have a certain impact on our international relations.
In the economic field, driven by the conservative and xenophobic ideas of right-wing populist forces, the rise of anti-globalization ideology, economic nationalism and protectionism, the development process of economic globalization and regional integration has slowed down, hindering the development of global freedom in the direction of wider coverage, wider fields and higher standards, and the momentum of anti-globalization has become more prominent, which will lead to the reduction and slowdown of the global economy and cross-border investment flows, which further restricts the adjustment of the global value chain and the in-depth development of the international division of labor.
Trump said in an interview with the U.S. "Sunday Morning **" program on February 4 that if he is elected as the new U.S. ** in November, he will impose tariffs on China again, this time perhaps more than 60%. During Trump's tenure, driven by the "America First" policy, he launched a ** war against China and imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods in China. In recent years, Europe has successively introduced or tightened the foreign investment review framework, and strengthened the protective industrial strategy, which are all manifestations of the rise of protectionism. Populism has gradually penetrated into the fields of investment, industrial policy, public procurement and monetary policy in most Western countries, seriously affecting the normal development of economic and trade relations between China and the United States and China and the European Union.
As the war and technology war continue to heat up, we will not be able to obtain high-tech products from the West, so we need to replace them with products made in China. Biden wants to achieve full self-sufficiency in semiconductors, which will increase the cost of chips by 35% to 65%. In this regard, the WTO**, the world's science and technology will be decoupled into two independent Western and Chinese blocs, and the global GDP will be reduced by at least 5%, and the future growth prospects of developing economies will become increasingly uncertain.