EIA**, U.S.** and natural gas production set to set new records in 2024 and 2025.
U.S. and natural gas production set to hit new records in 2024 and 2025, despite growing fears that the shale revolution that fueled the U.S. energy boom is over.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its energy outlook report on TuesdayU.S. oil production will average 13.2 million barrels per day this yearIt will increase to 13.4 million barrels next year。This figure surpasses the estimated 12.9 million b/d estimated in 2023, which is a record number in itself and surpasses pre-pandemic levels.
At the same time, dry gas production will reach an unprecedented 105 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 and 106 billion cubic feet per day in 2025.
The expected level of production underscores the lasting impact of the shale revolution. Over the past 15 years, the shale revolution has produced more oil and gas in the United States than any other country in history.
The EIA also expects Brent*** to fall to $79 barrel in 2025, at which point production growth is expected to "slightly" outpace demand growth. It's alsoBrent is expected to be $82 barrel in 2024。In the report, the agency noted:
"Our relatively small change in oil prices** is based on the expectation that global oil supply and demand will be relatively balanced. ”Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, said, "While production is increasing, it has nothing to do with any of Biden's efforts." ”
Since taking office, Biden has called on producers to increase production to curb oil prices, telling lawmakers last year that the U.S. will need oil "for at least the next decade." As oil and gas production reaches new heights, climate activists have lashed out at **.
The surge in U.S. production in 2023 has taken many industry insiders and analysts by surprise and surpassed the early days of the EIA**. Despite Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ efforts to prop up the market by cutting production, the increase** still weighs on oil prices.
Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, the largest producer in Texas, said in an interview last DecemberLast year's increase in U.S. production means that U.S. production is "very likely" to reach 15 million barrels per day in the next five years.
However, U.S. oil production growth will slow in the coming years as there are fewer high-quality fields and Wall Street insists on shareholder returns rather than allowing energy companies to invest money in new drilling activities.
At the same time, according to the EIA**, U.S. LNG exports will continue to grow as more export facilities come online. Exports will reach 11.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2023, increase to 12.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 and 14.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2025.
This month, there have been ups and downs as traders try to assess the outlook for the coming quarters.
The Iranian-backed Houthis launched further attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea, and these incidents continue despite the deployment of US-led maritime forces.
Nomura analyst Yuki Takashima said the oil market rebounded yesterday as the decline in ** earlier this week was too large and the decline in US inventories provided support for oil prices. He said:
"Investors' attention seems to be back on the global supply-demand balance. ”