Economy** Author: Yang Zhongyang.
On January 29, Geely Automobile unveiled its new model at Shougang Park. Photo by reporter Yang Zhongyang.
The picture shows the Jiangxi Gongqingcheng Photovoltaic and Hydrogen Storage Intelligent Complementary Demonstration Charging Station. Photo by Li Wenqi.
Compared with previous years, the Spring Festival in 2024 is relatively late, which creates a rare ** sales schedule for car companies. Some car companies may speed up the pace of launching new vehicles, or limit the time **, the competition in the new energy vehicle track is becoming more and more fierce, and the market knockout competition will be accelerated.
New models are intensively launched.
The first new car launch event in 2024 was robbed of the jackpot by Xpeng Motors. On January 1, Xpeng Motors' first MPV model, the X9, was launched, and a total of four models were launched. This is Xpeng Motors SEPA2The flagship model under the 0 Fuyao architecture is also the first super-intelligent driving seven-seater model that breaks the boundaries of MPV.
Xpeng X9 is not only a large seven-seat MPV, but also can be transformed into a super large four-seat SUV with one click, which is more comfortable to drive than MPV and more flexible than SUV. He Xiaopeng, founder and chairman of Xpeng Motors, said, "Xpeng X9 will firmly lock in the core needs of users at the level of 300,000 yuan to 400,000 yuan, and provide users with more practical and cost-effective choices while reducing the difficulty of user selection with the most valuable configuration difference." ”
On January 5, Geely's flagship pure electric sedan Galaxy E8 was officially launched, with a starting price of 17580,000 yuan. Although the top model reaches 22880,000 yuan, but the core product** is less than 200,000 yuan. Reminiscent of the ZEEKR 007** listed a week ago, it is also down-to-earth, and some industry insiders said that this means that Geely has regained the pricing power of domestic pure electric vehicles from the hands of "Bit".
In China's auto market, in the past, only two companies had pricing power over electric vehicles. One is Tesla, which has the power of a pioneer and a strong appeal in the global electric vehicle market. Any product that wants to enter the market of the Model 3 and Model Y cars must look at the faces of these two cars, and at the same time, be wary of their "freewheeling" price adjustments. The other is BYD, which has the advantages of a highly vertically integrated low-cost industrial chain such as batteries and electric drives, and continues to expand the scale of market sales by cutting prices to conquer the city.
On January 7, Dongfeng Nano 01 listing conference and Baicheng delivery ceremony were held. "The launch of Dongfeng Nano 01 is a redefinition of the national car and an advance in the national travel mode. Chen Meng, general manager of Dongfeng Nano Marketing Division, said that Dongfeng Nano is positioned in the 100,000-yuan market, paying attention to the rigid needs of most ordinary people, taking technology as the foundation, upgrading national cars, and being a real "new national force".
On January 25, the BMW Group announced the launch of the all-new BMW 5 Series in the Chinese market. This is the world's eighth-generation, domestically produced BMW 5 Series. The all-new BMW 5 Series will be launched in 12 models with both gasoline and electric (gasoline and electric versions) and "twin axles" (standard wheelbase and long wheelbase versions). Among them, the starting model has been "the same price of gasoline and electricity", leading the new trend of luxury brand pricing.
The all-new BMW 5 Series marks the beginning of a new era of intelligence for the best-selling BMW model. "With the launch of the BMW i5, the number of BEV products offered to Chinese customers has increased to seven, and the BMW Group's BEV products cover almost all major market segments. ”
As of January 31, more than 10 new models have been launched in the new energy vehicle market alone. "According to our incomplete statistics, there will be 202 new products on the market in China's auto market in 2024, of which 152 are new energy products, accounting for 75%. Wang Jun, president of Changan Automobile, said.
* The war is difficult to settle.
While the launch of new products of car companies is accelerating, the war is also intensifying. In January alone, more than 16 car companies such as Tesla, Ideal, Zeekr, Leap, Zhiji, and Xpeng lowered the prices of certain models or launched limited-time cash discounts, in order to gain more sales and market share.
It is worth noting that the ideal car that rarely participates in the "fight" has also joined the price reduction camp. On January 12, Li Auto officially announced a price cut, and all models were reduced by 30,000 yuan. Among them, the starting price of the ideal L7 is 28690,000 yuan, which fell to 300,000 yuan for the first time since listing.
According to the terminal research data of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, the overall market discount rate of passenger cars in early January was about 204%。The industry generally expects that the auto war will continue in 2024.
As new cars accelerate their launches, the trend of supply exceeding demand in the market is unlikely to change in the short term. Wang Du, assistant to the president of the China Automobile Dealers Association, believes that the first war in the auto market is only the surface, and behind it is the contradiction between oversupply and insufficient demand in the domestic automobile market.
The China Association predicts that the total sales of automobiles in China will be about 31 million in 2024. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was about 26.8 million units, the sales volume of commercial vehicles was about 4.2 million units, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was about 11.5 million units, and the export volume was about 5.5 million units. Some experts said that after deducting the export volume of finished vehicles, only about 25 million cars were sold in the domestic market, which is actually lower than the sales volume of the domestic automobile market in 2017.
Although most car companies have not completed their sales targets in 2023, judging from the published data, many car companies are still aggressive in 2024. For example, Li Auto will challenge the sales target of 800,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 113%. Behind these aggressive sales targets is further involution.
At the same time, the decline in the upstream raw materials of batteries has also brought room for vehicle companies to adjust prices. At present, lithium carbonate** has dropped from nearly 600,000 tons at the end of 2022 to 100,000 tons. "For every 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate**, the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour can be reduced by 50 yuan. Zhu Jiangming, founder, chairman and CEO of Leapmotor, said that with a 70 kWh battery pack, it can save 1750,000 yuan.
The competition is fiercer.
China's new energy vehicles are developing rapidly and on a large scale, but the whole industry is facing the problem of difficulty in making profits. An Qingheng, director of China's leading advisory committee, said, "At present, only Tesla, BYD, Ideal and Aion are profitable in four new energy vehicles, and most new energy vehicle companies are losing money." This situation needs to be improved urgently, otherwise the prosperity of the development of new energy vehicles will be difficult to sustain. ”
How to solve the difficulty of making a profit? Xu Changming, deputy director of the State Information Center, believes that expanding the scale of the product market and strengthening cost control are effective methods. Taking Tesla as an example, Tesla's total annual revenue in 2023 will reach 967$7.3 billion, an increase of 1879%；Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 149US$9.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%; Tesla, on the other hand, will deliver a total of 1.81 million new vehicles worldwide in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 38%. This means that its profit per bike is still as high as 82856 USD.
The automotive market will be more competitive this year, but sales represent future opportunities. Oliver Wyman Managing Partner Junyi Zhang said that only when companies reduce costs and expand their scale on the premise of sales will they have enough room to make profits. In addition, in the face of the domestic auto market war, he suggested that car companies should also speed up the breakthrough in overseas markets and enhance the competitiveness of the international market.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of China, said that the automobile market will show slow growth in 2024. From the enterprise level, on the one hand, it is necessary to do a good job in products, and on the other hand, it is necessary to improve operational efficiency through reform in order to increase profits.
The next two years will be the most important phase of change in the automotive industry, and the competition will be fiercer than you can imagine. Li Bin, chairman and CEO of NIO, said in the first internal letter of 2024, "We will face more powerful competitors, more and more excellent products, more fierce battles, more complex atmosphere, and a macro environment full of uncertainty." Every colleague should be mentally prepared, give up illusions, and face challenges head-on. While ensuring long-term investment in key core technologies, leading edge in technology and products, and on-time and high-quality delivery, NIO must ensure that its sales and service capabilities can cope with fierce market competition, so that 'sales energy' can be converted into sales as soon as possible." ”
* The difficulty of war and profitability is also intensifying the market knockout. At the beginning of January, it was rumored in the market that the R&D work of Gaohe Automobile, a new force in car manufacturing, was suspended, and the delivery was stopped by the leading supplier. Although Gaohe Automobile quickly issued a statement denying it and saying that "everything is operating normally", it has not completely dispelled the concerns of the outside world. In fact, since its establishment six years ago, Gaohe Automobile has been suffering from sales problems. According to public information, Gaohe Automobile's sales in 2021 and 2022 will be 4,237 and 4,349 respectively. Sales in the first 11 months of 2023 were only 4,265 units. It is difficult to see an improvement in sales, it is difficult to land investment funds, and the crisis of Gaohe is gradually emerging.
At its peak, 300 companies lined up to apply for car-making qualifications, and 62 new car-making forces released new energy strategies; At present, only 17 new automakers have sales, and most of them have annual sales of less than four figures. In the future, among the remaining 126 brands, the TOP10 car companies will account for more than 85% of the share, and the remaining 116 brands will share the remaining 15% of the share.