This week, the market has adjusted, and pessimistic expectations continue to be released. For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 619%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 806%, GEM down 785%。The net inflow of northbound funds this week was 993.7 billion yuan, with 4 consecutive days of inflow, the current position of A-shares has a high cost performance.
In terms of sectors, the banking sector has performed relatively well this week. On the one hand, against the backdrop of no interest rate cut in January, banks' net interest margins were protected; On the other hand, the current market risk appetite is at a low level, risk aversion prevails, and banks, as high-dividend assets, may be more favored by investors due to the support of "good start" performance.
In terms of funds, ETFs on the floor increased again this week, and broad-based index ETFs maintained a large net inflow trend, which supported A-shares. As of February 2, the total net inflow of ** ETFs was about 40 billion yuan. As the market valuation has reached a historical bottom, long-term funds have accelerated the allocation of ETFs, with a total net inflow of more than 160 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, and the net inflow in January hit a new high in a single month since August last year.
In terms of policy, policies such as capital market, real estate, and state-owned enterprise reform continue to ferment, and specific measures are gradually implemented. In terms of the capital market, from the 29th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) further optimized the securities lending mechanism, completely suspended the lending of restricted shares, and restricted the efficiency of securities lending, which reflects the concept of "investor-oriented", helps to create a fair market environment, and prevents insider trading, market manipulation and other violations.
In terms of real estate, the recent optimization of the property market purchase restriction policy in Guangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai and other first- and second-tier cities in China, and the relaxation of the housing purchase policy have successively played a positive impact on the destocking of the real estate market. At the same time, due to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's promotion of the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism at the end of last month, the possibility of further market easing this month is high.
In terms of the reform of state-owned enterprises, on the 29th, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) implemented the specific assessment reform plan for central enterprises, and proposed that this year it will fully implement the "one enterprise and one policy" assessment for first-class enterprises, sign a personalized business performance responsibility letter, and guide enterprises to strive to achieve high-quality development.
On the news side, this week is the final disclosure window for the 2023 performance forecast of listed companies. As of February 1, 2,781 listed companies have disclosed annual performance forecasts, of which 1,158 companies reported good news, accounting for 4164%。Among them, the performance forecast of beauty care, textile and apparel, building decoration and other industries is in the forefront of year-on-year growth.
Overseas, the Fed's interest rate meeting was hawkish, and expectations of a rate cut in March were frustrated. On January 31, local time, the Federal Reserve held its first interest rate meeting in 2024 and paused interest rate hikes for the fourth consecutive time as scheduled, maintaining the U.S. federal ** target interest rate at 525%-5.50% on the level. The Fed chair said that the FOMC rate may be at the peak of the current cycle, but more evidence is needed to prove that inflation has been contained, and most members expect that interest rates may be cut multiple times this year, but do not think that rate cuts will start in March, and plan to start in-depth discussions on balance sheet issues in March. The weakening of interest rate cut expectations in March may suppress global** market sentiment and macro liquidity in the short term.
In terms of strategic allocation, in the short term, pay attention to sectors with policy guidance and performance forecasts. Since late January, the steady growth policy has been further increased, which is good for the margins of the A** field. Until fundamentals improve and the overall risk appetite of the market recovers, the high-dividend strategy is still expected to continue to prevail. In the medium and long term, we continue to pay attention to some sectors that have over-fallen in the early stage but the industry trend is improving.
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