The Spring Festival is the last tough battle for brands.
Especially this year's Spring Festival is in February, which is relatively late, which lengthens the cycle of the New Year's Festival. Many brands have just finished playing Double 11 and turned around and entered the New Year's goods campaign.
This year's New Year's scuffle is a bit specialFirst, online e-commerce sales are insufficient, and it is difficult to achieve GMV growth without spending money; The second is that the price is generally broken offline, either to make an oversized or ***
These phenomena are all related to lower consumption expectations. Many brands of New Year's goods began to be dumped by dealers from the beginning of January, and the demand for gifts was obviously insufficient. However, there are also categories that have shown strong growth, such as some small fortunate categories that can provide a quality-price ratio.
Few people in the market analyze the New Year Festival, but as the most important gift scene for Chinese, the New Year Festival can not only show the changes in consumer demand in recent years, but also show which categories and brands have strong channel capabilities.
In order to gain insight into the consumption trend of the New Year's Festival and help the brand layout marketDrain goldJoin forcesMagic Mirror, win nowThe online and offline comprehensive grasp analysis was carried out, and the popular categories of the previous New Year's Festival were deeply interpreted around the brand pattern, product selling points and other dimensions, and the following is a specific analysis:
1.The online sales of the basic New Year's Festival are generally not as good as last year, but all categories have achieved high growth on Douyin; The sales of casual snacks, instant sausages, and room temperature dairy products fluctuated greatly during the New Year's Festival, and the sales of rice, flour, grain and oil were not much different from usualIn offline channels, consumers generally prefer room temperature milk, instant sausages, and plant-based protein drinks.
2.Category situationAmong the casual snacks, the sales of roasted nuts performed the best, and gift boxed nuts were the main products；The cured meat gift box in the instant sausage contributed more sales; In the beverage track, ready-to-drink tea and plant-based protein drinks, which focus on health labels, are growing rapidly；Among dairy products, yogurt contributed a large amount.
Brand patternThe online market of snacks and roasted goods is supported by Three Squirrels, Baicaowei, and BESTORE, and the offline market is led by Qiaqia; Emperor Shanghuang, Jin Zi, and Uncle Yang occupy the top position of the first fast sausage, and the offline market is led by Shuanghui, Meilin, and Jinluo; In the beverage track, Oriental Leaves led the ready-to-drink tea, and six walnuts led the plant-based protein drinks; Dairy products are monopolized by the two giants of Mengniu and Yili.
4.Data dimension: The data capture time is from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023, and the Spring Festival time period (January to February) of the two years is split and compared with the non-Spring Festival time period. Online platforms include**+ Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin; The change in the market share of offline brands only shows the brands to which the top 10 products belong; The annual goods nodes are collectively referred to as CNY.
Let's first look at the sales of important New Year's goods**.
It is not difficult to find that leisure snacks are not only far ahead in annual sales, but also extremely popular in the New Year's goods node, far higher than other categories.
This is because the leisure snack products are diverse and rich in taste, which is not only a good match for the New Year's party, but also the main force of festive gift boxes to visit relatives and friends.
In 2023, the average monthly sales of CNY's key categories Tao, JD.com and Douyin.
During the New Year's Festival, dairy products and instant sausages performed better online, and bacon and sausage gift boxes in instant sausages were more favored by Chinese people.
Rice and noodles, grains, oils, and beverages** are mostly hoarded attributes, and online sales during the New Year Festival are not much different from usual.
Different from online, consumers are more inclined to purchase dairy products and plant-based protein drinks such as room temperature milk and room temperature yogurt during the CNY period.
This may be due to the fact that the unit price of dairy products does not fluctuate much online and offline, and consumers buy more locally when they visit relatives and friends.
Offline categories that are more popular with consumers than usual during the 2022 and 23 CNY periods.
Next, we focus on the four major categories of leisure snacks, instant sausages, beverages and dairy products that are favored by consumers during the CNY period in 2023 and 2022.
Let's take a look at the sales performance of casual snacks during the CNY period.
Among the three major online platforms, the sales of casual snacks (roasted nuts, candied fruits, dried meat, dried meat) during the New Year Festival far exceeded other categories.
Among them, the Tao system is the main battlefield of casual snacks, with sales exceeding 5 billion yuan during the CNY period in 2023; Douyin has the fastest growth rate, with sales soaring by 80% year-on-year6%。
The sales of casual snacks during the online platform CNY period and the same period last year.
Roasted nuts
Next, we will focus on the nuts with the best sales performance in casual snacks to see the brand pattern and regional sales performance.
The CR10 brand sales of roasted nuts during the two-year CNY period of the Tao series and the year-on-year increase.
Judging from the sales performance of the CR10 brand of the Tao system, the three-legged trend of three squirrels, baicaowei and BESTORE has continued for two years.
Among them, the gift box and gift packaging of the three squirrels are extremely rich, not only with the New Year gift box full of New Year's flavor, but also with a new way to launch a healthy nut gift box for pregnant women to seize the market segment.
Changes in the market share of roasted nuts brands during the CNY period.
In the offline market, the market share of the top 10 commodities has been monopolized by Cha Cha and Three Squirrels for two consecutive years.
Among them, the old domestic brand Qiaqia not only laid out the product line, launched the Qiaqia nut gift and snack gift packages such as the Le Gift Gift Box and the Jili Gift Box, but also actively carried out the New Year's Festival activities to expand the brand influence.
Judging from the sales situation in offline areas,During the Chinese New Year Festival, the market share of offline roasted nuts varies greatly among regions, and consumers in Eastern, Northwest and South China have relatively large demand for roasted nuts.
Regional market share of roasted nuts in the leisure snack category in 2023.
Let's look at the sales performance of instant sausage in the instant food category.
The sales of instant sausages during the online platform CNY period and the same period last year.
Let's look at the online first, during the CNY period, instant sausages sold 10 billion yuan in Tao, Jingdong and Douyin for two consecutive years, and sales increased year-on-year in Jingdong and Douyin.
The sales of the CR10 brand of instant sausage during the two-year CNY period of the Tao Department and the same period last year.
Further focus on the brand CR10 pattern of instant sausage in the Tao system.
You can see itThe emperor, Jin Zi, and Uncle Yang have all occupied the top position of the first instant sausage for two consecutive years.
Among them, Jinhua's Jinhua ham will launch a gift package of imported ham, sliced ham gift box, and semi-finished dish gift package at the end of 2023, sounding the horn of the New Year's Festival;
At the beginning of this year, the emperor shouted the slogan of "choose the emperor if you eat lap-mei for the New Year, and choose the emperor for the New Year", and launched nearly 10 kinds of cured meat gift boxes with different ** belts set up for different scenes; Uncle Yang focuses on Sichuan-style sausage and bacon, which is favored by consumers with its unique spicy and spicy taste.
Changes in the market share of instant sausage brands during the CNY period in the offline two years.
In the offline market, people generally tend to buy leading brands in the industry such as Shuanghui, Meilin, and Jinluo.
Among them, Shuanghui has a dominant position in sales by virtue of its strong new product iteration ability and offline channel advantages. The top 10 products in terms of market share during the CNY period in 2023 all belong to Shuanghui, and the products include traditional hams with different grams, as well as Taiwanese and corn-flavored hams with different flavors.
From the perspective of regional sales, consumers in Northwest, Central and North China have more demand for instant sausage during the CNY period.
This may be because consumers in the southwest and northeast regions have the habit of marinating bacon and sausages by themselves during the Chinese New Year, and the taste also has distinct regional characteristics, so the demand for buying instant sausages is small.
Regional market share of instant sausage in the instant food category in 2023.
Let's start with the performance of drinks during CNY.
Among the three major online e-commerce platforms, the beverage sales of JD.com and Douyin have shown a steady year-on-year upward trend, of which Douyin has surged by 149 year-on-year10%, the fastest growth rate.
Online platform CNY during the beverage sales and year-on-year growth.
Next, we will focus on the sub-categories of ready-to-drink tea and plant-based protein beverages that are more popular with consumers during the CNY period.
Judging from the sales performance of the Amoy ready-to-drink tea CR10 brand for two consecutive years, Nongfu Spring and Vita have sold more than 2 billion yuan during the CNY period for two consecutive years, and the sales volume has not fluctuated much.
The sales of the CR10 brand of ready-to-drink tea during the two-year CNY period of the Tao Department and the year-on-year growth.
From the perspective of products, Yuanqi Forest's low-sugar milk tea and Suntory's sugar-free oolong tea are the main forces driving brand sales.
This shows that with the improvement of Chinese people's health awareness, the penetration rate of low-sugar, sugar-free and other healthy labels continues to increase. In the future, low-sugar and sugar-free beverages that meet the health needs of consumers are the trend.
offline market,The market share of the top 10 ready-to-drink tea products has been led by Nongfu Spring's tea and Oriental Leaf for two consecutive years.
Among them, the market share of Oriental Leaves increased greatly, with a year-on-year increase of 490%。As a strong single product in the sugar-free tea category, Oriental Leaf has been selling single bottles for a long time in the past, but at the beginning of this year, the brand also launched gift boxes to seize the New Year's gift market, accelerating the pace of impacting the 10 billion market.
Changes in the market share of ready-to-drink tea brands during the two-year CNY offline period.
From the perspective of regional sales, South China and Northeast China lead the country. This may be due to the long history of tea culture in South China and a wide audience, while the Northeast region is in the period of central heating, and ready-to-drink tea to moisten and quench thirst is more popular.
Regional market share of ready-to-drink tea in the beverage category in 2023.
Let's look at the sales performance of plant-based protein beverages.
The CR10 brand sales of plant-based protein drinks during the two-year CNY period of the Tao Department and the same period last year.
Look firstIn the online market, in the CR10 pattern of Tao plant-based protein beverage brands, six walnuts, oatly and Fino ranked in the top three for two consecutive years.
From the product point of view, the six or six walnut New Year cans launched by the six walnuts are down-to-earth and full of gift attributes, which is the main force to drive the sales of the brand during the CNY period; Oatly and Yongpu Coffee jointly launched a New Year's gift box to boost sales.
In the offline market, six walnuts have led the way with a market share of more than 20% for two consecutive years, coconut tree, Lulu (Chengde) followedAmong them, Lulu's market share increased significantly, up 1 year-on-year29%。
Changes in the market share of plant-based protein beverage brands during the two-year CNY offline period.
From the perspective of regional sales, consumers in southwest China have a large demand for plant-based protein beverages. This may be related to dietary preferences, with the southwest region led by Sichuan and Chongqing preferring heavy salt and heavy spicy, and plant-based protein drinks are a good helper for relieving spiciness.
Regional market share of plant-based protein beverages in the beverage category in 2023.
The sales of the three mainstream platforms on dairy products are rising year-on-year, of which Jingdong's sales exceed 2 billion and are the largest, and Douyin's sales have increased by 83% year-on-year60%, the fastest growth rate.
Online platform CNY sales of dairy products during the period (100 million yuan) and year-on-year.
Let's first look at the sales of pure milk at room temperature.
During the two-year CNY period of the Tao system, the CR10 brand sales of room temperature pure milk increased year-on-year.
In the online market, Mengniu and Yili ranked first, and their sales during the CNY period ranked among the top two on the Tao platform for two consecutive years.
This was followed by the adoption of a cow, which led the growth with the stomach-friendly A2-casein pure milk.
In the offline market, the market share of the top 10 commodities is still monopolized by the two giants Mengniu and Yili.
Among them, Telunsu and Jindian are the high-end brands of Mengniu and Yili respectively, and the high-end brands have strong gift attributes, large market share and fast growth during the CNY period.
Changes in the market share of room temperature pure milk brands during the two-year CNY offline period.
From a regional point of view, consumers in Southwest, Central and Northwest China have more demand for room temperature pure milk during the CNY period.
This may be due to the geographical location affecting consumer preferences, that is, the western region is close to the domestic milk source, pure milk is more recognized as a traditional beverage in the local area, and it is suitable for personal use and visiting relatives and friends during the Chinese New Year, so the market share is high.
Regional market share of room temperature pure milk in the dairy category, 2023.
Finally, let's look at the sales of room temperature yogurt.
The CR10 brand sales of room temperature yogurt during the two-year CNY period of the Tao Department and the same period last year.
In the online market, judging from the sales performance of the CR10 brand of Amoy room temperature yogurt, the sales of Yili, Mengniu and Adopt a Cow have always ranked among the top three in the Amoy series during the CNY period for two consecutive years.
WhileIn the offline market, the market share of the top 10 commodities has been monopolized by Ambrosi, Moslian and Chunzhen for two consecutive years.
Among them, Ambrosi's market share is more than 45%, accounting for the absolute top position; The market share of Moslian and Chunzhen decreased slightly year-on-year.
Changes in the market share of room temperature yogurt brands during the CNY period in the offline two years.
From the perspective of regional sales, the proportion of different regional cities during the New Year Festival varies greatly, similar to room temperature pure milk, East China, Central China and Northwest China are the main markets for room temperature yogurt.
Regional market share of ambient yogurt in the dairy category in 2023.
Times have changed, but people's perception of New Year's goods has not changed much.
The mainstream categories are still snacks and nuts, instant sausages, dairy products and beverages, which are just needed as a meal for reunions and gifts for family visits.
However, it can be seen that although the category has not changed, the products have been iterated, such as from sugar to 0 sugar, from milk to plant milk, the products are becoming healthier and healthier on the one hand, and more and more subdivided on the other hand, even if the New Year's goods in the sinking market are also in line with the first-line market.
Although there are certain fluctuations in the New Year's goods market this year, it can be seen that there are still opportunities for cost-effective brands and small fortunate categories.