After the year, the corn really fell.
This drop can be saidBoth expected and unexpected.
It is expected that because the weakness of corn after the year is also very clear, whether it is supply and demand or sentiment, or objective reality, how to look at corn is a **.
In particular, it is said that some of the grain sources have already had quality problems.
ButWhy is it unexpected?
According to the experience of old grains, corn generally has two characteristics after the year:
One is how to stand up.
Although everyone knows that the grain on the ground can't stand it, just like when the corn is just harvested and put on the market, no one is willing to sell it hastily, especially dry food.
But this yearAt the beginning of the year, the corn was directly **, and it can be said that there was no such action.
In fact, it is not nothing, but it is covered up.
Covered up by whom?
It was covered up by the ** grain in the hands of grain merchants.
In fact, there are not many people selling grain at the grassroots level now, and those who are really anxious have already sold it before the year, and they will not wait until the year after the year, and those who can wait until the end of the year will not be so anxious to sell it as soon as the new year begins, so the "strong" at the grassroots level still exists.
But the grain merchants couldn't hold on.
BecauseI was afraid that the corn would fall sharply, and the grain harvested in the early stage would be smashed in my hands, so I was in a hurry to sell the grain. That's why corn is in such a hurry.
The second characteristic is that there are often signs of declines.
I can't avoid the matter of lying on the ground, but judging from the ** of the past two years, there is often an omen, and it will not fall out of control.
ButThis year is different, the corn is a little out of control.
Corn began to be listed last year, and even fell more and more fiercely at the end of the year, if it were not for the later increase in reserves and the approaching Spring Festival, it was held to the bottom of the corn, it is difficult to say what will fall, at least at that time, many people thought that Northeast corn even had the risk of falling below 1 yuan.
WhileAfter the year, it seems that all the good things have suddenly failed, and ** has returned to the most dangerous time of the year before. So this is also the reason why this wave of ** makes people feel extra palpitations.
And the current ** can only be said to have just begun.
First, the selling pressure of corn will remain strong after the year.
Although there have been different opinions on the progress of grain sales before the year, the pressure after the year is still not small.
First, last year's corn production increased and the amount was larger than in previous years; Second, this year's Spring Festival is late, and the time left for selling grain is shorter than in previous years; The third is that it is unknown how much grain there is, but the weather is even more unpredictable, which poses a great risk to the ground grain.
So the pressure after the year can be said to be no less than the year before.
Second, the main body of grain collection still does not take action.
As a year ago, as soon as the corn fell, everyone was waiting and watching, and no one would come forward to harvest grain at this time. If the main body of grain collection does not make a move, the selling pressure will accumulate more and more, and in the end, it will be easy to smash the market.
Third, the policy cannot be supported.
Many people pinned their hopes on policies, such as the increase in reserves a year ago, which held up corn, and even appeared.
However, there are many reasons for the ** year ago, which cannot be attributed to the increase in reserves, and the situation faced before and after the year is different, so it cannot be generalized.
Therefore, the ** of corn is inevitable, but it is a question of how far it can fall.
How far can corn fall? Is there a risk of a big fall?
Lao Liang believes that there is this risk, especially the Northeast corn still exists. Because there are two factors that are uncontrollable, one is the mood and the other is the weather.
Either one gets out of control and could have a profound impact on corn.
So don't take it lightly, the corn crisis has not been resolved, which is also a kind of pain of market adjustment.
Think about last year's wheat, how it was from 16 fell to 14, how many cliff-like ** have been experienced in the middle, soThe center of gravity of corn will not be a simple process, and it will also go through repeated labor pains.
I am an old grain, focusing on analyzing the trend of food prices, welcome to pay attention.