[Text: Observer Network columnist Lin Yue].
Tonight's Chinese New Year's Eve dinner is eating in **? Can pre-made dishes be used as Chinese New Year's Eve dinner?
The end of the year and the beginning of the year are important observation points for the prosperity of the catering industry. Approaching the Spring Festival, the current Chinese New Year's Eve dinner is particularly hot, and some restaurant seats have been fully booked a week or two ago.
Restaurant people would never have imagined that their lives would be as exciting as a roller coaster ride in the past few years. The menacing epidemic is like a cold wave, which has frozen the entire industry, allowing many small and medium-sized catering people to return to the pre-liberation period overnight, some to do takeaway to save themselves, some to develop group catering business, some to dismiss employees to reduce expenses, and some to take precautions to lay out digitalization and the future.
Judging from the data, in the three years of the epidemic, in the second half of 2020, the cancellation of catering enterprises reached a peak, and in 2021, it improved slightly, and the total annual income was even the same as that in 2019 before the epidemic, and 1.2 million new catering enterprises were registered in 2022, but the cancellation also exceeded 800,000. Between the ups and downs, the catering industry has ushered in a completely liberalized 2023.
Chunjiang plumbing duck prophet, economic recovery catering first.
01.A strong recovery in the post-pandemic era.
In 2023, the long-suppressed emotions of ordinary people will be like beasts out of the cage and birds in flight, going out of the house, going to dinners, traveling, socializing, and meeting people who should and shouldn't be seen. The catering people know that this is the time for them to re-emerge from the rivers and lakes and turn over the salted fish, from the Chinese New Year's Eve dinner to the table.
Five. First, the eleventh week of the hot, the catering track reappeared blowout development, the industry growth rate was 12 percentage points higher than the retail growth rate of consumer goods, and the national catering income from January to November reached 47 trillion yuan, nearly 25 percentage points year-on-year, the scale of the industry has entered the era of five trillion yuan, and it is obviously not an exaggeration to describe the value of the catering industry with the traction of economic recovery.
After the epidemic was released, the listed catering companies benefited the most, and these leading brands were the first to feel the dividends brought by tourism and travel after surviving the cold winter. According to data released by the National Department of Finance, in the first three quarters of 2023, the total number of domestic tourists reached 367.4 billion, an increase of 15 over the same period last year800 million, a year-on-year increase of 755%；The total cost of traveling within the home is 369 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 over the previous year97 trillion yuan, an increase of 1144%。Among them, the number of travelers and expenses have increased compared with 2019 in the first week such as May Day and National Day, which means that the cultural tourism industry has taken the lead in returning to the pre-epidemic state, and catering, as an important basic service and people's livelihood demand, has also risen with the flow of a large number of people.
We see that Quanjude has ended its three-year loss, Jinling Hotel has achieved double growth in revenue and profit, and Naixue's tea sales can achieve a six-fold increase during the National Day. However, not all catering people have made a lot of money, on the one hand, the number of newly registered catering enterprises has increased by leaps and bounds, and on the other hand, there are the number of revocations and cancellations that are all over the country. In 2023, almost every new opening is 3At the same time as 5 stores, 1 store is closing. Zhengxin Chicken Chop, which was "disliked" by young people, has closed 10,000 stores in three years, and the originator of milk tea has closed its stores little by little, not to mention the vast number of self-employed restaurants that fight alone, and the keyword of struggling is still effective in the post-epidemic era.
Is it the inopportune birth of catering people, or is the catering industry full of ever-changing? Is it the ill-fated fate of the catering people, or is the catering track already rugged?
02.Who is the king of the volume kings.
While we are seeing a boom in the F&B sector, the real figure of declining per capita consumption is not deceiving.
In the first half of 2023, Haidilao's overall customer unit price dropped to 102 yuan from 105 yuan in the same period of 20229 yuan, not only relied on "subject three" to rush to the hot search, but also opened a precedent for restaurants to fish for people at the concert site, and even introduced hair washing services, using Dyson hair dryers, self-selected shampoos, and electric massage chairs, which not only killed peers but also forced professional hairdressers to death, so that consumers almost never mention the topic of food when talking about Haidilao; In the third quarter, the average order value of KFC and Pizza Hut decreased by 5% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, and Starbucks' data in the fourth quarter and full year of 2023 financial report showed that its average customer unit value fell by 3% year-on-year; Hey Tea and Nai Xue's tea announced a comprehensive price cut, and Cudi made the coffee nine yuan nine, with a total sales of more than 1.53 million cups in two weeks. Coco milk tea launched 5 yuan coffee, and Cudi's tea cat made 69 yuan milk tea, as the so-called seven inches you hit me, I will pinch the back of your neck.
The suave and elegant Hefu Lao Mian will open more than 200 new stores in 2023, setting a single-day revenue of more than 10 million, and many stores have entered the level of monthly revenue of one million, which is roughly on the same level as KFC and McDonald's, but it began to realize that selling noodles so expensive seems to be incompatible with this era, so it gradually lowered the overall ** by 20% to 30%, and expanded the product matrix within 30 yuan; Young Master Xi and Jia Guolong Chinabao are also working hard to tear off the high-end label; The rapid rise of cheaper Chinese burgers, Wallace and Tustin seem to have blossomed everywhere overnight, and the number of stores has exceeded that of McDonald's, the big brother who has worked in China for many years, although the "big brother" does not necessarily regard these "little brothers" as competitors, but for a time the capital has taken the initiative to embrace the Chinese burger brand, Limburgburg, Kenweiting, Sucking Zhiwei, Sirloin Forrest Gump These fresh names are accompanied by fresh categories and formats, and it seems that a world-class brand is just around the corner.
With the rise of live social e-commerce, the transparency of the catering industry is simply clearer than the water of Fuxian Lake.
Xiaolongkan "The first hot pot meal for 4 people in autumn" Douyin** price 320% off as long as 177 yuan; KFC "**SPA Chicken Chop Burger Zizi Yes Grilled Chicken Leg Burger OK Three-Piece Set" Douyin** price dropped by 186 yuan; The original price of the steakhouse is 268 yuan, and the price of "Selected Single Lunch**" Meituan ** is 420% off only 128 yuan. Consumers laughed, but the restaurant people really cried. With the cyclical fluctuations of agricultural and sideline products such as oil, salt, rice and noodles, meat, vegetables and poultry, there is great uncertainty in the operational challenges of catering enterprises.
The madness of the industry seems to continue, but which "volumes" are meaningful and valuable? How should you survive without rolling? These are the huge challenges in front of the catering people, if it is purely for the sake of traffic, it is easy to lose oneself, deviate from the essence of the catering industry, deviate from the original intention of catering consumption, and eventually lose customers and reputation, and will also put oneself in a situation from which there is no return.
03.Five hot words in the catering industry.
1.IPO & Financing.
According to the statistics of Lianshang.com, in the first half of 2023, 15 of the 16 listed catering companies achieved a significant year-on-year increase in revenue, of which only Helens experienced a year-on-year decline in revenue due to large-scale store closures, which shows that "it is better to survive the winter when there is surplus food at home", and the scale advantage and capital advantage are like the thick fat accumulated on the brown bear in the face of the cold winter, and the warm spring can be ushered in after surviving the winter of lack of resources.
The Matthew effect in the catering industry is becoming more and more obvious, and the situation of the stronger in the track has become the general trend. At the beginning of 2023, there was even news that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) would impose industry restrictions on the main board listing application under the approval system, specifically pointing out that the "red light industry" would not be considered, and the "red light industry" refers to food and catering.
In 2023, there are more than a dozen restaurant companies that have proposed IPOs, but only a few have passed them, such as TIMS Coffee, Ziyan Food, and Domino's. Over the past year, more of the hot money in the capital market has flowed to coffee and Chinese fast food, indicating that small, beautiful and brand-focused models are more likely to gain popularity. At the end of the day, the rush to finance expansion is not the only way for restaurant companies, as illustrated by the decadent performance of Nayuki's tea after its listing. The development of restaurant enterprises needs to find their own way, build and maintain their core advantages, and those brands that do a good job in basic skills and adhere to direct sales and refined management have the opportunity to go further and more steadily.
2.Consumption downgrade.
The epidemic has put most people in financial difficulties, and the economic downturn has led consumers to tighten their money, breaking one dollar into two flowers, and the pursuit of "high cost performance, high quality-price ratio, and high sentimental price ratio" has become a consumption principle in most people's minds. High cost performance, high quality-price ratio, and high emotional price ratio are not blindly low prices, the key is that on the basis of low prices, they also have good product quality, service experience and emotional value, that is, in the concept of consumers, if you can enjoy dishes and services that are not much different, then why should I spend more money? I want to make me feel worthwhile and happy. Coupled with the boost of various social e-commerce platforms, all kinds of discount coupons, coupons, and coupons, we even see a large number of young travelers who are willing to lie in their hotel rooms and order takeout, the data speaks for itself: during the May Day and National Day holidays in 2023, the number of orders delivered by Meituan to hotels increased by more than 30% year-on-year.
On the one hand, consumers who travel are cautious about consumption, on the other hand, restaurants need to fight for customer flow through ** and discounts, plus more and more high-end catering brands that were originally positioned in the middle and high-end restaurants are gradually putting down their bodies and reducing dimensionality, sacrificing profits for the sake of traffic, and the competition has reached an extremely fierce level, and you can enjoy a meal of 45 yuan per capita at Shanghai Disneyland, In the Internet celebrity scenic spot, the coffee of nine yuan and nine will always bring down the coffee of more than 20 yuan, and those fast food that bravely hit 3 yuan and 1 yuan will always focus on a hot scene of long queues.
The low-price strategy and the first war are powerful for mid-to-high-end brands and chain brands, and they are also short-term tactics with immediate results, because high profits and low sales will face decline, while small profits and quick sales mean survival. But how many F&B companies can withstand the long-term test of low profit margins?
3.Co-branded marketing.
According to the data of Red Meal.com, in the first three quarters of 2023, 19 tea brands carried out 243 co-branded marketing, with an average of 11 co-branded event, in addition to the rapid number of co-branding**, the field of co-branding is gradually extensive, luxury goods, animation, film and television, fashion, beauty, food, health products, etc., almost everything can be co-branded.
It is undeniable that co-branded marketing is a sharp blow to performance. The topic of perpetual motion machine Luckin let young people taste the taste of Moutai for the first time, and they began to feel that Moutai is not as unattainable as imagined, and the cat and mouse co-branded series even made the raw cheese latte sell 16 million cups a week; Heytea joins hands with Fendi, Xiyu Genshin Impact, King of Comedy, Barbie, etc., and uses luxury literary style to please young people and petty bourgeoisie at the same time; Nai Xue's tea co-branded "Fantesi"** sold more than 1.46 million cups on the first day, and more than 100,000 sets of co-branded thermos cups were shipped, and Nai Xuedong Ejiao milk tea topped the sales list for 6 consecutive days after its launch; Lu Ding Kee launched a joint campaign between Nike and MO&Co, and launched a special drink with 1664 Beer; Weilong Spicy Tiao and Xiaolongkan made a big "Dragon" New Year article, and took the lead in seizing the New Year's traffic ...... in the Internet celebrity cities of Chengdu and Changsha
This kind of "flash marriage" marketing method is an important strategy for restaurant companies to maintain the freshness of users, and it is also a low-cost innovation, which requires sufficient insight into the consumer circle, target group and popular IP, and also needs to find the fit between the two parties in terms of cultural values, consumption scenes, brand elements, etc., and find more possibilities in derivatives other than products. On the other hand, co-branded marketing is easy to become a "short-lived" phenomenon, and it is very important to create short-term popularity, if the co-branded object is not highly related to its own brand, it is unrealistic to expect long-term sustained popularity, and consumers will also have a sense of fatigue in the face of dazzling various co-branding, so the future co-branded marketing will gradually become rational and return to the essence of the product.
4.Sea.
Since the domestic market is so volatile, a large number of catering brands have turned their attention overseas. However, it is too early to call the second growth curve for catering companies to open overseas markets, because most catering companies are still in the stage of crossing the river by feeling the stones when opening stores overseas, and there are very different regulations and policies in different regions and countries overseas, and there is also a cross-border gap in raw materials.
In 2023, a large number of restaurant companies will go abroad, and it is not an exaggeration to call it the first year of Chinese catering going overseas. Xiabu Xiabu has a high-profile entry into Singapore; Zhu Guangyu pointed to the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, South Korea, the United States and Canada, and hot pot brands such as Haidilao, Xiaolongkan, and Happy Lamb continued to conquer overseas; Zhang Liang and Yang Guofu continue to popularize what Chinese Malatang is to the world; Mixue Bingcheng opened a store in Australia to make a queue effect of snapping up the first fruit mobile phone; Master Xi's 200-square-meter store in Canada can achieve an annual income of 30 million yuan; Cudi Coffee entered Japan, but it is still ...... beautifulAlthough there are some cases of unfavorable teachers, most of the scenes presented by restaurant companies going overseas are good.
The development speed of catering enterprises in overseas markets is theoretically not as fast as that of domestic ones, but the overseas market must be a blue ocean in the future. First of all, there are more than 60 million overseas Chinese and groups of outbound travelers, workers, and students, and this group of "homesick" consumers is the easiest to find memories of their hometown through food; Secondly, the strong export of Chinese culture has also attracted a large number of foreigners' attention and interest in Chinese food, and the national tide and new Chinese style restaurants are as novel as KFC McDonald's that entered China in the 90s in the eyes of foreigners. Dishes that are easy to standardize and addictive, such as hot pot and tea, will become an important feature for restaurant companies to go overseas, and another key to developing overseas markets is the reserve and training of management talents.
5.Pre-made dishes.
Whether it is the first or the local, have introduced relevant policies to support the development of prefabricated dishes, the emergence of prefabricated dishes has also greatly improved the operational efficiency of the first chain of catering enterprises, a large number of raw materials, dishes can be pre-industrialized manufacturing through the kitchen, through the logistics network flow to their own terminal stores, prefabricated dishes to the value of the B end is huge, with the improvement of technology, the standardization and innovation of prefabricated dishes, it is no exaggeration to say that it is an important foundation for the development of chain restaurants.
But the status quo is skinny, because there is no relevant industry standards and supervision, the prefabricated food industry is still mixed, compared with takeaways, casual snacks and convenience foods, C-end consumers are not interested in prefabricated dishes, the majority of parents resist prefabricated dishes entering the campus, Dongfang Selection has also criticized prefabricated dishes in the live broadcast, and even some high-end catering companies dare not advertise that they are using prefabricated dishes, in the topics of food safety, health and nutrition, prefabricated dishes always seem to be on the side. However, from 2022, various provinces and cities have begun to introduce management mechanisms related to prefabricated dishes to standardize the entry thresholds and conditions of production enterprises, and it is believed that with the implementation of these measures, the production process of prefabricated dishes will become more and more transparent, high-standard, and traceable, and can even become a powerful business branch of catering enterprises. For the brand of prefabricated dishes, in addition to strengthening the business link with the B-side, it is necessary to redefine the user portrait of the C-end, make home cooking and dining scenes, not overemphasize convenience and low price, and output more rituals, healthy nutrition and home dining atmosphere, and carefully polish product categories to detonate the C-end market.
A pre-made food counter in a supermarket.
04.The future has come, only change remains the same, this is an industry where some people are happy and some are worried, there are countless entrepreneurs who have entered the outlet, some are proud and some are disappointed, and catering is also an industry with low user loyalty. In 2024, the catering industry will maintain a state of continuous growth, but the cruelty of competition between restaurant companies will not decrease but increase, the key is whether restaurant companies can step on the beat of the trend and grasp the cyclical nature of the trend and industry evolution.
First of all, social catering will lead the trend, in addition to dining, consumers have an increasing demand for gathering, communication, interaction, leisure, and decompression. For example, Hutaoli integrates **, performance, food and wine, and has become a favorite platform for literary and artistic youth; GAGA Xianyu focuses on tea and light food in the social space, focusing on a social experience place of "people-to-people connection"; More and more restaurants are adding special performances such as singing and dancing to enrich the dining atmosphere and topics when consumers dine. This also gave birth to the birth of the era of compound catering, Michelle Bingcheng began to sell fried skewers, hometown chickens opened taverns, tea and beauty sold coffee, and the cross-border integration of the catering industry and other industries has also become an emerging trend. For example, the integration of catering and tourism, culture and entertainment industries, and new formats and concepts such as Bistro taverns, book bars, camping bars, special catering towns, and catering theme parks are in the limelight.
Secondly, community catering will gradually become the protagonist, especially after the core business district of the city becomes more and more saturated, we see that Haidilao, Xibei, Yonghe Dawang are all laying out community business, Nancheng Xiang, Yuan Ji Yun Dumpling, Guoquan Shihui, Ziguangyuan and other focus on taking root in the community but live a sound and impressive life. The so-called "where the consumer is, we are there", which is a "community canteen" format, aiming at three meals a day and family meals for community groups, focusing on the concept of "takeaway + community operation + live broadcast traffic conversion + full-time operation". In other words, consumers in the vicinity can be satisfied with what they want to eat throughout the day, with a complete range of categories, suitable for the tastes of all kinds of people, from breakfast to supper, and store rents are lower than those in the core business district, which is a promising business model.
In addition, digitalization is an inevitable development path for restaurant companies, and it is also an important means to maintain user stickiness. Hefu Lao Mian will have more than 20 million members in 2023, and the "Hefu Club" mini program not only opens up the synchronization of omni-channel member data, but also realizes the full coverage of dine-in ordering, take-out ordering, retail**, etc. It can be said that Hefu Lao Mian has achieved benign interaction and links with members with the help of the digital system, which is directly reflected in the figure of "member consumption ratio as high as 65%", which can be described as one of the benchmarks for restaurant companies to build user stickiness. In addition to the value of digitalization in terms of user stickiness, there is also a lot of room for development in the first chain and store operation, such as Heytea for raw material configuration traceability to create a safer raw material quality system, independent research and development of intelligent tea machine, covering the whole process of the store, improving the efficiency and standardization of product production. All in all, large-scale chain restaurant enterprises need to use digitalization to reduce costs and increase efficiency when they develop to a certain extent, but digitalization burns money, and business volume is an important basis for calculating the input-output ratio.
The catering track is infinitely beautiful, but there are also undercurrents, and there are opportunities and difficulties behind the extreme rolling, which seems to make the catering people see no end at a glance. But the wheel of history is unstoppable, the future has come, only change remains the same, perhaps only by maintaining love, hard running, in order not to forget the original intention, to always.