Kunpeng Project
Is the property "muddled" or "sensible" now? Listen to what Li Ka-shing has to say
Author: Vertical and Horizontal Markets.
A reader told the author about his own experience of buying a house.
He said that at the end of 2021, in order to buy a 120-square-meter house, after negotiation with the landlord and real estate agent, he actively gathered the down payment and prepared to sign the contract. But what he didn't expect was that the landlord didn't come on the day of the appointed time, asked him to come quickly, and forgot to bring his ID card. In this way, he never saw the landlord again.
After listening to the agent's inquiry, the landlord felt that the person who bought the house negotiated the price quickly, and he felt that the ** was not low. But the buyer's friend did want to buy this house, and then found the owner through the intermediary to negotiate, at first the parking space was packaged, and the furniture was not needed, but the landlord still disagreed, and then simply withdrew the ** listing, saying that he was not in a hurry to sell the house for the time being.
The house was not bought, and due to the conflict with his girlfriend's family, he finally bought a house and got married, of course, there is no need to worry. This is the Spring Festival in 2024, an agent recommended a house to her, coincidentally, this 120-square-meter house is listed again**, but**Compared with 2 years ago, it is more than 8,000 square meters lower, and when converted, it is about close to 35%.
This reader is a little confused, he doesn't know why his house's ** has dropped so much. He also doesn't know if he should buy a house now. What he doesn't know, of course, is why are homeowners still selling their homes at a discount, despite the fact that house prices have fallen so much? Why don't they wait for prices to pick up before selling?
Honestly, the reader's experience is very similar to yours. However, the market conditions you encounter are not an isolated case, but a general phenomenon.
According to the agency's latest data, the average price of second-hand housing in 100 large and medium-sized cities across the country is 1530,000 euros, down -056%, down -3 year-on-year96%。It is worth noting that both first-tier and second- and third-tier cities** have shown a continuous downward trend, with 22 consecutive months of decline on an annualized basis.
In addition, in the latest data released by the Bureau of Statistics in January 2024, the first-tier cities that the property market was once proud of also performed poorly. Compared with the previous month, the second-hand housing that best reflects the real situation of the market **continued**, of which Shanghai -08%, Guangzhou-12%, Shenzhen-16%, Beijing -07%, especially in Shenzhen, the decline has increased significantly compared with the previous month, and there is a trend of acceleration. You must know that these four first-tier cities, after the property market policy was relaxed three times in September last year, has not stopped the market decline, which is undoubtedly an impact on market confidence.
However, there is an illusion in the market.
According to official data, not only will the number of second-hand housing transactions increase by more than 40% nationwide in 2023, but the second-hand housing transaction volume in many cities will also double in January 2024. Theoretically speaking, the volume comes first in the price, and the volume rises, indicating that the market is hot, which should cause *** But as you can see, the second-hand housing price has lasted for nearly two years, and there is still no sign of stopping the decline.
It is not difficult to analyze the reason, just find a few friends who buy and sell houses, or even ask real estate agents. There are only 3 factors:
On the one hand, the seller is in dire need of cash, the economy is in crisis, and he needs to cash out the property to turn the situation around;
Secondly, the seller wants to change the house, although the price of the house is low, but the ** of buying a new house has also declined, and the price is almost lower when selling the house;
Third, they don't see any hope of a recovery in house prices, which is actually increasing. The reason is that housing prices have been adjusted for more than two years, and history is no longer there, they feel that this is not reasonable, and they are worried about repeating the mistakes of the Japanese real estate bubble bursting in the 90s of the last century in the long-term continuous adjustment.
Regardless of what kind of factor it is, it is rare to hear that there are houses with higher *** basically discounted**, but it is just a comparison of who has the largest price reduction.
From a psychological point of view, this is"The barrel effect"Because in this market, there are so many people who urgently need to buy a house, when there are more people who want to cash out and more people who want to sell, they can only quote a lower ** than everyone else, so as to attract customers.
When the seller gradually forms a consensus, as long as there is sincerity to sell the house, they will not give the lowest price, but only reduce the price, which is why the surrounding housing prices continue to refresh the old low psychological reason. The data reflects that the average price of second-hand housing in the country has been for 22 consecutive months**.
Will it continue**? It has to be said that in China, measures to stimulate the property market have been introduced, but the views of all sectors of society are not the same. Some people say that with the arrival of the peak season of property market transactions, the market should stop falling and stabilize, and then gradually recover. But there are also those who say that the market has not yet **, at least compared with the expectations of home buyers, there is still a certain lag, and it is possible that it will fall for another two years. Which side is more reliable?
If we look at it from a different perspective, from the perspective of property sales, is it a good time to sell a home? The so-called good time actually means that although it is compared with the past, it may continue to be in the future, so it is less harmful to sell now. On the contrary, if it rises in the future, it will naturally lose. With the previous reader's question, now the sale of the house at a discount is"Confused"Still"Clever"？If ordinary people have limited vision, you might as well take a look at Li Ka-shing, who has been the richest man in China for 15 consecutive years, on the future direction of the property market.
First, let's take a look at why Li Ka-shing is highly regarded in the real estate world. People who care about the property market know that Li Ka-shing entered the real estate industry in the 50s of the last century and found the first pot of gold, and then, more and more people entered the real estate industry, which is the national property market"The founder", in the shared area and in the house period is quite a lot"Achievement"All of this is the result of his unique understanding of the real estate industry. It all stems from his unique understanding of the real estate industry. Of course, we are more concerned about his visionary approach to real estate investment.
According to relevant reports, Li Ka-shing is good at buying low and selling high, and is good at speculating on land to make a lot of money, such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai and many other cities have his figure, after years of operation, several pieces of land even with 40-50 times the ** realization, known by the industry"Generals"。The most surprising thing is that he practiced"Good harvest", proposed"Don't win the last copper plate"Li Ka-shing's explanation for this is: when you reach the highest point, everyone wants to withdraw, but you can't withdraw.
In fact, the Li Ka-shing family still uses this theory to this day. Just as in the second half of 2023, the Hong Kong property market is in a serious depression, and the Li family announced a seven-fold discount on the real estate, attracting 30,000 people to rush to buy, creating a legend of hot sales against the market and recovering a large amount of funds. We know that since the second half of last year, the Hong Kong property market has been in a downward channel. If we do the math, you're making a smart decision.
As for"Sell your home at a discount"phenomenon, exactly"Confusion"Still"Being smart is mistaken by being smart"？In fact, Li Ka-shing said it very bluntly. The situation facing the development of the world economy is very complex, everyone is facing low growth, and no one is immune. Not to mention that housing prices are already at a high level, the possibility of housing prices facing overhaul in the next few years increases, if the down payment is sufficient, you can also pay in installments, the purchase of self-occupation is not a big problem, but do not speculate, the developer's high debt must end. His words are indeed very reasonable, but many people misunderstand them, and there are at least three meanings:
First of all, Li Ka-shing's understanding of the law of economic development is very accurate, and he believes that the increasing pressure on economic development is based on the fact that he has done business in many countries in the world and understands the real side of the economy. There are reasons for the lack of development momentum of their own, and there are also restrictions caused by the restrictions of various countries, the economy is not good, the general environment is not good, how can the property market be good?
Secondly, he is convinced that real estate ** is at an all-time high and needs to be adjusted. In this context, he mentioned that developers mainly in the mainland have ended their high debt, and the leverage ratio is generally more than 80% (the world average is generally less than 40%-50%, and Hong Kong is only 40%), which will pose a risk to the financial system, but he also expects the country to reduce the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises, that is, to implement it for two years"Three red lines"Regulation. Three red lines"The regulation has been in place for two years.
Once the capital leverage is reduced, real estate companies will not be able to finance, they will have no money to buy land, and the land price will be lowered, which will affect the best expectations of new and second-hand houses. Real estate companies have no money and instinctively want to survive, so they can only rely on discounts, which in turn leads to the new housing market and eventually the entire market. Li Ka-shing's logical judgment on the direction of the property market is that he knows best about the manipulation behavior of producers, so the deleveraging caused by market changes is naturally what he is most worried about, which is also inevitable.
Finally, buying a house and selling a house has been made very clear. If it is a self-occupation need that has improved due to marriage and schooling, and you have funds in hand, you should buy and buy, so you don't have to worry about the ups and downs, and it won't change hands for a while anyway. As for speculation, at least in the next few years, it is resolutely not optimistic, to be honest, if you don't plan to stick to it for a long time, it is better to get rid of it early, at least the cost of capital is saved. As for what will happen in two years, just look at your family's ** when the time comes.