A-shares have risen sharply, and many people ask whether they have bottomed out and whether they can enter. This question is not a purely theoretical one, but a very practical one, which is related to the individual, and depends more on the individual's ability and risk appetite.
First of all, no decision can be made in isolation from reality. In sports, professional athletes do not do the same thing as ordinary amateurs. If ordinary people blindly imitate professional athletes and do difficult movements, they are prone to injury. Because ordinary people don't have that foundation at all, their professional training is not enough, they can't detach themselves from reality, they pursue coolness, and they hurt themselves in the end.
Secondly, most ordinary people simply do not have the qualities of a good trader and do not have the corresponding market experience, so they are simply unable to cope with market changes, outperform others, and obtain excess profits from the market. Excellent traders are crawling in the market all day long, and after natural screening and elimination, the rest are all with a certain amount of experience and quality, which ordinary people cannot compare at all. No one would choose to have a boxing match with Tyson in his prime, but there are always people who feel that they can beat the pros in **.
Most importantly, the only way for ordinary people to make money in the market is to join a major trend and leave before the trend is completely over. There is no other way. A market that is not the best is a zero-sum game; One of the best markets is the negative-sum game. What you earn is what others lose, so why should you make money? Only in a major trend of **, the cake continues to grow bigger, others eat meat, and ordinary people may drink soup.
How can you tell if it is currently a major trend? This also requires a "stupid approach" that suits the average person. No matter how good the method is, if it is extremely complex, requires various tools, and requires extremely high judgment ability, it is also unrealistic for ordinary people. The 200-day approach proposed by trading guru Paul Tudor Jones is one such fool's method. If a trend falls below 200 days, it cannot be regarded as a major trend, and ordinary people should stay away. This simple method, of course, has many flaws, and it is very likely to misjudge, miss opportunities, and get out early. However, this method will only miss, will not make a big mistake, will not lose badly, and can be regarded as very friendly to ordinary people. It needs to be precise and easy; It is necessary not only to seize the opportunity, not to miss it, but also not to make mistakes; There is no such way.
In fact, if this simple and easy "fool" method is adopted, ordinary people will leave A-shares as early as July 2021 and January 2022 at the latest. At that time, the CSI 300 was still about 5,000 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index was still 3,500 points, much higher than today. Later, even if it comes back temporarily, it will quickly stop loss and exit. Moreover, leaving the market, quiet and quiet, avoiding staring at the market every day, the mood fluctuates with the market, and the grief is overwhelming. This kind of psychological comfort can't be bought by money, not to mention that it's not easy to be in the market and look forward to untying it all day long. Hu Xijin, who has an iron mouth and steel teeth, can't stand such a market toss.
Ordinary people still have to be realistic, don't have unrealistic illusions, hope to defeat the opponent, escape to the top, and become a god in a battle.